COVID-19 UK Political Analysis by Tim Hames – 4th December 2020

The size of the revolt by Conservative MPs in the House of Commons on Tuesday was in one sense unsurprising. It had been foreshadowed at the time of the vote introducing the second lockdown in England and plenty of parliamentarians had not been shy in letting their discontent about the new system of tiers be known. The rebels also had the luxury of knowing that with the Labour Party and the SNP committed to abstaining, they could exercise their consciences without seriously imperiling a central plank of official policy in the teeth of a pandemic. The actual numbers, though, at 55 MPs, understate the scale of the dissent that exists and that in turn means that party management over COVID-19 strategy is likely to become a growing preoccupation for senior ministers. It also increases the chance of a disconnection between what might be the politically expedient option and what fits with the scientific advice and evidence as the tiers are reviewed every fortnight. The start of vaccination next week will ultimately ease some of that political pressure, but not all of it. Indeed, in the short-term it could mean that more MPs are aggrieved at the reluctance of SAGE to recommend changes to the current tiers. Furthermore, Conservative MPs may be emboldened to consider expressing independent opinions on issues other than the coronavirus crisis. Almost a year after his victory in the general election, the Prime Minister has to deal with a parliamentary party in distress.