Avian Flu: An Emerging Public Health Crisis – Part 1: Echoes from the Past
Avian influenza, or H5N1, continues to spread in the United States. As of March 2025, avian flu infected over 983 dairy cattle and 1,635 poultry flocks.1 This cross-species infection also sickened 70 Americans – taking the life of one man.2 While not yet declared a public health crisis, avian flu carries significant human risks, especially if variants of the disease begin to mutate during flu season to more easily infect humans.3 This echoes a pattern from over a decade ago in the United States, when swine influenza, or H1N1, spread to pandemic levels among humans due to mutations in 2009.4 This paper explores the valuable insights from the swine flu pandemic that government and industry can leverage to manage avian flu.
In Avian Flu: An Emerging Public Health Crisis, FTI Consulting experts dive into a rapidly evolving crisis within the United States – a new form of highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI). This is Part 1 of a series and explores lessons from the past.
Learn more about FTI Consulting’s Food & Agribusiness solutions.
Public Health Response
The swine flu pandemic emerged in 2009 during a period of intense pandemic preparedness initiatives at all levels of the United States government.5 Notably, these efforts had already been underway because of the perceived threat of avian flu at the time.6 Very soon after a mutated swine flu virus was found in human patients, scientists developed a vaccine that protected against it.7 The federal government quickly funded vaccine rollout to states, where local and state health partners developed plans for distribution, accompanied by education campaigns.8 Despite limited initial vaccine quantities when demand was highest, the ambitious campaign vaccinated about a quarter of the American population within three months of launch.9 These public-private collaborative response tactics, combined with antiviral medications and nonpharmaceutical interventions like school closures and distancing, demonstrated an effective, holistic public health response that quickly controlled the threat.10
Comparatively, the public health response to avian flu has lacked the same degree of coordination. A changing presidential administration and the actions of the Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) to pare down federal agency staff disrupted the public health response to avian flu.11 State officials also claim the federal government withheld reports from and canceled meetings with states, sparking deeper concerns about coordinated management of the disease.12 USDA Secretary Brooke Rollins unveiled a new avian flu plan in February 2025 that includes $1 billion in government investments directly toward the implementation of biosecurity measures, financial relief to poultry farmers, and exploration of vaccines for egg-laying chickens.13
Collaborative public health efforts involving all levels of government, as well as industry, during the swine flu pandemic contributed to the successful management of the disease and remains a critical takeaway for officials handling avian flu.
Economic Impact
Swine flu resulted in significant economic consequences in multiple sectors, with an overall estimated global impact of at least $55 billion.14 Specifically, the pork industry saw major losses as a result of misconceptions surrounding swine flu and its causes. While the virus is not transmissible through properly cooked pork, consumers’ fears that eating pork would result in an infection led to a decrease in pork demand and sales, causing pork prices to drop drastically.15 Trade bans and other restrictions on live pig export also impacted American agricultural markets, contributing to an overall economic decline.16 However, the initial misconceptions and shock that disrupted the markets ended relatively quickly due to rapid education campaigns undertaken by industry and government.17
In contrast, as of November 2024, the cost of avian flu to the United States poultry industry totaled at least $1.4 billion.18 Egg prices skyrocketed in part because of culled poultry flocks, which continues to concern and frustrate egg consumers.19 Of several poultry vaccines developed to curb disease spread, only one has been granted a conditional license by the USDA and none are approved for widespread distribution.20 The threat of trade partners ceasing import of vaccinated American chicken out of fear that exported animals may carry the disease continues to raise concerns from the agricultural community.
While history taught us that swift management of swine flu mitigated economic impacts on United States agriculture, experts suggest that egg prices may remain high for at least a few months to a year due in part to sluggish response from government.21
Partnerships and Effective Communication
The power of private-public partnerships became clear during the swine flu pandemic. For instance, government partnered with tech companies to facilitate social media and digital communication throughout the public health campaigns.22 Agencies leveraged social networking sites, text messaging, and digital platforms to reach broad populations, disseminating important outbreak prevention guidance.
Over a decade later, the heightened potential for private-public partnerships to create solutions appears to have lost momentum rather than gained it. More than a year into managing avian flu, less than half of American parents say they feel they have accurate information about the disease and the majority want the government to take more action.23
Public health officials can leverage private entities for issue response – a method with demonstrated success – to enact targeted, effective information campaigns that proactively manage avian influenza.
Key Takeaways for Avian Flu
Officials should take the lessons from the 2009 swine flu pandemic and apply them swiftly to the management of the avian flu outbreak.
Government collaboration with industry, scalable vaccine production, comprehensive pandemic preparedness plans, and clear, widespread communication are key steps that should be taken to build off the successes of the past and secure a healthier future.
Avian flu will continue to mutate and strengthen, reaffirming the need for strong, resilient mitigation systems immune to political fluctuations.
Authors’ Note: Katie Bestenlehner, a Managing Director in FTI Consulting’s Strategic Communications segment, contributed to this article.
Avian flu has been spreading through poultry, cattle, and other animal populations in the country since last year, while recently infecting humans. With a changing political landscape and imminent need to control this influenza, Part 1 of this series explores lessons from the past. The next installment of this series will take a deeper dive into the impact of avian flu on consumers.
