Global Public Affairs Newswire – 13 December 2024
Download a PDF of this articleWelcome to the latest instalment of FTI Consulting’s fortnightly Global Public Affairs Newswire. This week, we bring you updates from FTI Public Affairs teams across the world’s major markets, including the United Kingdom, the United States, the European Union, Ireland, China, France, Colombia, Germany, South Africa, and Spain.
Please note that this week’s edition will be the last Global Public Affairs Newswire of 2024. Our regular biweekly updates will resume from Friday 10 January 2025.
Our global team are closely tracking the key votes and contests in this worldwide ‘Year of the Election’. In each edition of the Newswire, we look to dive into the upcoming implications, considerations, and opportunities for business.
Government formation talks are continuing between Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael following Ireland’s recent general election. Despite winning more seats than Fine Gael, Sinn Féin have so far been excluded from talks, with both Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael ruling out going into government with them. Combined, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael hold 86 seats – just two short of the 88 needed for a majority; however, constructing a coalition that can withstand the scrutiny and pressure of being in power will likely require a more substantial seat majority to see out a five-year term. While informal talks with the Labour Party, Social Democrats and independent TDs (members of parliament) have already taken place, the two parties are expected to agree a joint policy platform before finalising a programme for government with a coalition partner. New government departments to oversee domestic affairs and infrastructure are among the differences between the two which need to be ironed out in negotiations.
It remains to be seen who the third coalition partner will be; their outgoing coalition partner The Green Party was all but wiped out in the election, with only party leader Roderic O’Gorman re-elected, and has ruled out going into government again. The Labour Party is believed to be split on whether it should enter government. Meanwhile the Social Democrats has had to suspend one of its newly elected TDs after he gave incorrect information about the timing of when he divested shares he had in a company he previously worked for that does not align with the party’s stance on certain geopolitical issues. A number of independent TDs have joined forces to negotiate as a bloc. Negotiations are expected to take a number of weeks and a new government is not expected to be agreed until at least January.
Germany’s Federal Election is more than a national event — it’s a defining moment with European implications and beyond. As the EU’s largest economy, Germany’s choices will shape migration, defense, climate, and economic policies across the bloc. At the same time, geopolitical shifts have also thrust foreign policy into the spotlight on the national level. In this edition, we explore how foreign policy drives the German election and its potential impact on the EU, along with an in-depth look at extremist parties like the AfD and BSW. Stay informed and ahead of the curve!
Click here to download the fifth edition of our Germany Votes insights.
Market updates
The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, has vowed to wield an “iron fist” to secure savings of 5% across Government departments, targeting waste within Government and Whitehall. Reeves, alongside the Chief Secretary to the Treasury, Darren Jones, commenced work in early-December on a multi-year spending review, slated for publication in 2025. The Chancellor has committed to conducting a “line-by-line review” of every pound of departmental spending, with the assistance of external experts brought in to scrutinise budgets. Covering the period from 2026 to 2029, the review mandates departments to achieve efficiency and productivity savings of 5%. To oversee the process, Reeves will convene “challenge panels” composed of external experts, including former executives from Lloyds, Barclays, and the Co-operative Group, to assess departmental plans.
The announcement highlights the Government’s determination to build fiscal credibility in a challenging economic climate, as well as its broader aim to reform Whitehall’s operational culture. Labour’s drive to identify savings stems from both inherited economic difficulties and its own political commitments. The purported £22 billion fiscal gap left by the previous government has created an urgent need to demonstrate sound management of public finances. At the same time, Labour’s ambitious plans for public service enhancements and infrastructure investment demand a robust financial foundation, necessitating difficult decisions to reprioritise spending.
The inclusion of external “challenge panels” featuring former banking executives introduces an additional layer of scrutiny, potentially reducing the autonomy of departmental Ministers and senior officials over budgetary decisions. While this expert-led approach aims to insulate the review process from political negotiation, it could also provoke resistance from Ministers and officials who may view it as an infringement on their authority. The Government are currently consulting on this phase of the review, including through collating feedback on spending priorities, with businesses asked to respond here.
