FTI Consulting UK Public Affairs Snapshot – Local Elections 2026: High-Stakes and Unpredictable Battlegrounds

Voters across England will head to the polls on Thursday 7th May for this year’s local elections, with 5,014 council seats across 136 local authorities up for grabs.

This year, Labour is in the spotlight, defending more than half of the seats. Many of these were last contested in 2022, when the party performed strongly – particularly in London – securing its highest borough seat share since 1971. But that previous high now leaves the party more vulnerable to a Conservative comeback and advances from the Greens.

Labour faced significant setbacks in last year’s local elections, losing control of councils in traditional strongholds, and pollsters warn that a repeat of such losses could see Labour lose over 1,000 councillors, increasing pressure on Keir Starmer’s premiership.

Expectations are already low, with signs pointing to a difficult night. However, any losses are unlikely to rival the scale of the party’s catastrophic 1968 local election performance, when even strongholds like Islington turned blue. Attention is also turning to the post-election fallout. Rumours of a reshuffle suggest some senior figures could be at risk of being sacked, though some see this as an attempt by No.10 to manage potential internal dissent. However, any move would likely depend on Starmer first surviving the fallout from the Mandelson vetting scandal and the damage done by the locals.

While the Conservatives are defending a relatively lower number of seats this year, their performance will be closely scrutinised as a measure of whether the party can rebuild credibility with voters. Gains in rural areas would be particularly significant, but general discontent with the party remains a challenge.

The election will also reflect the growing reality of multi-party politics in England. Reform UK, the Liberal Democrats, and the Greens are all expected to make significant gains, with Reform UK aiming to build on last year’s local successes.

This year’s local elections are likely to be highly unpredictable, and the most significant story may be how smaller parties, such as the Greens, Reform UK, and independents, perform locally, and whether any gains point to a wider trend to watch out for ahead of the next General Election.

Top five local authorities to watch:

1. Hackney

All 57 council seats and the Hackney mayoralty are up for election this May. Despite being a traditional Labour stronghold – having lost control only once since 1971 (resulting in no overall control (NOC)) – there are clear signs of a growing challenge from the Greens. Neighbouring Islington, Camden and Newham are also expected to see a similar Green surge. While Labour remains the favourite, rising support for Greens in the area could make this a more competitive contest than usual.

2. Wandsworth

Currently Labour-controlled following the party’s historic gains in 2022 when it took control of the Council for the first time since 1978, all 60 council seats are up for election. The contest in Wandsworth, an affluent area of south west London, will be a key test for Kemi Badenoch’s Conservatives as they try and recover lost ground and stabilise support. Alternatively, the 2022 shift could be the start of a lasting realignment.

3. Westminster

Westminster City Council, a Conservative stronghold since its formation in 1965 until the last election in 2022, faces a highly competitive election this year. Labour is fighting to hold ground but is facing a hostile local climate shaped by government policies that have not favoured the party. Many anticipate the Council could end up under NOC with the Greens making some small inroads.

4. Essex

Currently Conservative-controlled and has been for most of the past 50 years, the Council faces a potentially transformative election due to new boundaries. It is also important to note that in 2024, two of the five MPs elected were representatives from Reform UK which included Reform UK Leader Nigel Farage. A repeat of the 2025 local election result would see Reform UK take overall control.

5. Birmingham

Labour has run the Council – outright or in coalition – for most of the past two decades. With 101 council seats up for grabs, the party is expected to face a strong challenge from disparate elements on the left. Middle East politics has become a potent issue among many of the city’s ethnic communities and a dozen Labour councillors elected in 2022 have resigned from the party. Voters are also likely to punish Labour for the long-running “bin strike” which is still no closer to being resolved.

But those are not the only contests taking place.

Voters in Scotland and Wales will also head to the polls for the Scottish Parliament and Senedd elections.

In Scotland, the SNP is on track to continue its status as Holyrood’s largest party, potentially securing an overall majority. Key battlegrounds between Labour and the SNP include the central belt, with constituencies such as Rutherglen and Cambuslang expected to see tight contests. The Conservatives will be focused on defending their heartlands in the rural north-east and along the southern border, while the Liberal Democrats look to expand their presence in the Highlands, alongside the Greens. Reform UK is set to make serious ground in Scotland, with expectations that they will become the second largest party at Holyrood.

In Wales, the race for the Senedd is tight. Plaid Cymru holds a narrow lead ahead of Reform UK in the polls, while Labour continues to trail behind. Plaid Cymru leader Rhun ap Iorwerth has signalled a preference for governing as a minority administration without a coalition partner, though both Welsh Greens and the Welsh Liberal Democrats have indicated that they would be open to talks with Plaid Cymru should it emerge as the largest party.