FTI Consulting UK Public Affairs Snapshot: A New Era for Wales

“Something has stirred in the Soul of Wales”, declaimed Wales’s first non-Labour First Minister, Rhun ap Iorwerth, as he stood to give his first speech in the Senedd as head of a new soft-left, nationalist Welsh Government. 

On 7th May, breaking 27 years of continuous Welsh Labour governance in Cardiff Bay, and over a century of single-party dominance in Wales, Plaid Cymru became the largest party at the Senedd elections. 

This result means that every UK devolved administration is now led by a pro-independence, nationalist party, for the first time since the dawn of devolution. 

Labour’s downfall in Wales, combined with a surge in support for Reform UK Wales, which won 34 of the 96 seats and became the official opposition in the Welsh Parliament, carries a certain irony. Despite “change” being UK Labour’s core slogan, in Wales, where Welsh Labour had governed continuously for 27 years, the vehicle for change was to be found in other parties.  

The rise of Plaid Cymru and Reform UK Wales as the official parties of government and opposition mirrors a broader trend of political fragmentation occurring across Europe, driven by growing public dissatisfaction with the political status quo. 

It was, of course, in the Valleys of South Wales, with its culture of fierce trade unionism and solidarity, that the Labour movement had some of its most significant early moments. The Valleys became a geographical region not just known for voting Labour but synonymous with British socialism, and home to Labour giants Neil Kinnock and Aneurin Bevan. 

There was always a Welsh flavour to this, not least given the area’s isolating topography and tradition of soft nationalism.  But the predominant feature was deep loyalty to the Labour Party. 

Yet, as of 7 May 2026, these areas are largely represented by both Reform and Plaid, with a swathe of Valleys seats directly split between the two and excluding Labour entirely, with 3 Plaid Cymru and 3 Reform UK Wales MSs, per constituency. 

These great historical Labour figures, and the incredibly lengthy continuous tenure of single-party dominance, makes Labour’s defeat in Wales arguably one of the most difficult losses the party has experienced in its 126-year history. 

In his first official week as First Minister, Ap Iorwerth has set out his government’s plan to get to work on cutting NHS waiting lists, raising standards in schools, generating employment, tackling child poverty, and standing up for Wales through seeking to secure a fair funding formula and further powers for Wales – including the devolution of the Crown Estate, justice and policing. 

The First Minister has been consistent in his calls for a stronger, competitive and outward-looking Welsh economy, able to generate the jobs required to entice young professionals to stay. He has previously expressed the need for further practical support for businesses, including a review of business rates. 

Ap Iorwerth has a significant challenge on his hands; Wales currently has the lowest educational outcomes, highest economic inactivity rate and lowest employment rate of any UK nation. In addition, many of the levers that can be pulled remain at national level.  

Many will be eagerly anticipating, after widely acknowledged similarities in policy positioning and ideology, whether independence really is the key dividing line between Welsh Labour and Plaid Cymru, or if this Plaid Government can further differentiate itself from its former co-operation agreement partner. 

Meanwhile, the official opposition stands read to create mischief, and there was heated debate in the first official interaction in the Siambr between leader of the opposition, Reform UK Wales’s Dan Thomas MS, and the First Minister, as they clashed over the mention of independence so early into Plaid’s first term in Government. 

The results on 7th May – from the local elections to devolved elections in Scotland and Wales – will undoubtedly weigh heavily on the Labour party. “Safe seats” have disappeared, and underscore a wider question for Welsh Labour: if Wales is no longer a stronghold, where is? This has also added to the soul-searching already going on in the Labour party. 

Labour in Wales now turn to Ken Skates MS, a Minister in multiple Welsh Labour Governments, as their interim leader. While well- espected, success in navigating a way forward will at least in part depend on the party’s ability to re-group at a national level, with the Makerfield by-election on 18 June set to be a key moment.  

But for now, in Wales, Plaid Cymru look ahead to a period of leadership they have waited decades for. Their tenure is, at times, likely to be difficult for Westminster no matter who is Prime Minister – all the more so should it prove a success.