With just a week before current government funding expires on December 20, lawmakers in Washington are racing to finalize a deal. A short-term continuing resolution (CR) is now expected to pass, which will extend funding into March 2025 and avoid a government shutdown just before Christmas. While reaching a deal on funding remains top of mind, two other legislative priorities are nearing completion: The National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA) and the Farm Bill.
The conferenced version of the NDAA passed the House on Wednesday and is set for quick Senate action, with Majority Leader Chuck Schumer aiming for final passage by next Wednesday, December 18. Meanwhile, the Farm Bill will likely see a one-year extension through the CR, rather than a full reauthorization, as the clock runs out in the lame-duck session. In addition to a one-year extension of the Farm Bill in the CR, negotiations are in process surrounding Coast Guard authority, permitting reforms, and changes to outbound investment rules.
However, none of these provisions seem guaranteed to make it into the final package, with House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries (D-NY) pushing for concessions on behalf of Democrats for any additional items. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-LA) acknowledged the complexities of adding provisions to the CR, and with time running short, it’s unclear how much will be included.
With next week’s funding deadline and the end of the 118th Congress fast approaching, lawmakers face mounting pressure to wrap up these key issues before the year ends.
During the first half of 2025, Poland will preside over the Council of the European Union, prioritising security, economic resilience, and energy independence. Amidst geopolitical, Poland emphasises bolstering European defence across external, internal, informational, and economic dimensions. This includes enhancing military readiness, supporting defence industries, and fostering cooperation with NATO and like-minded countries like the US, the UK, and South Korea. Poland will address hybrid threats, migration, organised crime, and the resilience of European democracy, with a focus on combating disinformation and cyber threats.
Economic priorities include deepening the Single Market, reducing bureaucratic burdens, and promoting fair competition for EU industries globally. Poland plans to enhance trade policies, encourage access to private capital, and support industries critical to security and competitiveness. Energy security is another cornerstone, with aims to phase out Russian energy imports, ensure affordable and sufficient energy access, and advance the cybersecurity of energy infrastructure.
Agriculture will also be a focus, advocating for a resilient and competitive sector that strengthens farmers’ positions while supporting environmental protection. Health priorities include promoting mental health, disease prevention, and secure EU medicine supplies. In all efforts, Poland stresses collaboration, unity, and incentives over penalties to address challenges and foster development. This presidency aims to balance immediate security needs with long-term growth and sustainability across sectors.
On December 9, the Politburo convened to analyze and chart the course for China’s economic strategy in 2025. Many of the decisions made are expected to shape the agenda of the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference. The Politburo characterized China’s 2024 economic performance as “broadly stable”, noting steady growth in national strength. It highlighted progress in reform and opening-up, the orderly resolution of key risks, and the successful attainment of the year’s primary development goals. With the principle of “prioritizing stability while pursuing progress,” reforming and opening-up remain to be China’s overarching theme, according to Premier Li Qiang’s recent speech at “1+10” Dialogue.
A key highlight of the meeting was China’s commitment to adopting “unconventional” counter-cyclical measures. These include more proactive fiscal policies and an “appropriately loose” monetary policy—a term not used since 2009 during the global financial crisis. China’s central bank is expected to cut interest rates significantly, potentially by 40–60 basis points in 2025. At the same time, analysts anticipate that increased fiscal spending could push the fiscal deficit higher, providing the central government with additional borrowing capacity to support critical sectors, such as the struggling property market.
Looking ahead to 2025, the Politburo identified expanding domestic demand as a top priority amid growing external uncertainties, with a strong emphasis on boosting consumption. To complement this effort, the government aims to “stabilize the property and stock markets,” which are considered key reservoirs of household wealth. These measures are designed to restore public confidence and drive economic recovery. A more robust domestic demand will give China leverage in applying further countermeasures for potential trade conflicts.
