IR Monitor – 16 April 2025

In this week’s newsletter:

• Investors in Trump’s America can no longer see around corners. Regular guidance from executives on the near-term path of profit just got more elusive, says the Lex column
• Activists are getting into the podcast game, writes Bloomberg’s Matt Levine
• Stock buybacks present solid trade-war trade-off: in the view of Reuters, launching a buyback when shares are discounted due to market chaos is a smart use of  capital 
• Reading between the lines when a CEO steps down: investors can deduce a lot from farewell statements, argues Jonathan Guthrie in the Financial Times
• Fortune magazine: what leaders should say to investors when their stock is crashing
• And finally …your IR monitor correspondents Rose Zu and Maxime Lopes have just contributed new chapters to the fifth edition of Reputation Management.

This week’s news

Guidance from executives on near-term profit just got more elusive 

Unpredictable legislation and volatile markets are having significant effects on near-term company reporting across the US and this has led to companies electing to stop offering quarterly earnings guidance, says the FT. Earlier this month we saw large companies, like Walmart and Delta, stepping back from their forecasts. As markets fluctuate, it is becoming increasingly difficult to produce reliable forecasts, which will probably lead to other  companies withdrawing guidance. As a result, the gaps between analyst models and actual results will widen and analysts will need to be more comfortable with the fact that they will make mistakes more often.

Activists are getting into podcasts 

As podcasts become increasingly popular, one activist fund has now decided to turn its hand to this means of communication, highlights Bloomberg. The example Matt Levine gives is Elliott Investment Management, which launched a podcast while it was running a proxy fight at Southwest (which, in the end, Elliott won for the most part). Elliott has since started another podcast focused on Phillips 66, a company where Elliott is a top five shareholder, featuring the hedge fund’s nominees and industry experts. Matt is hoping Elliott will launch a Serial-style narrative podcast…but we think that might not be in the cards for now. 

Stock buybacks present solid trade-war trade-off: Reuters BreakingViews

Dips in markets present opportunities for CFOs who are confident in their business model to invest in their own businesses, according to Reuters. For example, amidst turbulent tariff announcements and trade-wars, the chipmaker Broadcom has announced a $10bn share buyback plan, which should support the company’s valuation. This is not without risk as share prices of a company may fall at any time due to many different factors. For Broadcom however, the share price rose by 14% on the announcement.

Investors can deduce a lot from farewell statements: the FT

Saying goodbye to the CEO is a difficult & delicate job, writes Jonathan Guthrie at the Financial Times. Research by the New York Federal Reserve concluded share price volatility increased when a CEO was succeeded by an internal candidate but rose sharply when they were straight-up fired or replaced with an external candidate, which is why companies and their financial PR advisors try to make these occasions hard to spot.

How should executives communicate poor stock performance? asks Forbes

Communicating volatile stock performance is a necessary skill for company executives. According to Fortune Magazine’s expert panel, executives should prioritise providing employees with reliable information while acknowledging the real consequences that may come with a falling share price. Communicating with institutional investors isn’t much different. The investors are seeking transparency as well as signals that the company leadership is in control and thinking strategically.

And finally …Reputation Management

Your two IR Monitor correspondents Rose Zu and Maxime Lopes have just contributed new chapters to the fifth edition of Reputation Management. Rose was also a panellist at the recent launch. If you’re keen to understand the practicalities of working in IR, or indeed how IR is practised across Europe and the UK specifically, you can go straight to chapter seven on IR and financial communications, where Rose and Maxime have shared their insights.