FTI Consulting UK Public Affairs Snapshot: From fringe to frontline: Navigating the rise of Reform UK

After winning five parliamentary seats and 14.3% of the vote share in the July 2024 general election, Reform UK leader Nigel Farage said he would “change politics forever”. Since then, the party has continued to disrupt the political status quo and dominate the airwaves. Recent polling has shown Reform with 25-27% support, ahead of both Labour and the Conservatives – enough to win 192 seats in a hypothetical general election. It has also notched up a steady stream of council by-election wins across the country, looks poised for a parliamentary victory in the Runcorn and Helsby by-election and boasts membership figures in excess of 200,000 and growing. So is the enfant terrible of British politics growing up? 

Channelling the will to win 

Reform is in it to win it. It has identified endemic problems in British politics and worked out how to fill the gap in the market: by exploiting the collapse of public trust in the establishment and the breaking down of traditional party loyalties, and by providing a distinct alternative that wins votes, not just from both Labour and the Conservatives, but also from a new generation of young voters. 

The party’s strategy for electoral success hinges on its “everyman” appeal. Aside from Farage himself, it is exemplified by the selection of Luke Campbell, a 2012 Olympic gold medallist boxer, as their mayoral candidate for Hull and East Yorkshire. He is no polished politician, and that is deliberate. Instead, Campbell embodies the party’s strategy of fielding candidates with strong local ties, relatable backgrounds and would-have-a-pint-with-you appeal. 

That is deliberate. By capitalising on a growing apathy with traditional politics, Reform is positioning itself as an authentic voice for forgotten communities and an alternative for voters feeling left behind – while simultaneously fuelling those sentiments in its rhetoric.  

At the same time, Reform has acknowledged its reputation as a collection of boisterous trouble-makers and recognised the need to address its organisational deficiencies. This prompted the party to embark on a significant professionalisation drive under the leadership of chairman Zia Yusuf. 

This effort has included a shake-up of senior staff, the introduction of stricter candidate vetting processes and increased caution about sources of funding. The objective is clear: to project Reform as a credible party of government. 

Creating a policy platform 

Policy has been designed to build a broad issues-based coalition. Framed as common-sense policies to restore British culture, identity and values, Reform has pledged a freeze on immigration, significant cuts to public spending, withdrawal from international climate agreements and the European Convention on Human Rights (ECHR) and tax cuts. 

Recent weeks have seen more detailed proposals to scrap existing subsidies for renewable energy and replace them with equivalent taxes, and to abolish inheritance tax for estates under £2 million while reducing tax from 40% to 20% on estates worth over £2 million. 

These are pledges designed to cut straight to voters’ concerns and economic anxieties, capitalising on frustration about over-regulation, the cost of living and the high burden of tax. They are not necessarily designed to be particularly complex or even to stand up to sustained fiscal scrutiny. The point is to capture the imagination. 

Indeed, Reform is comfortable with a degree of controversy around its policies, on the basis that even a policy backlash means Reform policies are in the limelight and being debated. Doubtless, as the policy development process matures, the role of business engagement will also grow more prominent. 

The political response 

Dealing with the threat from Reform creates a dilemma for a Conservative Party very much still in recovery mode and conscious of the extent to which Reform is costing them votes and donations. 

The choice of whether to “unite the right”, in some sort of formal or informal coalition, or alternatively to treat Reform as a hostile entity whose stated ambition is to destroy the Conservatives, is and will continue to be divisive. Conservative leader Kemi Badenoch has publicly rejected a marriage of convenience, but party discipline is notoriously fickle, with some questioning whether she will even be in place to decide on such an offer come 2029.  

Labour, too, is deeply aware of the threat Reform poses, particularly in the deprived communities where Reform polls particularly well. The role of Morgan McSweeney as Keir Starmer’s chief of staff is important here. His political thesis – that Labour wins not by ideology but through a laser focus on the needs and the concerns of voters – was forged through battles with the Corbynite left and the British National Party. 