On 4 December, French Prime Minister Michel Barnier lost a vote of no confidence supported by the hard-left and far-right after he tried to force the social security financial bill through without a parliamentary vote. While the far-right National Rally initially refused to support the left’s attempts at voting down the government, seeking to portray itself as a constructive and responsible political force and to influence government policy, it ended up joining the opposition after the party leadership claimed it had not received satisfactory concessions from Barnier. Significant pressure from the party’s voter base to vote down the government likely catalysed this shift in strategy.
Following the vote of no confidence, Michel Barnier and his government resigned. President Macron immediately launched new political consultations in an attempt to build a broad coalition ranging from the centre-left to the conservative right. In a televised address on 5 December, Macron stated that he would appoint a Prime Minister tasked with forming a government of national unity “in the coming days”. He also sought to dispel rumours of a possible resignation, declaring that he would stay in power until the end of his term.
Macron also sought to reassure the public (and markets) that the 2025 government budget, on standby following the government’s collapse, would be managed through interim measures. He announced that a “special law” will be introduced in Parliament to extend the 2024 budget into the following year, ensuring the continuity of tax collection and public sector payrolls. This temporary fix is designed to avert a government shutdown while allowing a future administration to craft and pass a new budget in early 2025.
On top of a budgetary and political crisis, France is currently going through large-scale farmer’s protests driven by opposition to the EU-Mercosur Free Trade Agreement currently in the works. Despite the French government’s strong opposition to the deal in its current form, EU Commission President Ursula von der Leyen recently announced the conclusion of negotiations and advocated for the agreement’s adoption, paving the way for a potential confrontation with France.
On December 4, Colombian Minister of Finance, Ricardo Bonilla, resigned amid corruption accusations, marking a pivotal moment for the Petro’s administration as public finances face significant challenges. Bonilla’s Deputy Minister, Diego Guevara, has been assigned as Minister.
Bonilla, a decade-long advisor to Petro, stepped down after being accused of trying to allocate projects from the National Unit for Disaster Risk Management (UNGRD) to legislators in exchange for support on government reforms. Despite Petro defending his loyalty, opposition pressure and media scrutiny led to his departure. The shift comes at a crucial time for Colombia’s fiscal challenges: a projected 9.7% decrease in 2024 tax revenues, coupled with low budget execution and a deficit potentially exceeding COP $20 trillion, reveals structural inefficiencies in fiscal management.
Diego Guevara, his successor, has been in the government since its inauguration in 2022. As the new Minister of Finance, his technical expertise and alignment with Petro’s ideological priorities position him as a key player in managing the high fiscal deficit and stimulating economic recovery.
This transition at the Ministry of Finance marks an effort to address the government’s legitimacy crisis, rebuild political alliances, and establish a clear economic direction in the face of growing uncertainty. However, his success will hinge on his ability to restore market confidence and build consensus within a fragmented Congress.
On December 11, Scholz requested the vote of confidence from the Bundestag, following the break of the so-called “traffic-light coalition” on November 6. Against the backdrop of this development, combined with low approval ratings for both the governing coalition and Scholz himself, the vote of confidence became the only viable course of action. A vote of confidence is a parliamentary mechanism used by the chancellor to determine whether he still holds majority support in the parliament. In the history of the Federal Republic of Germany, this has been invoked five times, with three resulting in failure.
Initially, Scholz planned to delay the vote of confidence until January 2025, citing the need to advance key legislative projects. However, speculation suggested a different motive. Under constitutional law, if the vote is lost, the Federal President has 21 days to dissolve the Bundestag, followed by new elections within a maximum of 60 days. It was rumored that Scholz aimed to schedule the vote so that new elections will take place after the March state elections in Hamburg—a traditional stronghold for the SPD and Greens—to capitalize on potential positive momentum. This planned delay, however, met with significant resistance both within Parliament and from the public.
Responding to mounting pressure, Scholz announced on November 12 that the vote of confidence would take place on December 16, with the official motion submitted to parliamentary groups on December 11. Should the vote be lost, parliamentary group leaders from the CDU/CSU and SPD have already agreed on February 23, 2025, as the date for new elections. The Federal President is expected to follow up on this timeline. This loss is very likely, as opposition parties have already announced their denial. Although the Greens remain part of the coalition, they have expressed increasing openness to future cooperation with the CDU/CSU at federal level. Speculation suggests the Greens may abstain from the vote, avoiding outright support or rejection of Scholz while strategically positioning themselves closer to the CDU/CSU.
