FTI Consulting UK Public Affairs Snapshot: And then there were four…

After a rocky start marked by internal disagreements over the election process and its length, Conservative MPs have narrowed the field to four candidates: Robert Jenrick, Kemi Badenoch, James Cleverly and Tom Tugendhat. These candidates will present their pitches to the party’s membership at Conservative Party Conference, beginning 29 September.

The former Minister for Immigration, Robert Jenrick, is the frontrunner, a feat that would have been surprising a year ago. Having resigned from the Sunak government over disagreements on handling illegal migration and the small boats crisis, he has since become a champion for the right of the party on these issues, with some questioning how sincere this shift is or, at least, whether it’s just on an issue-by-issue basis rather than coming from a first principles approach. However, he does have a record of making free-market arguments, with his downfall as Housing Secretary largely thought to be due to his support for liberalising housing and planning laws – something that, ironically, might boost his credentials with younger Conservatives.

In the second ballot of Conservative MPs, Jenrick secured the support of 33 of his colleagues, many of whom stem from the right of the party. He has also sought to position himself as a unifier who can appeal to all factions, recently epitomised by the endorsement from Victoria Atkins, the former Health Secretary, who leans to the left of the party. Critics argue, however, that Jenrick has only adopted more conservative views in anticipation of the leadership contest following the government’s defeat, while his allies contend that his Home Office experience did in fact harden his views on immigration.

In second place is the former Business and Trade Secretary and Minister for Women and Equalities, Kemi Badenoch. Securing 28 votes from her colleagues, Badenoch is the clear favourite among the party’s grassroots. Known for her direct, no-nonsense approach and strong views on social issues from race relations to trans rights, Badenoch has embraced her image as someone who won’t back down, while positioning herself as more acceptable to the party’s centrist wing than Jenrick.

Her style is sometimes perceived as blunt, with critics labelling her combative, but her supporters argue that her courage, mettle and strong moral convictions are exactly what the party needs – and may be particularly useful in establishing trust, which is arguably the key issue facing the party. Badenoch has also criticised the previous government for not being sufficiently Conservative, which – the argument goes – led natural supporters to look to Nigel Farage’s Reform Party or to stay home during elections. In contrast to the previous approach, her supporters argue, her firm commitment to Conservative principles will be important in bringing back those lost voters and restoring a clear sense of purpose and direction for the party.

James Cleverly, the former Home Secretary, and Tom Tugendhat, the former Minister for Security, are tied with 21 votes each from Conservative MPs. Cleverly held his position in this week’s ballot but failed to gain new support. While both men are perceived as more centrist, this is only part of the story. Cleverly, for example, takes a tough stance on immigration, pledging to revive the previous government’s Rwanda policy if the party returns to power. However, this could serve only to reinforce his ties to previous administrations.

Meanwhile, Tugendhat is one of the most robust Conservative MPs on foreign and defence policy, taking hawkish stances on issues like China, which resulted in sanctions against him by the Chinese regime. While his campaign has been seen by some as underwhelming, he will argue that he, in fact, gained momentum in the second ballot of Conservative MPs and represents the fresh start the party needs.  Both men will argue they are better positioned to win back former voters from Labour, while critics will suggest their approaches might further alienate those considering voting Reform.

Following this week’s vote, all four candidates are preparing to make their cases at Conservative Party Conference. Each will have approximately 20 minutes to deliver a speech on the main stage – up from the 10 minutes the party was initially thought to favour. With David Cameron’s successful performance at the 2005 party conference in mind, this set-piece opportunity is seen by candidates as a golden chance to shift the narrative, emerge as the frontrunner and carry that momentum into the subsequent rounds of the contest.

Of course, each candidate will present their case as unimpeachable. Jenrick will argue he embodies traditional Conservative values and is the frontrunner with MPs, Badenoch’s team will stress that her principled stances and position as the grassroots’ favourite mean that her exlusion from the final two would lead to party “mutiny”, while Cleverly and Tugendhat will vie for the position of the unifier who can overcome the party’s negative reputation and avoid further polarisation. Recent polling by Savanta supports this position, showing Cleverly and Tugendhat as the candidates the public believes are most likely to make a good prime minister.

By 10 October, Conservative MPs will have narrowed the field to the final two candidates. These individuals will then face a ballot of the party’s entire membership, with the new leader announced on 2 November. But even with a significant number of MPs publicly declared, there remains potential for upset. Attention now turns to whether votes will be “lent” from one candidate to another in order to stage-manage who gets into the final two – creating endless opportunities for horse-trading and tea-room gossip.

Regardless of each candidate’s platform, many MPs – and those who lost their seats at the last election – are concerned about the bigger picture. With a much diminished number of MPs and a recent history of unstable leadership, the Conservative Party cannot afford further turbulence. Whoever becomes leader will face an existential challenge and a party that has forgotten the importance of unity and discipline. With high stakes and attacks persisting from both left and right, any missteps could doom the party for a decade or more. Thus, the stage is set for a defining Conservative Party Conference.