The Kingmakers: The Parties That Could Help Form Ireland’s Next Government

Small political parties can play a crucial role in government formation in Ireland, often holding the balance of power in coalition-building efforts. With larger parties rarely securing enough seats to govern alone, smaller parties become “kingmakers,” deciding the fate of a government by choosing to enter a coalition with a larger party —or not— in exchange for key policy promises and cabinet positions. This influence allows them to steer the programme for government and shape policy in Ireland. Here, we look at the main proposals from these parties that could drive the next Irish Government.

Green Party

Outgoing coalition partner, The Green Party’s proposals place significant emphasis on supporting the green transition and reducing emissions, while trying to address key societal issues such as housing and infrastructure.

• €10 billion on public transport projects, including the delivery of the planned underground metro from Dublin Airport to City Centre.
• An average of 50-53,000 new homes per year, including 15,000 affordable and 12,000 social.
• Retain the higher rate of stamp duty of 15% on the bulk purchase of houses and duplexes, and the 6% rate on transactions over €1.5 million.
• €200 million for a programme of research and innovation for clean technologies.
• Convene a Citizens’ Assembly to explore the potential introduction of a four day working week.
• Continue to transfer excess corporation tax receipts into the Future Ireland Fund and Infrastructure, Climate and Nature Fund.
• Initiate a comprehensive e-health strategy, including a digital system for prescriptions and a nationwide programme covering primary care, elective hospitals, acute hospitals, and emergency services.
• Investment in the electricity grid.
• Promote two new interconnectors with the UK and two new interconnection points with mainland Europe, including new hybrid interconnections with offshore wind projects in the Designated Maritime Area Plan (DMAP) development zones.
• Only support the development of new data centres if developers can demonstrate that they can be 100% carbon neutral, do not threaten agriculture or our security of electricity supply, and do not risk overwhelming the grid.
• Implement EU regulations such as the Digital Services Act, Digital Markets Act, and AI Act.
• Scale up national digital regulators such as Coimisiún na Meán, ComReg, and the Competition and Consumer Protection Commission to become a leader in the ethical use of AI.
• Move towards a system of public banking, with post offices more involved in the provision of financial services.
• Work with the major international technology companies registered in Ireland to reduce the volume of data being stored, including considering how best to coordinate a data amnesty with the aim of deleting unused data more than 10 years old.
• Double the area of agricultural land being farmed organically to 10% by 2030.
• Establish a taskforce to plan for the eventuality of the Nitrates Derogation coming to an end.
• Support farmers in the transition from fertiliser-dependant grassland swards to more resilient, self-fertile varieties which promote soil health.

Labour Party

The Labour Party’s manifesto makes no commitments to cut taxes. Instead, their policies focus on improving public services, delivering housing and infrastructure, and supporting businesses and individuals.

• An average of 50,000 homes a year, scaling up to 60,000 a year, with a long term goal of 20% social housing.
• €6 billion to seed a new State Construction Company.
• A State Investment and Development Bank that will finance private housing development using a portion of the €8.4 billion placed in the Future Ireland Fund.
• An increase in stamp duty on non-residential property and the bulk buying of houses and apartments to incentivise the delivery of new homes.
• €2.5 billion for major public transport projects and balanced regional development.
• A levy on the electricity use of data centres starting at €10/MwH.
• €1 billion for the State to take direct equity stakes in offshore wind developments.
• Outline a new framework to deliver critical enabling infrastructure such as grid, ports, and advanced energy parks.
• Double the rate of the Banking Levy and the inclusion of digital banks within its scope.
• Position Ireland to become a global leader in sustainable climate finance, and fintech with measures to promote growth and sustain employment. This will involve an in-depth study of the potential risks to Ireland from the large non-bank financial sector, and the over €4.5 trillion in assets under management in Ireland.
• A dedicated Research Ireland fund to make Ireland a world leader in solutions for key sectors such as sustainable innovation.
• A new Department of Digital and Communications, with responsibility for the National Digital Strategy, digital inclusion, cyber security, data protection.
• A new Regulatory Innovation Office to enhance accountability, foster innovation, and provide investors with regulatory certainty to promote development.
• Review the criteria for issuing employment permits on an annual basis to ensure it is serving the needs of the labour market.
• Regulate the use of AI and algorithmic management in the workplace, and limit its use in recruitment, remuneration and day to day supervision.
• A national living wage, set at 60% of median hourly earnings by 2026.
• Ensure new parents can take a year of combined paid leave and introduce reproductive health related leave.
• Legislate for a strong right to flexible work to replace the current right to request.
• €500 million to support the rollout of digital health records.
• Ensure that new modern drugs are available quickly, improve the efficiency, and use new techniques like AI machine learning to speed up diagnosis and treatment.
• A new clinically led pilot programme that would allow oncologists to prescribe medicines that have been approved by the European Medicines Agency but are not available yet for reimbursement to public patients in Ireland.
• A new system to more than double the number of clinical trials.
• Support an EU-UK sanitary and phytosanitary deal to reduce red tape on agri-food exports.
• To address nitrates, devise catchment-based strategies to reverse the decline in water quality attributable to excessive nutrient losses from livestock farming.

