COVID-19 UK Political Analysis by Tim Hames – 11th December 2020

In the circumstances, it might not seem in the very best of taste for Boris Johnson and the Conservative Party to celebrate the first anniversary of their general election win tomorrow. The country is still in the throes of the coronavirus crisis (albeit with the hope that has come with the start of the mass vaccination campaign). This is compounded by rising concerns as to whether there will be a Free Trade deal with the EU at all, and what a no deal outcome would mean in practical terms when we reach 2021. Added to these intense external shocks, the Government has also seen considerable factional tensions inside Downing Street itself, with the departure of Dominic Cummings from his position.

It is clearly far too soon for any assessment of what all of this will eventually mean for domestic politics. On coronavirus alone, while the phrase “light at the end of the tunnel” has been repeated to a point of exhaustion, the truth is that no one can be quite sure how long that tunnel might be and the extent to which some measures which would have been considered distinctly abnormal a year ago – such as an element of social distancing and the widespread use of facemasks – will have to continue even after mass vaccination has been completed, or how frequently mass vaccination will need to occur.

So, the Government clearly faces an agenda that it never anticipated, and can hardly be blamed for not having expected, at the end of 2019. It involves key political elements.