It is bearing fruit. Five years ago it would have taken a significant leap of the imagination to see a Labour Home Secretary boasting about “smashing” deportation targets, as Yvette Cooper has been doing. But such an approach has also sparked party divisions, with former Shadow Home Secretary Diane Abbott accusing Starmer of turning Labour into “Reform-lite”.  

Trouble on the horizon 

Those divisions are likely to persist as Starmer seeks to maintain Labour’s traditional base and appeal to voters tempted by Reform’s populist messaging, while also trying to work collaboratively with US President Donald Trump in the face of international security challenges.  

But the two are not mutually exclusive. Indeed, senior Labour figures have concluded that the biggest opportunity when it comes to striking a blow to Reform is through challenging Farage’s support for Trump and, implicitly, for Russia.  

After all, Farage has often boasted of his close ties to Trump. He has also commented that “rude” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy “played it very badly” with the US. He has, in the past, even expressed his admiration for Putin “as an operator”. And it is no secret that there is a portion of the party’s support that shares Trump’s antipathy towards Ukraine. That is – to put it mildly – not where the country is. 

This is a fluid situation in which much can change. But, if Starmer-as-statesman continues to play the role of international peacekeeper successfully, and if these diplomatic efforts yield results, Reform risk marginalising themselves at best and appearing as Putin apologists at worst, with Farage’s argument that only he can do business with Trump in tatters. 

Simultaneously, Reform faces major issues closer to home. Internal tensions reached a boiling point last weekend following the suspension of Rupert Lowe, formerly one of Reform’s five MPs, amid allegations of bullying, threats of physical harm and harassment of female staff members. It was even suggested to journalists that he had dementia. Lowe – a popular figure with Reform’s base and easily its most active Parliamentarian – has denied the allegations, calling them “vexatious” and linking them to his recent criticism of Farage’s leadership style. 

The fall-out has exposed deeper fractures within the party, and the Metropolitan Police investigation into the allegations threatens to overshadow Reform’s attempts to professionalise. Commentators have noted that incidents of this nature are not rare in political parties led by Nigel Farage. 

The next electoral challenge 

Whether these difficulties have caused significant damage to Reform will be made clearer at the next electoral challenge – the May 2025 local elections. Though some have been delayed until 2026 as a result of reforms to local government, the electoral prize remains significant. With a total of 1,641 council seats up for election across 23 councils in England, Electoral Calculus has forecast that Reform could gain 275 seats and become the runner-up in hundreds more.  

Reform will fight particularly strongly in former Labour heartlands and “Red Wall” seats across northern England and the Midlands, focusing on coastal towns and working-class urban areas where concerns about immigration and economic decline are prevalent. In Doncaster, for example, Farage has launched a huge recruitment drive geared to win seats in both the parish and city councils. 

Alongside this, Reform will target rural areas dissatisfied with post-Brexit agricultural policies and the loss of farmland to solar farms and data centres. One to watch is Lincolnshire, where former Conservative MP Andrea Jenkyns is standing to be the Reform mayor of the newly-formed combined authority.  Finally, the parliamentary seat of Runcorn and Helsby, where Reform came second in 2024, should be Reform’s to lose in the upcoming by-election. 

Much can change before then. But a swathe of Reform councillors – perhaps even local leaders – will create a new front to show the electorate what Reform is about and whether it can actually deliver. 

Other parties are likely to be forced into uncomfortable decisions about alliances and compromises. For the Conservative Party, the longer Reform polls in second place nationally and continues to make gains, the more challenging it will be for Badenoch to claim that Reform is the party splitting the vote on the right and handing wins to Labour. Indeed, it will in many cases be the Conservative Party performing that role. 

Meanwhile, the more elected representatives Reform has, the greater its platform for discourse and disruption on hot-button issues like immigration, economic policy and Britain’s post-Brexit identity – leaving others scrambling to keep up. 

One may love them, one may loathe them. But it will be very difficult indeed to ignore them.