Mexico 2026: Seizing Opportunity, Mitigating Risk
In the early hours of January 3, as U.S. forces swept into Caracas, it was already patently clear that 2026 would be marked by political disruption in Latin America. What was unfolding will inevitably reverberate through the region’s complex political and policy agendas, which were already in flux.
Talk of opportunity in Latin America remains and the day-to-day activities and legal obligations of many companies remain largely unchanged. Yet, to ignore that regional exposure is being evaluated as a potential risk factor would be a mistake. Views of those deciding policy and regulations and influencing public opinions are evolving and addressing their emerging concerns is a matter of material impact.
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Evolving Business and Security Environment
In Mexico, leading companies have known for more than a year that new business conditions were emerging. The North American security agenda has been front-and-center from day one of the second Trump administration (see side box). Looming large is the treaty-mandated review of the United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA), set to formally begin this summer, which most observers would agree has morphed into a full-blown rolling renegotiation. And the domestic business environment has been transformed by sweeping state-centric reforms adopted over the last year and a half.
The Trump Administration’s North American Security Agenda
On January 20, 2025, his first day back in office, U.S. President Donald Trump issued an Executive Order designating certain cartels as Foreign Terrorist Organizations (FTOs). The list of covered organizations, later issued by the Department of State, includes six Mexico-based groups along with others from Central and South America.
The legal implications of the move are significant. There are criminal, immigration, and financial consequences of knowingly providing material support to an FTO – in many cases, even under duress, and certainly when acting with willful blindness.
In a recent AmCham Mexico survey, 45% of respondents reported having been extorted by organized crime, and 12% stated that criminal groups had taken control, at least partially, of pricing and/or sales and distribution channels in their sectors.
The FTO designation was not an isolated move. It triggered a series of enforcement actions from multiple agencies. An impactful, precedent-setting example was FinCEN’s decision on June 25, 2025 to cut off three Mexican financial institutions from the U.S. system, leading to their collapse.
The new enforcement approach impacts regulated entities and sectors, but explicitly seeks to go a step further and lead to economy-wide changes in corporate and individual behavior.
From ‘Doing More’ to Strategic Action
In Mexico, responding to stakeholder concerns means accounting for cartels’ opaque but widespread presence in many regions of the country and sectors of the economy, and for the impact of their designation as terrorist groups. It also requires weighing various scenarios on the future of the USMCA. Companies also need to continue to manage direct government intervention. The challenge is not only to take effective action on these fronts, but to communicate in a nuanced manner the adopted strategies.
No single recipe for action has emerged, or is likely to emerge. Companies are being called to ‘do more’ on third-party engagement, government relations, operational resilience, and compliance and internal controls, among other fields, but what exactly is meant by ‘doing more’ is up for debate. Ignoring an evolving risk profile may lead to legal or reputational problems; focusing solely on it can result in substantial business opportunities being allowed to pass by.
More than ever, risk mitigation needs to be tailored to a company’s specific business model, geographic footprint, and areas of material importance. It is not the same to develop and operate a major fixed asset in an area with a strong presence of organized crime, for instance, than to manage a diversified financial portfolio. And even within categories of this type, companies are following different paths. There are sellers exiting the market, and they have found purchasers eager to step in their place.
To prudently pursue opportunity in Mexico while remaining within a company’s expected risk profile, executives are updating their understanding of enterprise risk and of how exactly it could become material. They are turning to purpose-specific programs to help their leadership teams generate integrated internal analyses and deploy timely and proportional preventive measures and responses to potentially critical situations.
Ensuring Access to Areas of Opportunity
While key questions remain unanswered on Mexico’s policy and regulatory environment (see side box), the outlook has become clearer over the last year and this is leading to major deals taking place. Significant transactions have been made in recent months in power generation, oil and gas, financial services, telecommunications, transport, and mining. Major investments have been announced in connection to some of these, and in other sectors such as pharma, retail, manufacturing, and data centers.
Stakeholder scrutiny, criticism, and action rise when more is at stake. The parties involved must understand and respond to what is expected from them by regulators, investors, shareholders, and others, and ensure that the merits and motivations of their actions are appropriately understood and correctly framed in public conversations. In market entries, mergers and acquisition, project development, and market exits, as well as in disputes, stakeholder risk management is often the difference between success and failure.
Mexican non-partisan think tank IMCO compiled the following list of questions to be answered in Mexico in 2026:
USMCA
Will the treaty’s life be extended or will the review process become a yearly process?
Public Finances
Will the government’s fiscal targets be met, or will the fiscal deficit expand?
Investment
Will “Plan Mexico” succeed in increasing both public and private investment?
Employment
Will formal employment creation rebound?
Judicial Power
Will the courts preserve their capacity and guarantee legal certainty?
Electoral Reform
Will the electoral system preserve plurality?
New Institutions
Will new regulators be successful, with the former independent bodies having been replaced?
National Anticorruption System
Will the current system be changed?
Care Economy
Will a National Care System be created?
Education
Will increased spending in scholarships lead to improved outcomes?
The Year Ahead
Prognosticating on politics and policies in Mexico is as difficult as ever in 2026. What is clear is that more projects will be seen as opportunities by domestic and international players if and when trade negotiations with the United States advance. The Mexican market remains highly attractive, no doubt, but for many the goal remains to leverage the country’s exporting platform across North America and into Latin America and beyond.
Companies that develop a strong point of view on the range of challenges and opportunities they face, and could face, and adopt well-structured internal procedures to anticipate and manage disruption will be best positioned to succeed.
Damián Martínez
Managing Director, Public Affairs
Damián Martínez Tagüeña is a Managing Director in FTI Consulting’s Strategic Communications segment, based in Mexico City. Damián advises companies on complex public affairs and regulatory issues, as well as on reputational crises and disputes. Prior to joining FTI Consulting, Damián served in the Mexican diplomatic corps for nearly 20 years, most recently as Chief of Staff of the Deputy Secretary of Foreign Relations.
Jorge Padilla
Managing Director, Corporate Positioning
Jorge Padilla is a Managing Director in the Strategic Communications segment at FTI Consulting, specializing in public affairs, government, and media relations across several industries, including energy, industrials, and infrastructure. He previously served as Deputy Editor-In-Chief of Mexico’s leading newspaper REFORMA, and co-led MURAL Newspaper in Guadalajara.
Isaac Morales
Managing Director, Incident Response, Crisis & Cybersecurity
Jorge Padilla is a Managing Director in the Strategic Communications segment at FTI Consulting, specializing in public affairs, government, and media relations across several industries, including energy, industrials, and infrastructure. He previously served as Deputy Editor-In-Chief of Mexico’s leading newspaper REFORMA, and co-led MURAL Newspaper in Guadalajara.
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About Our Latin America Practice
FTI Consulting advises companies doing business across Latin America to navigate the stakeholder dynamics around special situations and high profile corporate events, from transactions and market entry to crisis, disputes and litigation. We help clients anticipate critical political, policy and reputational risks and effectively overcome them, unlocking long term opportunity. Our Latin America practice works in a coordinated manner through our offices in Mexico City, Bogotá, and São Paulo, as well as with our teams in Washington D.C., Brussels, Madrid, Houston, Miami, and other important hubs. Through our vast network of strategic partners, we have coverage on all Latin American countries.
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The views expressed in this article are those of the author(s) and not necessarily the views of FTI Consulting, its management, its subsidiaries, its affiliates, or its other professionals. ©2026 FTI Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved. www.fticonsulting.com |