Please contact our U.S. Healthcare & Life Sciences team for further discussion.
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References
[1] United States Department of Agriculture, “HPAI Confirmed Cases in Livestock,” Animal and Plant Inspection Service (January 16, 2025), https://www.aphis.usda.gov/livestock-poultry-disease/avian/avian-influenza/hpai-detections/hpai-confirmed-cases-livestock
[2] “CDC Confirms First Severe Case of H5N1 Bird Flu in the United States,” Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (December 18, 2025), https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2024/m1218-h5n1-flu.html
[3] “Bird Flu Is Raising Red Flags Among Health Officials,” Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health (January 14, 2025), https://publichealth.jhu.edu/2025/bird-flu-is-raising-red-flags-among-health-officials
[4] “H1N1 influenza (Swine flu),” University of Florida Health, https://ufhealth.org/conditions-and-treatments/h1n1-influenza-swine-flu#:~:text=Causes,is%20ill%20with%20the%20flu
[5] “The 2009 H1N1 Pandemic: Summary Highlights, April 2009-April 2010,” Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (June 16, 2010), https://archive.cdc.gov/www_cdc_gov/h1n1flu/cdcresponse.htm
[6] Id.
[7] Bruce M. Altevogt, Lori Nadig, Clare Stroud, “The 2009 H1N1 Influenza Vaccination Campaign: Summary of a Workshop Series,” National Academies Press (2010), https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/books/NBK54189/
[8] “The 2009 H1N1 Pandemic: Summary Highlights, April 2009-April 2010,” Centers for Disease Control & Prevention (June 16, 2010), https://archive.cdc.gov/www_cdc_gov/h1n1flu/cdcresponse.htm
[9] Id.
[10] Id.
[11] Leah Douglas and Tom Polansek, “US bird flu response disrupted in early weeks of Trump administration, sources say,” Reuters (February 14, 2025), https://www.reuters.com/world/us/us-bird-flu-response-disrupted-early-weeks-trump-administration-sources-say-2025-02-14/
[12] Evie Liu, “Why Trump’s Plan to Combat Bird Flu Won’t Bring Egg Prices Down Immediately,” Barrons (March 9, 2025), https://www.barrons.com/articles/egg-prices-bird-flu-trump-38109aa1
[13] Brooke L. Rollins, “Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins: My Plan to Lower Egg Prices,” Wall Street Journal Opinion (February 26, 2025), https://www.wsj.com/opinion/agriculture-secretary-brooke-rollins-my-plan-to-lower-egg-prices-6be0f881?msockid=02955441ea166f8a3cc141d8eba16e94
[14] Derren Joseph, “Potential Economic Impact of the Pandemic – Lessons from 2009 H1N1 / Swine Flu Pandemic,” HTJ Tax (April 5, 2020), https://htj.tax/2020/04/potential-economic-impact-of-pandemic_5/#:~:text=On%20the%20low%20end%2C%20the,per%20cent%20off%20global%20GDP
[15] “Potential Farm Sector Effects of 2009 H1N1 ‘Swine Flu’: Questions and Answers,” Congressional Research Service Reports (January 12, 2010), https://crsreports.congress.gov/product/pdf/R/R40575/11#:~:text=Reports%20of%20the%20outbreak%E2%80%94coupled,pork%20might%20result%20in%20infection
[16] Id.
[17] Warwick J. McKibbin, “The Swine Flu Outbreak and its Global Economic Impact,” Brookings Institute (May 4, 2009), https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-swine-flu-outbreak-and-its-global-economic-impact/
[18] Animal and Plant Inspection Service, “Payment of Indemnity and Compensation for Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza,” Federal Register (December 31, 2024), https://www.federalregister.gov/documents/2024/12/31/2024-31384/payment-of-indemnity-and-compensation-for-highly-pathogenic-avian-influenza
[19] Kati Weis, “In bird flu fight, Agriculture Department almost doubling the $1.1 billion already spent,” CBS News (March 10, 2025), https://www.cbsnews.com/news/bird-flu-usda-funding-egg-prices/
[20] Madeline Barron, “Avian Influenza (H5N1) Vaccines: What’s the Status?,” American Society for Microbiology (March 4, 2025), https://asm.org/Articles/2025/March/Avian-Influenza-H5N1-Vaccines-What-Status
[21] Evie Liu, “Why Trump’s Plan to Combat Bird Flu Won’t Bring Egg Prices Down Immediately,” Barrons (March 9, 2025), https://www.barrons.com/articles/egg-prices-bird-flu-trump-38109aa1
[22] Timothy Tinker and Marko Bourne, “Reducing the H1N1 Risk: Public-Private Social Media Partnerships,” Domestic Preparedness (October 27, 2010), https://domesticpreparedness.com/articles/reducing-the-h1n1-risk-public-private-social-media-partnerships
[23] Mary Von Beusekom, “Many US parents feel uninformed about avian flu risks, survey finds,” CIDRAP (March 10, 2025), https://www.cidrap.umn.edu/avian-influenza-bird-flu/many-us-parents-feel-uninformed-about-avian-flu-risks-survey-finds
