FTI Consulting Public Affairs Snapshot – Local Elections 2025: A Turquoise Tsunami

Nigel Farage’s Reform UK is on track to gain hundreds of councillors across England at the expense of Labour and the Conservatives. The Conservatives have so far lost over 500 councillors, while Labour has seen more than 130 councillors unseated. 

The Conservatives were expecting a difficult night, as they were defending 19 of the 23 local authorities up for election. So far, seven of these councils have already fallen to Reform UK, including traditional Conservative strong-holds such as Kent and Lincolnshire and authorities such as Derbyshire and Staffordshire County Councils, which the Conservatives have run since 2017. Adding to the turmoil, the Conservatives have also lost five councils to No Overall Control (NOC), including Worcestershire and Devon. 

Labour, meanwhile, have struggled to build on their success seen at last summer’s general election and make ground on Conservative unpopularity. Based on the limited results so far, the party seems to be under-performing relative to poor local election results in 2021.

Runcorn and Helsby By-Election

Labour suffered a painful defeat in Runcorn and Helsby last night after Reform UK overturned their 14,696 majority. Former Conservative councillor Sarah Pochin (12,645) defeated Labour’s Karen Shore (12,639) with just six votes, making it the closest by-election result since 1945. 

The by-election marked many firsts. Reform UK secured its first parliamentary by-election win, elected its first female MP, ended 52 years of Labour representation in Runcorn and handed Keir Starmer his first by-election defeat as Prime Minister.  

Pochin will become Reform’s fifth Member of Parliament in Westminster and her victory will be seen as a clear demonstration of Nigel Farage’s ability to continue translating the party’s growing popularity into parliamentary seats.  

For Labour, narrowly losing the Cheshire seat will be blow, having previously held the safe seat with a comfortable majority of 14,696. Former Labour MP Mike Amesbury won the newly created seat in 2024 but resigned as an MP following his conviction for assaulting a constituent, a scandal which likely contributed to Labour’s defeat. 

While many will be asking what went wrong, one thing is clear: suffering a defeat, in a traditionally Labour seat, this early on in the term is a worrying sign for the government. 

Mayoral Elections 

Four metro mayors and two city mayors are set to be elected across England, with Labour defending four out of the six.  

So far, five out of the six mayoral elections have been declared. In Greater Lincolnshire, Reform UK secured its first mayoral victory, with former Conservative MP Andrea Jenkyns becoming the county’s inaugural elected mayor, winning over 40 per cent of the vote share. 

Elsewhere, Labour narrowly held onto three mayoralties in tightly contested races with Reform UK. Labour’s incumbent candidate, Ros Jones, was re-elected as Mayor of Doncaster while Karen Clark won a close race for Labour in North Tyneside with 30.2 per cent of the vote share, edging out Reform UK.  

In the West of England, Labour’s candidate Helen Godwin won with just 25% of the vote. However, the result marked a significant decline in Labour’s popularity compared to their 2021 performance, which saw them claim 33.4% of the vote share. 

The only good news for the Conservatives came from former Peterborough MP Paul Bristow who unseated Labour’s incumbent mayoral candidate Nik Johnson, with 28.4% of the vote share, to become the new Mayor of Cambridgeshire and Peterborough.  

As the results continue to come in, it is becoming increasingly clear that voters have used these local elections to express their frustration with both Labour and the Conservatives. However, Reform UK’s rise is far from a fleeting protest vote, but a serious political threat reshaping the political landscape. 

With both major parties now forced to confront their waning influence, attention turns to how they will respond and whether they can regain ground ahead of next year’s key local and mayoral elections.