After the loss of the vote of confidence, the Chancellor and cabinet would continue in a caretaker capacity, but legislative progress would come to a standstill. This status remains until a new government is formed, expected for late April, early May of 2025.
On the 1st of December 2024, South Africa assumed the G20, T20, and B20 Presidency, assuming the Presidency of the G20 with the theme “Solidarity, Equality, and Sustainability.” President Cyril Ramaphosa has emphasised the G20’s pivotal role in global policymaking, particularly in addressing climate change, underdevelopment, inequality, poverty, hunger, unemployment, unsustainable debt, and geopolitical instability. South Africa aims to use its presidency to advance Africa’s developmental priorities and amplify the voice of the Global South on the global stage, building on the work of previous presidencies, including Brazil in 2024 and India in 2023. Ramaphosa outlined key priorities for South Africa’s presidency, including strengthening disaster resilience, ensuring debt sustainability for low-income countries, mobilising climate finance for a just energy transition, and promoting the fair utilisation of critical minerals to benefit resource-rich communities. South Africa will also establish three task forces for sustainable development to address inclusive economic growth and industrialisation, food security, and artificial intelligence. President Ramaphosa stressed the importance of maintaining the G20’s focus on global economic and financial challenges without creating new permanent structures.
Additionally, South Africa will establish a “Cost of Capital Commission” to address debt sustainability and initiate a 20-year review of the G20’s impact. The South African government has emphasised the need for multilateral institutions to bolster their developmental mandates to assist developing nations recovering from COVID-19, slow economic growth, and poverty. As South Africa steps into the influential role of assuming the presidency for the next year, the focus is on leveraging this position to foster investor confidence and drive economic growth. For South Africa, the G20 presidency is an opportunity to reposition South Africa and showcase its potential on the global stage, as well as further championing the priorities and aspirations of the Global South.
The Council of Ministers approved on Tuesday the new Industry and Strategic Autonomy Bill, updating a regulatory framework that had been in place for over three decades. By aligning with European Union initiatives such as the Green Deal Industrial Plan, the initiative aims to revitalize the country’s industrial fabric. Its goals include reindustrializing the economy and promoting a more competitive industry, boosting industrial employment and productivity, supporting the energy transition, simplifying administrative procedures for strategic projects, encouraging digitalization and innovation, fostering a thriving industrial culture, and ultimately strengthening Spain’s strategic autonomy.
Under this revised framework, the bill introduces the Spanish Strategy for Industry and Strategic Autonomy, supported by three-year action plans, and contemplates the creation of a State Council for Industrial Policy to improve coordination between public administrations. It also permanently integrates the Strategic Projects for Economic Recovery and Transformation (PERTEs)—large-scale initiatives that were previously ad hoc—into Spain’s long-term industrial policy.
With updated objectives and improved governance, Spain is poised to attract innovation-led projects that capitalize on its competitive strengths and emerging sustainable technologies. In doing so, the Industry and Strategic Autonomy Bill lays the groundwork for a more resilient, innovative, and internationally appealing industrial landscape, ultimately reinforcing Spain’s position as a key industrial hub in Europe.
The announcement was celebrated by key Brazilian stakeholders, who hailed it as a “win-win agreement.” The National Confederation of Industry (CNI) emphasized that it would encompass one-fifth of the global economy, fostering economic growth and job creation, with benefits for 750 million people across both regions. Mercosur-EU trade exceeded R$ 590 billion in 2023, and the CNI expressed high expectations for the impact on Brazil’s economy and export diversification. For instance, in 2023, every R$ 1 billion exported to the EU generated 21,700 jobs, R$ 441.3 million in payroll, and R$ 3.2 billion in production. According to a study by the Institute for Applied Economic Research (IPEA), Brazil is expected to be the primary beneficiary, with a 0.46% increase in GDP by 2040 and a 1.49% rise in foreign investment over the same period.
