The Goods (U.S. Edition) – I Herd a Rumor
Welcome back to The Goods! Welcome back to The Goods! This week we’re discussing big food’s move away from synthetic dyes, the $10 billion spending gap between Mother’s Day and Father’s Day, and a looming brawl over bras.
Cocktail hour caviar, 80,000 rose stems, air conditioned ancient castles…these aren’t just any destination weddings, they are “super-weddings” hosted by the super-wealthy. Akin to music festivals in size and with costs running into the millions, weddings for the world’s wealthiest couples have turned wedding planners into wedding producers. One planner recalls sending a courier on a private jet from London to the Maldives to deliver celery salt – simply because the couple felt their Bloody Mary cocktails needed it.
What’s In: This Week’s Trends
- A Hill to Dye On: In response to the growing scrutiny of synthetic dyes, Kraft Heinz – maker of Kraft Mac & Cheese, Heinz ketchup, Jell-O and Capri-Sun – announced it will remove synthetic food coloring from all of its products sold in the U.S. by the end of 2027. Secretary of Health of Human Services Robert F. Kennedy Jr. applauded the move on Tuesday, writing in a post on X that Kraft Heinz’s decision “proves that when the government sets clear, science-based standards, the food industry listens and acts.” Days later, General Mills also announced it will remove artificial dyes from all U.S. retail products by the end of 2027, and even sooner will phase them out of U.S. cereals and K-12 school offerings.
- I Herd a Rumor: In 2023, global food giants from Danone to Nestlé pledged to reduce methane emissions from their sprawling dairy supply chains as part of the Dairy Methane Action Alliance. However, as of mid-2025, only three out of 11 companies published compliant action plans, and just one set a concrete reduction target. The lackluster results come as companies across various industries are turning away from sustainability initiatives. There are proven methods for curbing dairy methane, but they come at a price. Bovaer, a feed additive that reduces methane from cow belches by about 30%, costs about $75 per animal per year.
- Staying In, Spending Less: Hispanic consumers hold approximately $2.1 trillion in spending power, but fear surrounding recent immigration raids compounded by persistent inflation and job losses have CPG companies, food and beverage makers, restaurants and retailers feeling pressure. Presidents Trump’s sweeping deportation policies are leading many Hispanic shoppers to forgo their regular shopping trips and restaurant meals, and take their shopping online. Colgate-Palmolive, Modelo brewer Constellation Brands and restaurant chain Wingstop have all told investors in recent months that a decrease in Hispanic spending is hurting their sales.
Cash or Card: Consumer Behavior
What’s going on with the consumer these days? This week we’re discussing consumer confidence after months of tariff uncertainty, why Mother’s Day spending topped Father’s Day, and how smaller amusement parks are trying to find the fun in funds.
- Sentiment To Be: S. consumer sentiment rebounded sharply in June, rising 16% – the largest monthly gain since January 2024 – according to the University of Michigan’s latest Consumer Sentiment Index. Expectations for one-year inflation also fell from 6.6% in May to 5.1% in June, the steepest monthly drop since 2001, as Americans wrapped their minds around President Trump’s tariffs. According to Joanne Hsu, the survey’s director, “Consumers appear to have settled somewhat from the shock of the extremely high tariffs announced in April. However, consumers still perceive wide-ranging downside risks to the economy.”
- Mom-umental Spending: Americans consistently spend more on Mother’s Day than Father’s Day, with consumers spending $10.1 billion more on their moms this year, according to the National Retail Federation. Some experts believe the greater spending on moms reflects their larger household role, while others note the short window between the two holidays means that budgets are tighter by the time Father’s Day rolls around. Until Father’s Day no longer competes on the calendar with summer vacations and post-Memorial Day fatigue, dads can likely continue to expect socks and ties.
- Strapped (In) for Cash: Families who aren’t up for the cost of a summer vacation at big amusement parks like Disney World often opt for trips to regional parks, but with tariffs on the table, they might just stay home. Regional amusement parks are feeling the squeeze of tariffs on their bottom lines, as tariffs on Chinese goods mean parks are paying more for ride parts and prizes like plush bears and basketballs. While the U.S. Travel Association expects Americans to take nearly 2 billion trips this year – an increase of 2% from last year – many are leaning toward shorter and more budget-friendly outings, carefully plotting out their spending for each day of vacation.
