Irish General Election 2024: How Ireland Voted

What it means

• Although Sinn Féin outperformed Fine Gael in terms of number of seats, the view is it was a poor performance for a party that – up until recently – was expected to lead the next government. In the aftermath of the 2020 General Election, the party’s popularity surged and at one stage they were as much as 15% ahead in the polls. However, the party’s popularity has been in decline over the last year and their share of the vote is down 5.5% on their 2020 General Election performance. It seems unlikely they will be part of the next government with both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael expressing a clear preference for forming another coalition together, rather than entering government with Sinn Féin.
• All eyes are now on how the parties will approach government formation talks, with the view that the next government will be another Fianna Fáil-Fine Gael led coalition along with additional support from either the smaller parties or independents. Combined, they hold 86 seats – just two short of the 88 needed for a majority; however, constructing a coalition that can withstand the scrutiny and pressure of being in power will likely require a more substantial seat majority to see out a five-year term. Although both parties saw a drop in their share of the vote compared with 2020 General Election, they have bucked the trend seen in elections held around the world throughout 2024 where incumbents suffered significant losses.
• It is thought that Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael have two options – look to form a coalition with a smaller party such as Labour or the Social Democrats or seek the support of a number of independent TDs.
• Both Labour and the Social Democrats have said they will speak to each other first, along with the Green Party to first agree a common platform of the left before any possible talks with the larger parties.

Reaction

• The line from Fine Gael is they will seek to build a coalition with Fianna Fáil based on “parity of esteem”; an apparent nod to the 10-seat gap between the parties. It is thought that a continuation of the rotating taoiseach arrangement and near parity in cabinet will be sought by Fine Gael. Given the gap, whether Fianna Fáil are agreeable to this may become a point of contention during negotiations.
• Fianna Fáil leader, Micheál Martin said the party had a “very clear route” back to government after the election and that “very detailed work will have to be done in terms of a programme for government” during negotiations.
• Sinn Féin have already initiated the post-election discussions by writing to Labour and the Social Democrats. The party’s housing spokesperson, Eoin Ó Broin said “there is now a far larger and more cohesive progressive left, republican bloc between Sinn Féin, Labour and the Soc Dems”. While the parties don’t have the numbers to form a government, they may come together on an agreed approach to negotiations and/or their position as opposition in the Dáil.
• The Labour Party appears to be split on whether they should consider entering a coalition with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, with some of their TDs insisting they will not go into coalition with the two parties alone while others have stated they have a mandate to do so. Leader Ivana Bacik has said at this stage they are not willing to go into talks alone and are “very serious about entering talks on a common platform on the left and then seeing whether we can shape the policies of the next government in a centre-left direction.”
• The Social Democrats have said they are willing to talk to all parties but have clear red lines and five dealbreakers: housing, health, disability, climate and childcare.
• Green Party Leader Roderic O’Gorman, the only member of his party to be elected, acknowledged the disappointing result for the party, saying: “it’s hard for a smaller party in government, that’s long been the tradition, the history in Ireland”. He added that the party stands over their record in the outgoing government, adding: “We’ll still be around, we’ll still believe in what we believe in, and when the tide comes back in for us, we’ll still put ourselves forward.”
• A number of independents and members of Independent Ireland have also spoken about their readiness to support a government if approached.
• The fall in voter turnout has also reignited the conversation around the accuracy of the Electoral Register and reforming the approach to voting to make it easier for voters and address voter apathy.

What happens next

• Parliamentary party meetings are taking place this week, where the newly elected TDs will decide their positions and approach to government formation talks.
• After this, it is expected that parties will begin engaging with one another before any formal negotiations take place to agree a possible Programme for Government and the division of cabinet positions between the coalition partners.
• Once a deal to form a government has been reached, the Dáil will convene to vote on the new government and a new Taoiseach. The new Taoiseach’s first task will be to appoint a cabinet.
• Although the Dáil is scheduled to reconvene on 18 December, it is unlikely that talks will have concluded by then and a new government is not expected to be agreed until next year.
• Fianna Fáil leader, Micheál Martin has hinted that it will be important to have a new government in place for US President Elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on 20 January 2025, to provide stability and prepare for any potential impacts his presidency may have on Ireland’s economy.
• In the interim, the outgoing government will remain in place as a ‘caretaker’ government.

For more information, please reach out to the FTI Consulting Dublin team.