The Goods (U.S. Edition) – Pasta la Vista
Welcome back to The Goods! This week we’re discussing the American-Italian pasta wars, Edible Arrangements selling THC gummies, and the legislative power of MAHA social media influencers.
Your dentist wants you to brush, floss, and go to Erewhon. The luxury grocery chain known for its pricey goods has released a new smoothie inspired by an unexpected flavor: toothpaste. Priced at $11 – a deal compared to Hailey Bieber’s $20 Strawberry Glaze Skin Smoothie – the Mint Condition Smile Smoothie features mint, green tea, citrus, coconut milk, and mango.
What’s In: This Week’s Trends
- Just Along for the Guide: Despite trade tensions and concerns about the consumer, company executives are surprisingly upbeat about the economy this earnings season. Mentions of “economic slowdown” and similar terms being used during guidance and earnings calls this past quarter reached the lowest seen since 2007. News coverage is following suit, with mentions of an economic slowdown in articles also dropping over the past few months. Experts point out that despite these trends, earnings commentary is still mixed, with the best tone coming from tech and healthcare companies.
- Pasta la Vista: Italian pasta could soon vanish from U.S. grocery shelves as major exporters face duties totaling 107%. The Commerce Department announced a 92% antidumping duty on 13 Italian pasta makers after a carb-loaded probe into industry pricing practices – this is on top of the Trump administration’s 15% tariff on imports from the EU. The decision has triggered a clash between Washington and Rome, with Italy fighting to protect the $770 million in pasta exports sent to the U.S. annually. Although the Commerce Department’s decision isn’t final, it’s hard to say whether pasta makers would be willing to forgive and spaghett.
- Tip It and Reverse It: The recent “no tax on tips” law is shaking up how U.S. restaurants handle service charges, particularly mandatory gratuities of 15% to 20% for larger parties – which are not eligible for the deduction under the new law. Employing 15.7 million people, the restaurant industry is now under pressure to ensure tips are properly recorded through payroll so employees can claim up to $25,000 in tax-free tips annually. Some restaurants are already working to drop mandatory gratuities so employees can benefit from the deduction, while others are holding out for final guidance from the IRS.
Cash or Card: Consumer Behavior
What’s going on with the consumer these days? This week we talk Gen Z’s adoration for aromas, consumer sentiment hitting its lowest point in over three years, and the rising popularity (and potential downfall) of hemp-derived THC products.
- Money Well Scent: Gen Z is fueling a global fragrance boom, turning to perfumes as a way to express their style, elevate moods, and enjoy a taste of prestige without buying big-ticket luxury items. According to Circana, nearly 38% of fragrance spending in 2025 through the end of July came from households with at least one Gen Z member, and global fragrance sales over the past year have exceeded makeup and skincare sales. Big brands are smelling the growth possibilities – L’Oréal struck a deal to acquire Kering’s cosmetic and fragrance brands, while Estee Lauder is launching TikTok campaigns targeting Gen Z consumers based on AI translations of how consumers discuss scents.
- Woe and Tell: Amid the prolonged government shutdown, U.S. consumer sentiment fell to its lowest point in over three years. The University of Michigan index dropped to a reading of 50.3 in November – down 6.2% from last month and about 30% from this time last year. There is one group who expressed some optimism: Americans with the largest stock holdings saw sentiment rise 11% thanks to market gains. However, record-high stock prices weren’t enough to lift the overall mood for federal workers, households relying on food assistance, and middle-income Americans facing tighter budgets.
- Is The Grass Always Greener? Daily cannabis use surpassed daily drinking rates in 2022, and the U.S. market for intoxicating hemp beverages is projected to top $1 billion this year – up from $239 million in 2023. One company riding this high is the parent company of Edible Arrangements, which launched Edibles.com, a marketplace for low-dose THC drinks and edible products that support anything from sleep to social anxiety. Mainstream retailers like Target, Circle K, and DoorDash have even begun offering THC beverages. However, a last-minute provision added to the spending bill essentially recriminalized hemp-derived THC products, closing a loophole created by the 2018 Farm Bill and threatening the industry.