Social Democrats

The Social Democrats’ policies focus on affordable housing, delivering a more equitable health services, a clean environment and disability services.

• Build 75,000 affordable homes over a 5-year term; 50,000 for affordable purchase and 25,000 as affordable rental homes.
• Introduce a three-year rent freeze.
• Remove tax exemptions and reliefs for REITs and other investment funds in the property sector and put in place an effective ban on bulk purchasing homes, including apartments, by increasing the special rate of stamp duty on bulk purchases to 100 per cent.
• Fully fund the eHealth strategy within the next five years.
• Capitalise a €5 billion Climate Transformation Fund from the corporation tax windfalls and other one-off windfall receipts to invest in state-owned wind energy capacity.
• Invest to improve the interconnectivity between Ireland and other countries.
• Ensure a fair transition for farmers via the creation of a €1.5 billion Fair Transition Fund for the agriculture and food sector.
• Seek to secure a national ceiling (at EU level) on individual CAP payments, set at a level that would ensure a greater proportion of the payments will go to small and medium-sized family farms.
• Enact a moratorium on the development of data centres and the issuing of planning decisions as an interim measure until an economic, environmental and energy impact risk analysis has been carried out.
• Legislate to improve Irish employees’ right to flexible work.
• Establish a Commission to research, trial and set out a pathway to the introduction of a right to flexible work including working from home, term-time working, and a 4-day week.
• Make it compulsory for employers with more than 250 employees to make publicly available their policies regarding their financial contributions to Maternity Leave, Paternity Leave and Parents’ Leave for their employees.
• Work with the postal service and credit unions to build a strong community banking sector.
• Introduce a domestic framework for stronger regulation of the development of AI, with particular attention to the role of large technology companies, in line with recent European directives and regulations.
• Establish independent AI regulators with sufficient resources, and an advisory forum of representatives from civil society organisations with fundamental rights expertise.
• Expand the mandate of Coimisiún na Meán to have authority to instruct for content to be taken down from online platforms on the basis that it represents misinformation or disinformation.
• Increase funding from the Bank Levy.
• Increase Stamp Duty on shares.
• Conduct a new, comprehensive and independent ‘Spillover Analysis’ of Ireland’s tax policies, examining existing anti-avoidance measures, and any potential negative impacts on the economies of developing countries.

Independent Ireland

The main focus for newcomer Independent Ireland is delivering for rural communities and farmers, with policies focused on supporting agriculture in the face of climate challenges.  

• Reduce VAT on building materials to spur construction, increase supply of homes, and reduce costs.
• Increase infrastructure funding for community and social housing.
• Enable An Post to deliver a full suite of banking services in rural Ireland by creating a new commercial bank in conjunction with credit unions.
• Freeze all “green taxes”.
• Reduce taxation on overtime to fill staffing shortages.
• Encourage airlines to expand operations at Cork, Shannon, and Ireland West (Knock) airports to alleviate pressure on Dublin and expand commercial opportunities country-wide.
• Create “Green Technology and Innovation Tax-free Zones” for entities who create high-end jobs in rural areas.
• Create self-sustaining “Data Centre Zones” while preserving the aesthetic and domestic industries in rural Ireland.
• Modernise and reform planning process for wind farm development, including a cost-benefit analysis of subsidies; harmonize regulations with other EU countries.
• Increase the number of medicines a pharmacist can prescribe to reduce demand on doctors.
• Support Ireland’s role within the European Union, but oppose joining a multinational EU Defence Force.
• Oppose the Mercosur Trade deal.
• Oppose any reduction in derogation level and support farmers with water quality challenges.
• Ensure continuation of live export markets and oppose EU policies that threaten them
• Ensure continuation of live export markets and oppose EU policies that threaten them.
• Engage with EU to ensure CAP budget is fit for purpose and addresses the issues for which it was originally designed.

For more information, please reach out to the FTI Consulting Dublin team.