FTI Consulting Public Affairs Snapshot: Conservative Party Conference 2023: battered and bruised, defiant and optimistic

Despite polling showing that the Conservatives remain at least 10 points behind the Opposition, it has been clear for all those in Manchester this week that the party feels quietly confident about its prospects and believes this conference to be largely a success. 

Recent shifts in public opinion have also given the Prime Minister’s team the optimism that whatever polling lead Labour commands at any given time, it is more shallow than previously anticipated and can be reversed if the Prime Minister can deliver on his pledges and demonstrate the trust, competence and professionalism that he pledged in his leadership campaigns.  

Political people-watching is always a popular pastime among conference goers. As such, it as noticeable that former Prime Ministers Liz Truss and Theresa May were both ever-present this week. May made a speech underlining her belief that the UK Government should continue working towards Net Zero. Whilst she stayed clear of directly criticising the Prime Minister’s recent decision to change the UK’s approach towards Net Zero targets, her comments that Net Zero is not an “act of economic harm” but instead “the growth opportunity of the century” can certainly be interpreted as an attempt to rebalance the debate on green policies within the Conservative Party. 

As had been widely trailed, Liz Truss took the opportunity provided by this year’s conference to restate the case for her brand of low tax, small state conservatism. Speaking at the well-attended ‘Great British Growth Rally’, she expressed support for Sunak’s recent announcement on Net Zero targets but diverged elsewhere. She called for a cut in corporation tax to 19% because “economic growth and making Britain grow again is not going to be delivered by the Treasury…it’s going to be delivered by giving business the freedom they need to succeed”. She also called for shale gas drilling and a housing target of 500,000 per year.

Another feature of the week was the near-ubiquitous presence of Susan Hall, the party’s candidate for London Mayor. While the party’s large national opinion poll deficit and generally weak standing in the capital would suggest Hall is unlikely to defeat Sadiq Khan, her breezy manner and populist position on cutting crime and cracking down on “woke” ideology had delegates enthused.  At times, the talk on the fringe wasn’t if Hall would beat Khan but when. Time will tell whether she will make any traction against Labour – but she’s given Tories a reason to believe.

It’s perhaps unsurprising, given Hall’s popularity among delegates, that the Home Secretary Suella Braverman used her appearance on the conference stage to throw red meat to the Tory faithful.  She expressed her concern at the “hurricane” of immigration she feels is coming to the UK, vowed to do “whatever it takes” to stop illegal channel boat crossings and described gender ideology as “poison”. 

When it comes to taking a tough line on the “woke” agenda and immigration, the Tories clearly believe they’re into something. Polling, particularly among voters in the swing seats that will decide the next election, suggests they’re right, with the public favouring a firm line on bogus asylum seekers and excessive political correctness. 

This does appear, though, to be somewhat of a trade-off between short term electoral advantage and the continuing alienation of more liberal minded younger and city-based voters who have abandoned the Conservatives in recent years.  This trend has alarmed many on the “Cameroon” wing of the party who spent much of the mid-noughties repositioning the Conservatives as a socially-liberal, environmentally-friendly party.  If the party does enter into opposition next year, this debate will likely reignite.

The final – and most important – moment of any conference is the party leader’s speech. 

Prior to taking to the stage, the Prime Minister appeared to have chosen Commons Leader Penny Mordaunt and Veterans Affairs Minister Johnny Mercer to fire up the hall. Mordaunt’s appeal, in particular, was a classic of her patriotism-laden imagery of the 80s miners strike and victory in the Falklands war alongside staccatoed calls to for activists to “stand up and fight!”.  Rather predictably, the hall loved it. 

The surprise turn, however, was the appearance of Rishi Sunak’s wife Akshata Murty. Since her husband became Prime Minister last year, Mrs Murty has been an ever-present but silent presence by his side. Her performance today, where she shared a range of schmaltzy family anecdotes and personal reflections on her husband’s character, showed her to be warm, likeable and generous.  As the election looms closer, we can expect to see far more of her. 

Fundamentally, Rishi Sunak’s speech today was aimed at reseting his administration, refocusing his policy agenda, and reframing his party ahead of the next General Election.

On supporting Ukraine in its ongoing struggle against Russian aggression and his recent decision to water down the Conservative Party’s commitments on Net Zero, the Prime Minister was on solid ground. The room was behind his message – and, broadly speaking, the general public is too. 

Other policy issues, however, are rather more complicated.

Understanding that he was speaking to a party faithful for whom the pursuit of tax cuts is a sacrosanct objective, he expressed a long term desire to implement them while prioritising reducing inflation in the short-term.  The room clapped politely, if a tad unconvincingly.

His speech avoided detailed discussion of going challenges with the National Health Service and the recent RAAC crisis impacting schools around the country.  It did, though, lance the boil when it came to announcing the scaling down of the north-south High Speed Rail link.  Going forward, high speed trains will only run between London Euston and Birmingham, with the northbound link to Manchester abolished. While Sunak pledged to divert funds for high speed rail to regional transport projects in the North and Midlands, key figures like West Midlands Mayor Andy Street are incensed. 

The Prime Minister also used his speech to announce that the government is to table an free vote on new legislation that would see a gradually increasing smoking age to prevent tobacco being sold to anyone born on or after 1st January 2009. 

In the same way as a division on social issues was evident this week, a number of libertarian-minded Tories have expressed horror that a party that purports to favour freedom of choice and personal responsibility would advocate such an ostensibly illiberal measure. In contrast, supporters of the bans will be keen to present it as evidence of Sunak’s pragmatism and concern for public health. More cynical heads have concluded that, with an election looming, the policy must poll well. 

The Prime Minister and his team will be content with both the way this conference week has gone. 

His speech today has allowed the Prime Minister to take control of the narrative, differentiate himself from his populist predecessors, and instead position himself in a Thatcherite vein of taking the difficult decisions that may not be popular but are nonetheless necessary. 

No 10 hopes this will demonstrate that he is able to deliver the sense of change that the country desires – the sense that Britain is not broken. The sense of optimism, albeit a cautious one, also comes after what many in Conservative headquarters regard as a period of Labour mishaps, first on immigration policy and then on Britain’s relationship with the European Union. For the first time in many months, there is a sense that the Government is gradually shifting onto the front foot and taking the fight to an opposition that has shown some complacency. 

In the Tories, you have a party that is battered – but not broken. It’s fighting to win next year and this week showed us how it intends to do just that.