Making Moves: Industry Transformations & Innovation
ICYMI, even industry icons need to reinvigorate their brand presence through unique and creative ways. Here are some new brand moves that you should know about:
- A Bearish Market: Last week, Starbucks launched its collectible holiday cup lineup and created an online resale juggernaut. The $29.95 “Glass Bearista Cold Cup” quickly sold out across locations and is now reselling for hundreds of dollars (and listed with “Buy It Now” prices of up to $50,000) online. Despite shipping out more Bearistas than nearly any other seasonal item, most stores received only one or two units, sparking long lines, immediate sellouts, and frustrated customers. One 70-year-old fan who has spent “several thousand” on the chain’s collectible merch over the past 25 years camped outside his local Starbucks at 3 a.m. – only to find out that the barista purchased the last bear-shaped cup.
- Smile Your Aisle Off: If you notice more grins at your local Target store, it’s not just your imagination… it’s a new mandate. The retailer has launched a new “10-4” program, directing employees to smile at customers who are within 10 feet of them, and offer help or ask how they’re doing if they are within 4 feet. Led by CEO Michael Fiddelke, the initiative aims to make stores more welcoming and improve the overall shopping experience ahead of the holiday season, as Target works to boost key customer satisfaction metrics, improve in-stock levels, and regain momentum after a stretch of soft sales.
- As Shein in Paris: Shein opened its first physical store inside Paris department store BHV Marais last week, drawing over 50,000 visitors in its first days as well as intense backlash. Critics blasted the partnership as a threat to France’s fashion heritage, condemning the company’s environmental values and labor practices. Shein’s arrival prompted independent brands to pull out of BHV, and notable figures such as the city’s deputy mayor publicly opposed the partnership. BHV is doubling down on its strategy, defending the move as a way to attract younger shoppers and highlighting a growing tension between France’s luxury craft identity and the irresistible pull of ultra-cheap fast fashion.
Capital Markets Corner
What consumer news is moving the market this week? Our investor relations experts break down this week’s trends and headlines.
- In Knead of Change: As budget-conscious consumers cut back on dining out, pizza chains are getting burned. Yum Brands has launched a strategic review of Pizza Hut, which has posted several quarters of falling sales and struggled to keep pace with other brands under the Yum umbrella such as Taco Bell. Meanwhile, Papa John’s stock jumped 15% on now-deleted rumors that TriAsrtisan Capital Advisors was exploring a takeover. The news came just a week after Apollo Global Management withdrew its $64 per share bid for the chain, citing the same consumer weakness weighing on Yum Brands. Regardless of market rumblings, it is likely the pizza wars will continue as chains fight for a piece of the pie.
Word on the Hill
The Word 🏛️ Last week, U.S. Sen. Roger Marshall (R-KS) – who considers himself an ally of Health Secretary RFK, Jr. and the Make America Healthy Again movement – introduced the Better Food Disclosure Act, a bill to strengthen FDA oversight of food ingredient reporting and safety reviews. But he quickly discovered he’d picked up a MAHA hot potato.
The initial draft legislation included federal preemption language that would have allowed the U.S. Food & Drug Administration to supersede state laws and regulations on food additives. This provision was backed by Americans for Ingredient Transparency, an industry coalition that has positioned itself as a solutions-oriented partner.
Marshall faced fierce pushback. At least 120 state legislators sent a letter urging him to strike the preemption language. Leading MAHA influencer Vani Hari, better known as The Food Babe, voiced her opposition to her 2.3 million Instagram followers. And MAHA moms mobilized to give the senator “an earful.”
“I couldn’t believe how much pushback I got,” Marshall said. Under pressure, he deleted the preemption language from the bill.
What It Means: This episode reveals MAHA’s ability to take on powerful Washington interests and outmaneuver well-funded industry groups to kill legislation in its earliest stages. The preemption language would have eliminated MAHA’s most effective pressure point: state actions that force nationwide change from food and beverage companies. When states ban food additives, companies often opt to widely reformulate their products rather than manage compliance across different markets. The speed advantage matters, too. Federal regulatory processes can be slow and deliberative, while states can move quickly and without rigorous scientific reviews. That agility, combined with organized online advocacy led by influencers like Hari, creates a potent force for change.
Meanwhile, on the Street… Does The Food Babe have a counterweight? Enter Michelle Miller, a.k.a. The Farm Babe, who travels the country to push back on what she sees as MAHA misinformation in partnership with major food and ag companies. But with just 43,000 Instagram followers — compared to The Food Babe’s 2.3 million — Miller faces an uphill battle. In a world where follower count can trump a big lobbying budget, this industry ally is out-followed 50-to-1.
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