The Goods (U.S. Edition) – Striking the Right Gourd
Welcome back to The Goods! This week we’re discussing the business of picture-perfect pumpkin porches, Americans experimenting with frugality and the potential ripple effect of a lapse in SNAP funding.
As the Louvre heist of more than $100 million in stolen jewels has everyone talking, brands are jumping in to “steal” the spotlight. IKEA took to social media this week advertising its BEGÅVNING glass dome as a perfect accessory to showcase small pieces of décor but noted it “won’t protect your Crown Jewels either.” Rule of thumb: if it comes with assembly instructions, it’s probably not heist-proof.
What’s In: This Week’s Trends
- Thinking Spring: In order to get ahead of potential new tariffs on China, S. importers for Walmart, Amazon and Target are front-loading spring 2026 orders and sourcing from domestic warehouses. Many small suppliers have boosted orders by up to 25% and are holding up to 50% more inventory than usual, even as warehousing costs rise and consumer spending softens. It’s a high-risk, high-reward move as importers face higher warehouse storage costs now but stand to benefit against policy uncertainty if consumer demand is strong in the spring.
- Striking the Right Gourd: Fall is filled with trends like pumpkin spice and 12-foot skeletons, and now there’s a new seasonal micro-economy moving in: pumpkin entrepreneurs and porch stylists. Homeowners are spending $300 to over $1,000 on picture-perfect porch displays featuring dozens of pumpkins, gourds and autumnal décor. Companies like Porch Pumpkins in Texas help design up to 1,300 porches per season, equating to 24 18-wheeler trucks full of pumpkins. Most of these businesses offer pickup at the end of the season and have partnerships with farms, using the discards as food for animals.
- Deck the Malls: Retailers are kicking off holiday marketing earlier this year, hoping to attract budget-conscious shoppers feeling the strain of inflation and the ongoing government shutdown. Executives from Kohl’s and DICK’s Sporting Goods say consumers are shopping earlier and gravitating toward private-label, value-driven products. Retailers are launching holiday promotions earlier than last year to capture shoppers who are visiting stores more frequently but spending less each time. Despite tighter budgets, shoppers are still expected to turn out during peak holiday shopping periods to grab the best bargains.
Cash or Card: Consumer Behavior
What’s going on with the consumer these days? This week we talk about the lengths consumers will go to make every penny count, the growing popularity of whole grains and what candy will be filling trick-or-treaters’ bags.
- Trying Something Frugal: As prices on everything from groceries to basic home goods rise, consumers are getting creative to make every penny count. Americans are experimenting with frugality by diluting their soap, buying pantry products on Facebook Marketplace and even saving on beef by buying half a cow to keep in the freezer. Procter & Gamble saw volumes decline 2% in the latest quarter in its home and fabric care division, which includes brands like Tide and Dawn. At the same time, private-label brands haven’t seen a corresponding increase, suggesting that consumers are using up their inventory and making their existing stock last longer rather than trading down.
- The Grain of My Existence: Americans are getting serious about whole grains. A recent Whole Grains Council survey found that almost three-quarters of consumers believe they should eat more whole grains, with 71% of respondents choosing whole grain foods for health reasons. Taste benefits are up for debate, with 43% of survey respondents seeing whole grains as a perk, and 36% as a disincentive. Breads, cereals, rice and crackers are the most popular whole grain options, but the Make America Healthy Again movement may drive market growth, as 38% of surveyed consumers choose whole grains because they are less processed than other refined grain options.
- Sugar Faddy: Parents, expect higher candy prices and opinionated trick-or-treaters this holiday. Reese’s peanut butter cups are this spooky season’s most popular treat, but with Halloween candy prices 78% higher than five years ago, some Americans say they may not dish out candy at all this year. Others may gravitate toward cheaper, trendier options like sour gummies, which are rising as chocolate sales drop under the weight of cocoa costs. Social media trends like candy salad and autonomous sensory meridian response, or ASMR, videos are also shaping what lands in kids’ bags, while extreme sour flavors, freeze-dried textures and smaller portions keep trick-or-treaters on their toes.
Making Moves: Industry Transformations & Innovation
ICYMI, even industry icons need to reinvigorate their brand presence through unique and creative ways. Here are some new brand moves that you should know about:
- Fielding Influence: Lululemon is taking its performance playbook to the NFL and Fanatics Commerce by launching a licensed apparel line featuring all 32 teams. Football fans can now wear their favorite team’s logo on classic Lululemon offerings, such as the men’s Steady State products or the women’s Scuba hoodie. The partnership continues Lululemon’s move into sports after a similar collaboration with the NHL and a growing roster of professional athletes acting as company ambassadors. Lululemon hopes the collab will give consumers new opportunities to wear its products, while Fanatics Commerce is excited to offer fans premium gear that stretches beyond the typical jersey.
