Retail & Consumer Products

The Goods (U.S. Edition) – To Z or Not To Z

Welcome back to The Goods! This week we’re discussing pet parent spending, Gen Z prioritizing handbags over dining out, and AI-generated holiday ads. 

What’s the latest you’ve ever returned a library book? One woman returned an old copy of Bunches and Bunches of Bunnies to her former local library in Maine… 46 years late. Diana Edwards checked out the book from the Camden Public Library for her kids with a due date of August 10, 1979. While the library no longer has late fees (and previously capped them at $5), Edwards has donated an undisclosed sum to the library as a token of her gratitude for the extended check-out time.

What’s In: This Week’s Trends

Cash or Card: Consumer Behavior

What’s going on with the consumer these days? This week we talk New York’s wealthy fueling the city’s party scene, the price shoppers could pay from tariffs this holiday season, and younger generations prioritizing their spending.

Making Moves: Industry Transformations & Innovation

ICYMI, even industry icons need to reinvigorate their brand presence through unique and creative ways. Here are some new brand moves that you should know about: 

  • A Whole New World: With Whole Foods’ CEO now leading all of Amazon’s grocery operations, the line between “natural” and “nationwide” is blurring fast. In Philadelphia, Amazon is testing “ShopBots” – robots that fetch brand-name staples like Tide Pods and Doritos for Whole Foods shoppers who want more than quinoa and kombucha. Meanwhile, in Chicago, the company replaced the flagship store’s café with an “Amazon Grocery” stocked with Kraft Mac & Cheese and Chips Ahoy. The experiments mark the latest step in the “Amazonification” of Whole Foods, part of a broader shake-up eight years after Amazon’s $13.7 billion acquisition of the grocery chain.
  • Doing a Double Fake: Despite facing backlash last year for its AI-generated holiday ads, Coca-Cola is toying with the technology again. The brand is releasing two new-and-improved “Holidays Are Coming” commercials developed by artificial-intelligence studios. Chief Marketing Officer Manolo Arroyo said the campaign was faster and cheaper to produce than a traditional shoot, taking just a month and a smaller team instead of the typical yearlong process. While 46% of consumers still disapprove of AI in ads, Coke’s 2024 campaign ultimately tested well with the average viewer, suggesting most either didn’t know or didn’t mind. The Interactive Advertising Bureau estimates that 39% of TV commercials, social videos, and online videos will be built or enhanced using AI by 2026.

Capital Markets Corner

What consumer news is moving the market this week? Our investor relations experts break down this week’s trends and headlines.

  • Déjà Vue: Kimberly-Clark, the parent company of Kleenex and Huggies, has agreed to acquire Tylenol-maker Kenvue for more than $40 billion. The deal marks a strategic move by Kimberly-Clark to diversify beyond paper products and tap into faster-growing health and wellness categories. Kenvue, spun off from Johnson & Johnson in 2023, has navigated a difficult debut as a standalone company, facing product-safety lawsuits and pressure from multiple activists. While Kenvue’s stock has climbed following the announcement, Kimberly-Clark shares have plunged as investors worry about the legal and political risks of the transaction – especially given recent claims linking Tylenol use to autism.
  • An Intimate Gathering: BBRC International, the investment firm led by Australian billionaire Brett Blundy, has amassed a nearly 13% stake in Victoria’s Secret and is now publicly pushing for sweeping leadership changes. This campaign marks BBRC’s first activist effort, a shift at the firm better known for building and scaling retail brands. BBRC is calling for the removal of Board Chair Donna James, citing her as over-tenured, and seeking a Board seat for Blundy himself. Victoria’s Secret, spun off from L Brands (now Bath & Body Works) in 2021, has underperformed since going public, with shares down roughly 15% since the separation. However, momentum has picked up since CEO Hillary Super joined the company 14 months ago, with the stock nearly doubling since July.

Word on the Hill

The Word 🏛️ The government shutdown – now the longest in U.S. history – continues to drag on, with the battle over SNAP benefits now a focal point. Late last week, a federal judge ordered the Trump administration to tap emergency funds to partially fund the program through November. Then, on Tuesday, the president threatened to block funding until Democrats “open up the government,” (the White House later said the administration is “fully complying” with the court order).

What it means: At least some SNAP funding should move, whether through contingency plans in some states or emergency funds released by the USDA. The question is when. A USDA official said in a court filing that it could take “anywhere from a few weeks to several months” for states to adjust their systems to account for the reduced benefit amounts.

According to the USDA, 267,000 retailers are authorized to accept the $8 billion in SNAP benefits distributed nationwide each month. Small and independent grocers often generate a significant percentage of their revenue from SNAP transactions, and small grocers from the Rockies to the Bronx are warning that this month’s revenue hit could be disastrous for their businesses.

Meanwhile, on the street: Retailers across the country are stepping up to help fill customers’ grocery gaps. For example, Iowa-based Hy-Vee announced on Oct. 31 that its stores with hot-food service will provide free meals to children 12 and under, and that other shoppers can purchase that same meal for $3.

Retailers that accept SNAP payments must be careful not to run afoul of regulations. A USDA email sent to retailers over the weekend reminded of the program’s equal treatment requirement, which says they “cannot treat SNAP-EBT customers differently than any other customer.” The memo emphasized that “providing discounts or services only to SNAP-paying customers is a SNAP violation.”

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