FTI Consulting UK Public Affairs Snapshot: Conservative Party Conference 2024: Upbeat in spirit but a mountain still to climb

As the Conservatives gathered in Birmingham, many business delegates and seasoned political operatives noted that, while the conference was much less well attended, the atmosphere was much more upbeat than what they had observed at Labour’s conference in Liverpool. Shadow Ministers shared this sense of positivity, with senior Conservatives remarking to FTI Consulting colleagues that, given the government’s current woes, they now saw a path to returning to power in five years, which they had thought would be nigh impossible a mere three months ago.

Meanwhile, Labour’s gathering occurred amid a backdrop of negative headlines for the party. Accusations of sleaze and scandal surrounding political donations continued to be levelled against the government, which it has still struggled to shake. Internal unease continued over the Chancellor’s decision to remove the Winter Fuel Payment for the majority of pensioners. More concerning still for the government has been the polling released since, which has shown the Prime Minister’s approval ratings to be lower than Rishi Sunak’s, having plummeted by 49 points since July, and a poll by More in Common revealing the public now prefers the previous administration.

However, while the atmosphere in Birmingham may have been upbeat in spirit, many attendees also noted its lack of substance. At times, it was almost as if the party was engaging, en masse, in an act of collectively overlooking its defeat in July, the reasons it occurred and the very real demographic challenges it faces. Rishi Sunak, still the leader of the party, only addressed a small number of party members briefly on the first night before departing, and members of the Shadow Cabinet did not have the opportunity for formal set-piece speeches in the way that is customary. This was, of course, designed so that the four leadership contenders – Robert Jenrick, Kemi Badenoch, James Cleverly and Tom Tugendhat – would have the opportunity to speak directly to members and the small number of remaining wavering MPs.

Yet the indifference towards the leadership election was palpable, with most attendees treating the conference more as a reunion than an opportunity to engage seriously in the ongoing debate. Perhaps unsurprisingly, little about the contest has changed as a result. Continuing her series of ‘gaffes’, which began with comments about her time working in McDonald’s, Badenoch hit the headlines with controversial remarks on maternity pay and civil servants, which validated the concerns that some harbour about her political judgement and temperament. Jenrick revealed that his daughter’s middle name was Thatcher but had little cut-through otherwise. Cleverly continued his strategy of letting his fellow candidates trip themselves up without delving too far into the fray himself. And Tugendhat continued to struggle to find his voice, despite plastering the conference centre and nearby bars with assorted badges, stickers and bottles of fake tan bearing his name.

But while the conference did feel more of a mass networking opportunity, many in the party are still well aware of the need for an internal review into the previous government’s failure to deliver on a number of issues, as well as the importance of uniting to exploit the government’s current weaknesses. Such is the frustration for some that the leadership election is as lengthy as it is, given the state of limbo the party finds itself in as a result. Chief among these concerns is the upcoming budget, with many expressing the view that they would have preferred for the new leader to respond to Rachel Reeves’ first Budget rather than Sunak. Likewise, the current ‘interim’ status of members of the Shadow Cabinet has left some feeling personally in limbo, without their Special Advisers from government and being unable to appoint new advisers until the new leader is in place and their positions are confirmed.

For now, MPs will return to Westminster and prepare to whittle the number of candidates down from four, beginning a new series of ballots from 9^th October until only two remain. Jenrick is regarded as having already secured his place in the final two, but there are, of course, no guarantees in politics. Badenoch, once the front-runner, is now fighting for her survival in the contest, with some predicting that she may prove to be the upset of the contest and fail to make the ballot of party members, with Cleverly or – less likely – Tugendhat proceeding at her expense. This would cause substantial controversy with the grassroots, however, who strongly favour Badenoch.

Whoever emerges as the victor on 2^nd November will face a mammoth task to rebuild the party. And while Conservative MPs are encouraged by what they see as fundamental weaknesses in the new government, they are nonetheless conscious that the party will not be able to rely on Labour’s mishaps to provide them with a path back to power in the way that Keir Starmer successfully exploited the chaos of the Johnson and Truss years. However, such a “big picture” view of the future is what many felt was missing at this year’s conference, with little substance, little introspection and little having changed at the end of it.