- Signed, Sealed, Delivered: Nordstrom is bringing back an old-school favorite just in time for the holidays. The retailer is reviving its physical catalog, a 100-page spread with more than 800 gift suggestions, ranging from budget finds to luxury splurges, with stickers for shoppers to build their wish lists. As Nordstrom faces competition from e-commerce and resale platforms, the retailer is betting that shoppers are craving something more tangible this season. As price is top of mind for consumers, the retailer has also dedicated two full floors at its New York City flagship to featuring gifts under $100.
- A Serious Con-tender: Despite chicken consumption climbing 19% over the last decade, KFC was the only major U.S. chicken chain to see sales shrink in 2024… all thanks to bones. Bone-in-chicken sales have fallen 4% across stores since 2020, while boneless sales have jumped 11%. While Gen Z is the most frequent visitors to fast food restaurants, they only represented 6% of KFC’s consumers through July. KFC is taking a page from Taco Bell’s book of limited menu drops – like its new bucket of tenders with sauce – to appeal to younger consumers, while also cutting prices and leaning into its nostalgic Colonel Sanders character to attract older consumers.
Capital Markets Corner
What consumer news is moving the market this week? Our investor relations experts break down this week’s trends and headlines.
- Just What the Doctor Ordered: Beverage giant Keurig Dr. Pepper (“KDP”) has been in the news a latte After KDP announced plans to acquire JDE Peet’s and spin off its coffee business, activist Starboard Value revealed its stake in the company, and investors raised concerns that the company was over-leveraging itself by pursuing the deal. This week, private equity firms KKR and Apollo Global Management helped ease those worries with a $7 billion commitment to KDP. KKR and Apollo will invest $3 billion in KDP’s beverage division and $4 billion in the new coffee business and a joint venture for manufacturing of its pod business. These investments are expected to significantly reduce the company’s net debt, helping ease market apprehension and stave off potential credit rating downgrades.
Word on the Hill
The Word 🏛️ As the government shutdown hits the 30-day mark with no resolution in sight, funding for the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program (“SNAP”) is set to run out Saturday, November 1, affecting 42 million Americans. Congressional leaders will not advance a proposal for standalone SNAP funding this week; meanwhile, a group of 25 states sued the Trump administration to compel agencies to tap emergency resources to fund the program through the remainder of the shutdown.
What it Means: A lapse in SNAP funding could cause a painful jolt not just for Americans who depend on these benefits, but for retailers of all sizes nationwide. The federal government distributes $8 billion in SNAP assistance each month, which is funneled back into the economy when used for purchases at grocery and convenience stores. For smaller grocers, that can make up more than half of their monthly revenue. Those funds continue to have a “multiplier” effect as they flow through businesses and the supply chain. A 2019 USDA study found that each SNAP dollar generates $1.54 in economic activity, in turn supporting about 388,000 jobs, $20 billion in wages and $4.5 billion in tax revenue, per the National Grocers Association.
Meanwhile, on the Street… A pair of viral TikToks falsely claimed that if Americans lose SNAP benefits, Walmart would be “locking its doors” on November 1 to prevent theft. (Walmart told Snopes that stores will continue to be “open for business.”) In reality, the threat to Walmart isn’t from shoppers, but from a lack of them: roughly 24% of total SNAP dollars are spent at Walmart, according to Numerator. That means America’s top retailer could face a nearly $2 billion revenue hit if benefits lapse for the entirety of November.
For more information about FTI Strategic Communications Retail & Consumer Products sector service offerings and expertise, please contact [email protected]
Get More Goods Here
- Retail & Consumer Products, The Goods U.S.
- North America
The Goods (U.S. Edition) – Rent the Wrong Way
- Retail & Consumer Products, The Goods U.S.
- North America
The Goods (U.S. Edition) – Spaghett About It
- Retail & Consumer Products, The Goods U.S.
- North America
The Goods (U.S. Edition) – Style High Club
- Retail & Consumer Products, The Goods U.S.
- North America
The Goods (U.S. Edition) – I’ll Post to That
The views expressed herein are those of the author(s) and not necessarily the views of FTI Consulting, Inc., its management, its subsidiaries, its affiliates, or its other professionals.
FTI Consulting, Inc., including its subsidiaries and affiliates, is a consulting firm and is not a certified public accounting firm or a law firm. FTI Consulting is an independent global business advisory firm dedicated to helping organizations manage change, mitigate risk and resolve disputes: financial, legal, operational, political & regulatory, reputational and transactional. FTI Consulting professionals, located in all major business centers throughout the world, work closely with clients to anticipate, illuminate and overcome complex business challenges and opportunities. ©2025 FTI Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved. fticonsulting.com
