COVID-19 UK Political Analysis by Tim Hames – 20th November 2020

We have reached what is supposed to be the half-way point in the lockdown in England. Minds in Whitehall are deeply engaged in what might happen next. The Prime Minister finds himself part of that process self-isolating in Downing Street. This has the advantage that the opportunity for the media to ask him directly “what next?” is somewhat limited.

If he were somehow compelled to respond, the candid reply would be along the lines of “ask me in about ten days from now”. He and his colleagues have a sense of the range of options that they are likely to be presented with, but at this stage do not know whether the data on new cases and hospital admissions will simply force their hands irrespective of their policy preferences. The arrival of new information and models has compelled many a “refinement” (often a polite term for “reversal”) of policy in this saga so far, not least the one announced on October 31st which saw a system of regional tiers based on a “Medium”, “High” and “Very High” assessment of the local coronavirus threat suddenly suspended in favour of the new version of a lockdown in England that has now run for just over a fortnight. Yet by Monday November 30th at the latest, a decision will need to be made as to how society and the economy will operate once December 2nd is over. There will also need to be considerably more thought as to how what has been decided will be communicated than the leak-driven approach that had to be adopted last time.