Colombia 2026: Navigating a Year of Structural Change
2026 will be a defining year for Colombia’s business environment. Legislative and presidential elections will reset the country’s political and economic mandate, shaping regulatory priorities, fiscal policy, and the broader investment climate for the remainder of the decade. For the private sector –particularly for multinational corporations – Colombia will remain a market with meaningful opportunities, given its strategic position across Latin America and the Caribbean. While simultaneously, the environment is becoming more challenging, where success demands sharper execution, stronger risk management, and increased strategic agility.
Get our 2026 Latin America Insights in your inbox – Subscribe Now
Operational Outlook & Success Factors
Companies operating in Colombia in 2026 will need to navigate two structural forces simultaneously: a constrained macroeconomic and political environment and persistent social tensions that continue to influence public policy making, regulatory and legal frameworks, and stakeholder expectations. Success will depend less on market entry decisions and more on how effectively corporations adapt their operating models, capital allocation, value chains and stakeholder engagement strategies to a more complex and politically sensitive context.
In this environment, competitive advantage will increasingly favor companies that understand not only their internal business fundamentals, but also how external variables — elections, fiscal pressure, labor policy, security dynamics, and social debates — translate into operational, financial, and reputational risk.
Constrained Economic and Political Environment
Colombia enters 2026 facing macroeconomic indicators that point to elevated fiscal pressure, persistent inflation, and a constrained policy environment. From a public affairs perspective and positioning standpoint, these conditions – amplified by the electoral cycle – are reshaping how investors and stakeholders assess the country: risk is increasingly evaluated case-by-case, rather than through broad macro narratives. In this context, successful strategy depends on deliberate positioning, sustained stakeholder confidence-building, and disciplined narrative execution grounded in a realistic understanding of the country.
This fiscal pressure occurs with GDP growth at approximately 2.9% in 2025[1], signaling resilience but not a robust rebound. Inflation remains persistently high at 5.1%, well above target range, significantly limiting room for monetary easing and sustaining relatively tight financial conditions.[2] Fiscal pressure reinforces these limits, with tax revenues underperforming by COP 11 trillion[3] and external debt reaching a historic 54.9% of GDP, increasing exposure to shifts in global financial conditions and risk sentiment.[4]
Despite these domestic and external pressures, including inflection points in the U.S.-Colombia bilateral relationship, Colombia’s decertification on counternarcotics policy[5], the inclusion of President Gustavo Petro and other government officials on the OFAC list[6], as well as volatility in global oil prices, the Colombian peso has remained broadly stable following the turbulence experienced between 2024 and 2025. Nevertheless, this stability remains fragile and sensitive to exchange rate conditions, commodity prices, U.S. interest-rate decisions, and domestic political developments linked to the 2026 electoral cycle.
Together, these factors weigh on Colombia’s international risk perception, sovereign credit outlook, and overall foreign investor confidence, influencing both foreign direct investment and portfolio flows. In practical terms, higher perceived country risk translates into increased financing costs, more restrictive access to international capital markets, and greater caution among multinational corporations when assessing expansion, reinvestment, or long-term strategic commitments in the country.[7] This encourages a more cautious approach to long-term or capital-intensive investments or partnerships.
Fiscal constraints have also pushed the government towards alternative tools, such as additional tax reforms and the use of economic emergency decrees as seen with Decree 1474 of 2025[8], fueling debate around institutional balance and regulatory predictability. At the same time, record-breaking 23% increase in the minimum wage through a presidential decree[9] with Decree 1470 of 2025[10] is expected to add pressure to inflation and employment, particularly in labor-intensive sectors such as retail, manufacturing, agriculture, and services.
While Colombia is increasingly viewed through a lens of sectorial exposure and regulatory sensibility, outcomes in government and public affairs are shaped above all by political alignment, social impact and timing. Reframing engagement shows that through sector-alignment, coalition building and quiet diplomacy, corporations and institutions have been able to navigate these circumstances and increase impact. However, this is only possible with comprehensive contingency planning, risk anticipation, heightened compliance approach, sector-specific data and concrete impact metrics.
Persistent Social Tensions
Social unrest and political polarization have been defining features of Colombia’s operating environment since 2018 and were further exacerbated by the COVID-19 pandemic. Persistent debates around poverty reduction, inequality, and overall quality of life continue to influence public discourse, regulatory priorities, national spending and expectations placed on the private sector.
For companies, this has translated into heightened scrutiny of how value is generated across supply chains, the tangible impact of ESG strategies, and the robustness of policies related to human-rights due diligence and corporate vigilance. This viewed not as reputational add-ons, but as core components of operational continuity and asset protection, reshaping how corporations engage with government officials, regulators, local communities, and, in some contexts, territories affected by the presence of illegal armed groups and organized crime.
These dynamics are expected to persist throughout 2026, with ongoing debates around inequality, access to healthcare, nutrition, education, pensions, and housing, as well as migration, internal forced displacement, and security concerns linked to the expanding presence of illegal crops, guerrilla groups and criminal organizations in certain regions.
The Year Ahead
In these circumstances, companies operating in Colombia will need to be increasingly intentional and strategic in how they engage stakeholders across their value chains. This is particularly critical in sensitive geographies —such as rural and conflict-affected areas— where understanding community vulnerabilities, institutional weaknesses, and local dynamics is essential. At the same time, these regions also present opportunities for the private sector to position itself as a credible partner in economic and social development through sustained investment, formal employment generation, tax contributions, transparency, and long-term community engagement.
In this sense, Colombia in 2026 will demand a recalibration of how companies navigate through a rarefied election and transition cycle. While political, fiscal and social dynamics continue to introduce complexity, opportunity is also created for corporations with a long-term vision and disciplined strategy execution. This context favors companies prepared to operate with greater strategic clarity, consistency and credibility. Colombia remains a relevant and resilient platform for Latin America, with opportunity for key industries such as infrastructure, energy, agribusiness, technology, logistics, manufacturing, and more.
References
Authors
Jorge del Castillo
Managing Director, Corporate Reputation and Head of Colombia
Jorge Del Castillo leads FTI Consulting’s Strategic Communications segment in Colombia. With more than 20 years of experience, he advises clients from the public, private and multilateral sectors on reputation protection and enhancement strategies, public affairs, risk mitigation and crisis management.
Mariana Mejía
Director, Public Affairs
Mariana Mejia is a trained lawyer from the University of the Andes. She specializes in advanced studies of economics and politics and has a master’s degree in journalism.
Related Insights
About Our Latin America Practice
FTI Consulting advises companies doing business across Latin America to navigate the stakeholder dynamics around special situations and high profile corporate events, from transactions and market entry to crisis, disputes and litigation. We help clients anticipate critical political, policy and reputational risks and effectively overcome them, unlocking long term opportunity. Our Latin America practice works in a coordinated manner through our offices in Mexico City, Bogotá, and São Paulo, as well as with our teams in Washington D.C., Brussels, Madrid, Houston, Miami, and other important hubs. Through our vast network of strategic partners, we have coverage on all Latin American countries.
Washington D.C. | Houston | Mexico City | Bogotá | São Paulo
The views expressed in this article are those of the author(s) and not necessarily the views of FTI Consulting, its management, its subsidiaries, its affiliates, or its other professionals. ©2026 FTI Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved. www.fticonsulting.com |