Making Moves: Industry Transformations & Innovation
ICYMI, even industry icons need to reinvigorate their brand presence through unique and creative ways. Here are some new brand moves that you should know about:
- A Change Will Zoo You Good: More attractions like zoos, museums, and aquariums have introduced dynamic pricing – adjusting ticket costs based on demand and other factors – in order to boost post-pandemic attendance. Ticket prices were traditionally adjusted seasonally, with only 1% of attractions using dynamic pricing. Now, an estimated 17% of attractions utilize dynamic pricing, allowing patrons to save money when buying tickets further in advance or during less popular visit days. Barely half of U.S. museums, zoos, science centers, and similar institutions have fully recovered to their pre-Covid attendance levels.
- Play-I Time: ChatGPT developer OpenAI has teamed up with Mattel – the maker of Barbie, Hot Wheels, and UNO – to design, and in some cases power, toys and other products based on its brands. The technology could include the creation of digital assistants based on Mattel characters, or be used to make toys and games like the Magic 8 Ball or Uno more interactive. While specifics are still under wraps, the first AI-powered product is expected to drop later this year. The move comes as Mattel faces slowing toy sales and tariff pressures, prompting it to withdraw its annual forecast last month.
- Fashion Fast-Forward: Fast fashion retailer H&M is doubling down on AI to gain a competitive edge against low-cost, online brands like Shein and Temu. Shein surpassed both H&M and Zara in share of the global apparel market last year, reaching 1.5%, according to GlobalData. To compete, H&M is optimizing its store fleet by refurbishing key locations and closing others, cutting its global footprint down to 4,200 stores from 5,000. The retailer will utilize generative AI to improve the customer experience across physical and digital channels by tracking trends, optimizing inventory, and enhancing its pricing and marketing strategies.
Capital Markets Corner
What consumer news is moving the market this week? Our investor relations experts break down this week’s trends and headlines.
- Ready to Bra-wl: The secret’s out! On Monday, activist investor Barington Capital Group revealed it owns a stake of more than 1% in Victoria’s Secret and intends to purchase additional shares. In a letter to VSCO’s Board Chair, Barington argued that despite strong brand visibility, the retailer has underperformed compared to peers and its leadership lack the experience and strategic clarity needed to drive a turnaround. The activist is pushing the company to refresh its board, refocus on its core bra business and unlock value in its beauty business. Barington echoes concerns voiced by Australian billionaire Brett Blundy, one of Victoria’s Secret’s biggest investors.
- Beauty’s in the Eye of the Shareholder: Industry sources say that American cosmetics giant Coty is exploring a sale of its luxury segment, which houses brands like Hugo Boss, Gucci and Burberry, as well as its consumer division, which includes the CoverGirl and Rimmel London brands. According to Women’s Wear Daily, Coty is in discussions with perfume maker Interparfums about the sale of its luxury business. Coty’s U.S.-listed shares jumped 7% on the news, though the stock has fallen roughly 25% year-to-date. Last month, the company slashed its annual profit forecast, postponed its investor day, and revealed planned changes to its manufacturing footprint to mitigate potential tariff impacts.
Tariffs, Ands or Buts
Consumers are scratching their heads over higher product prices, wondering if they are the result of tariffs, general inflation, or companies simply padding their profit margins. One study found that 30% of shoppers are blaming higher prices on “brand or retailer greed,” and 61% of Americans said they would like businesses to indicate how much of a purchase price goes toward paying tariffs, according to an Economist/YouGov poll last month.
At FTI Consulting, we help clients think comprehensively about the problems they face, understand their exposure, assess and mitigate risks, and manage change needed. Learn more about our Tariff Mitigation Advisory Solutions. Have questions about tariffs? Reach out to our experts Cory Fritz, Jackson Dunn, Ana Heeren, and John Whitcomb.
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