Despite the initial optimism, significant steps remain before the agreement is fully ratified. First, it will undergo legal review and translation to the official languages of both blocs to ensure consistency and accuracy. The agreement will then be subject to a vote and approval: in Mercosur, by the member countries’ parliaments, and in the EU, by a qualified majority in the European Council, followed by ratification in the European Parliament. Additionally, the chapters on political and environmental cooperation would require national legislative ratification. There is no clear timeline for this process, and opposition from some EU members—namely France, Poland, Austria, and Ireland, concerned about unfair competition for European agricultural goods—could delay or even block the agreement’s final approval.
New Delhi’s antitrust crackdown on alleged anti-competitive practices by e-commerce giant Amazon and Walmart-backed Flipkart has escalated to the country’s Supreme Court. Late last week, the Competition Commission of India (CCI) filed a transfer petition seeking the apex court’s intervention to halt what it called “frivolous” litigation initiated by the platforms and their sellers to delay the investigation. Experts say this move is unusually aggressive for the CCI.
The investigation, which began in August, found that Amazon and Flipkart violated India’s antitrust laws by favoring select sellers on their platforms. Since then, some 23 lawsuits have been filed across five high courts by third-party vendors associated with the e-commerce giants. This probe presents a significant regulatory challenge for these platforms in a market where e-commerce sales are expected to surpass USD 160 billion by 2028, up from USD 57 billion to USD 60 billion in 2023.
In recent years, India’s competition regulator, the CCI, has adopted a tougher stance against foreign companies operating in the country. Traditionally, the CCI’s role was to foster competition and prevent anti-competitive behavior that could harm consumers or distort market dynamics. However, the regulator’s recent actions suggest increased scrutiny of foreign companies, particularly in sectors like technology, e-commerce, pharmaceuticals, and automotive.
The commission’s filing asking for the 23 cases to be transferred to the Supreme Court is likely to be heard this week.
Expert Analysis |
Irish General Election 2024: How Ireland Voted
After a short-three week campaign, voters in Ireland went to the polls on 29 November to elect the 34th Dáil (Irish Parliament). The polls indicated a close race between the three main parties – Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael and Sinn Féin. After three days of vote counting, all 174 TDs (members of parliament) have now been elected and the focus has turned to government formation talks.
Our Public Affairs team in Ireland look at how Ireland voted, what it means, and what comes next as the focus turns to government formation talks.
Loneliness: A Public Health Crisis – Part 1
Take a look at part 1 of our new series “Loneliness: A Public Health Crisis.” In this series, our U.S.-based Healthcare & Life Sciences experts delve into the pervasive impact of loneliness, examining its physical, psychological, and societal dimensions.
This first installment explores loneliness as a global challenge of increasing significance. We examine the underlying causes of human loneliness, its profound effects on mental and physical health, and its growing recognition among global policymakers.
EU Round Table
Last week, our FTI Consulting Brussels team hosted an ‘EU Round Table’ at their offices, focusing on ‘Advancing EU Competitiveness: Driving Economic Growth through Innovation and International Trade’.
The speakers included Paul Van Tigchelt – Minister of Justice, Belgian Government, Cristina Vanberghen – Professor, European Commission, Sohail Ali – Partner, DLA Piper, Oana Popescu – Strategic Communication Advisor, European Innovation Council, Peter Van der Stoelen – Financial Counselor, Belgian Permanent Representation to the EU, and vanassuda sudhidhanee – Minister Counsellor/Head of EU Section, Thai Embassy.
Electoral Pulse
We recently recorded the final episode of FTI Consulting’s Electoral Pulse hosted by our expert Anne-Sophie Deman with Hans Hack, our Head of FTI Brussels Office, as our guest.
Listen in as they recap on the EU Commissioner hearings, discussing what comes next and what this could possibly mean for dynamics shaping collaboration.
Upcoming Conferences, Elections and Webinars
- 14 December: Presidential election (Georgia)
- 29 December: Presidential election (Croatia)
- 29 December: Parliamentary election (Chad)
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