FTI Consulting UK Public Affairs Snapshot: SNP Conference 2024: A struggle for reset and renewal

Given internal expectations that the Conservatives would wait until the autumn for a general election, the SNP became the first party to hold its annual conference, opting for the final weekend in August. Less than two months after the party’s disastrous election night, its leadership still appears to be grappling with the loss of 39 seats – a blow that has left them searching for answers.

Compounding this challenging backdrop are ongoing financial difficulties, but the First Minister attempted to refocus the conversation on independence and strategies to regain momentum. However, the subdued atmosphere was a stark contrast to previous years, reflecting the party’s struggles and the erosion of its dominance in Scottish politics, which has intensified over the past two years.

Despite assurances from senior figures that the party remains in a strong position, this year’s conference served as a sobering reminder of the SNP’s downward trajectory, with the possibility of further decline looming. Nearly a decade ago, Scots took to the polls to decide the country’s future. Two months later, the then newly elected SNP leader, Nicola Sturgeon, delivered her keynote speech to nearly 12,000 attendees. Fast forward to today – with the SNP’s membership having halved since just 2019, with a drop of 10,000 in 2023 – and this year’s conference attracted fewer than 2,000 people.

While Swinney’s conference address lacked new policies or announcements – unlike last year when the then newly elected leader, Humza Yousaf, announced a significant council tax freeze – it was one of the most pro-growth and pro-business speeches seen at an SNP conference. This marked a significant shift from the policies pursued by Sturgeon, a change of direction that is undoubtedly being driven by Swinney’s deputy and Scotland’s Economy Secretary, Kate Forbes.

Swinney was unequivocal about the direction he wants his party and government to take, declaring: “I want my ministers out there getting investment, investment, investment in the future of Scotland. That is how we will grow the economy and create the fair and just society of our aspirations.” His decision to host a business day – a first for an SNP conference – will likely be seen as an attempt to attract investors and convince them that his party can deliver economic growth in Scotland.

However, these efforts may prove too little, too late. The Labour Party’s remarkable success in Scotland at the 2024 general election has restored its presence in Westminster to pre-2015 levels, and the SNP has so far done little to win back the 500,000 voters it lost. With Scottish elections looming in May 2026, the party faces an uphill battle to reignite support and draw the electorate back to the constitutional question – a question with which many now seem disillusioned.

MSPs return to Holyrood this week after the summer recess, and the First Minister is scheduled to outline his party’s long-awaited Programme for Government on Tuesday. Additionally, the Finance Secretary, Shona Robison, is expected to address the funding pressures that will likely lead to further cuts to public services.

Despite these challenges, Swinney is hoping for a period of internal party stability, marked by fewer controversies. This would allow the SNP to concentrate on what it perceives as the shortcomings of a power structure which, in their view, undermines Scotland’s full potential – rather than being a government that reflects those very flaws.