2025 in Review and a Look Ahead

2025 will undoubtedly be seen as a tale of two halves, the first half defined by the early months of the Trump White House and the uncertainties associated with the new paradigm in international trade.

The FT describes the second half as one that saw the return of M&A “animal spirits” and no question, there have been big strategic moves in multiple sectors that need no rehearsal here that have carried through into early 2026.

Stabilisation and improvement of the interest rate outlook, the availability of credit and a need to monetise portfolios has driven a more positive outlook for deals in the Private Equity space and the convergence of buyside/sellside valuation expectations have provided some additional momentum.  But the retention of minority stakes by some traditionally “majority only” private sponsors is telling.  And strong IPO pipeline in Europe for 2026 brings the hope of additional liquidity for redeployment.  The UK IPO pipeline seems to be improving and recent conversations point to H2 2025 and H1 2026, the much anticipated London IPO of Visma being seen as a critical catalyst.

Political risk has always been a important feature of M&A considerations but the continued rise of economic nationalism (and that’s a global phenomenon) has now brought this front and centre for our transacting clients.  No deal is too large or too small to avoid this consideration and in the newer market segments, the understanding of immediate public policy risk has now been augmented with “tail-risk” associated with future changes in governments and competition policy. 

Looking East, and having recently returned from Asia, a few observations. The change in sentiment in Hong Kong has been dramatic: the IPO market is flourishing, ECM bankers and lawyers are working around the clock.  It’s a positive outlook and feels like the Hong Kong of old – a hive of activity. And as the improving diversity and liquidity of the Hong Kong market continues, M&A must follow.

Singapore remains the entry point to Malaysia and Indonesia as well as remaining home to very significant mega-family offices with regional M&A on their minds.  It’s easy to forget that 60% of the word’s population lives east of the GCC and after Africa, it’s likely to be the largest contributor to global population growth adding another 750m people by 2050 according to some estimates – the equivalent to 1.5 EU’s or twice the current US population with the overlay of an ever-growing middle class with increasing disposable incomes. With those kinds of population dynamics, it’s unsurprising that intra-Asia deal volumes are up dramatically with additional catalysts including regional trade deals, supply chain diversification and the availability of capital both within corporates and pent-up regional private capital allocations.

The under-current of international activism campaigns is a continuing feature of the markets in Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, focusing boards on capital allocation and value generation.  Most particularly in Japan, the decade long realignment of the corporate governance regime has continued to create fertile ground for activist campaigns.  A recent piece by the Financial Times on the Japanese activism environment is worth a read:  https://www.ft.com/content/a269c489-2e1c-4363-9fe8-03f42a77b53e

FTI Strategic Communications continues to commit capability and investment in this important market to create activism defence preparation and execution.  2025 has been a banner year in terms of collaboration with our clients and advisors in this practice area the highlights being a large energy sector defence mandate in the US and our European team topping the Activism advisory league tables.  We’ll be building our capabilities and relationships further in 2026.