The Goods (U.S. Edition) – Naughty or Price?
Welcome back to The Goods! This week we’re discussing consumers engaging in petty retail crimes to feel better, fiber’s moment to shine, and all-inclusive adventure resorts trading all-you-can-drink spills for all-you-can-do thrills.
Washington, D.C. took holiday romance to record-breaking levels when 1,435 couples convened to simultaneously kiss under a giant mistletoe, officially setting a new Guinness World Record™. Turns out all it takes to unite a city is festive décor, public accountability, and very public displays of affection.
Heads up: this is the last edition of The Goods this year as our editorial team will take a well-deserved break for the next two weeks. We wish everyone a happy holiday season and New Year!
What’s In: This Week’s Trends
- Three’s Company: As agentic platforms like ChatGPT and Perplexity play a bigger role in how consumers discover and buy products, retailers are teaming up to ensure AI shopping assistants do not cut them out of the customer relationship. A new coalition backed by brands like Amazon, Apple, Adidas, and Tesla is pushing for the creation of a shared “Shopper Context Protocol” that would enable customers to choose where and how their data is shared when they shop through third-party AI tools. The launch of this Retail AI Council comes as nearly one-third of consumers say they are willing to let an AI agent make purchases on their behalf, according to a Contentsquare survey.
- Naughty or Price? Digital and algorithmic pricing is challenging the notion of having a fixed price for the same product, particularly in online grocery shopping. A recent study of randomized shoppers conducted by Groundwork Collaborative and Consumer Reports found price differences on nearly 75% of identical grocery items sold on Instacart. The cost of baskets varied about 7% within the same store – a difference that could equate to hundreds of dollars annually. Instacart frames these “short term, randomized” pricing tests as helpful to retail partners in understanding consumer preferences, but the practice has quickly raised consumer trust concerns and drawn regulatory attention.
- Fraud of Approval: Consumers are increasingly engaging in small, everyday rule-breaking – ringing up organic produce as regular, returning worn items, or sneaking snacks into movie theaters – and feeling little guilt about it. As only about 30% of customers trust big U.S. businesses, many shoppers have rationalized things like petty theft, return abuse, and “friendly” credit card chargebacks… particularly when the target is a large corporation. Some see these as small acts of vengeance against large corporations, leading to what researchers are calling a “Robin Hood mentality” among middle-class, middle-aged consumers.
Cash or Card: Consumer Behavior
What’s going on with the consumer these days? This week we talk about Gen-Z’s trading card obsession, consumers looking to get their fiber fix, and why younger generations feel awkward talking about alcohol.
- Changing of the Card: Trading cards have captured Gen Z’s attention, with collectible card games like Pokémon and Yu-Gi-Oh! becoming the most-purchased secondhand items among Gen Z shoppers on eBay this year. Young men in particular are shifting away from spending on electronics and instead gravitating toward cards and other collectibles. Part of this trend is attributable to people who grew up on Pokémon who are now passing the interest on to their own kids, while other customers are turning to trading cards as an alternative to investing in the stock market. Trading cards are only one part of the growing secondhand sales market. According to an eBay survey, 82% of consumers plan to spend more on secondhand items this holiday season compared to last year.
- Go With Your Gut: After years of chasing protein, fiber is stepping into the spotlight as Americans focus more on gut health and digestive wellness. The trend of “fibermaxxing”– boosting fiber intake through whole foods – has gone viral on social media, with 60% of Gen Z saying they’re interested in high-fiber foods and drinks, according to research firm Datassential. Awareness continues to rise as the majority of Americans aren’t hitting daily fiber targets, and 22% of shoppers rank fiber among their top three purchase considerations, up from 17% in 2021.
- Drinking Out Loud Here… Younger consumers say they feel more awkward than older consumers when explaining why they aren’t drinking, according to research from beermaker Heineken. While 72% of Americans ”feel comfortable declining an alcoholic drink with a simple ‘no thanks,’… only about half of Americans under 35 are comfortable drinking low or no-alcohol drinks in public” and many feel like they need an excuse if they’re not drinking. As mocktails are taking up more prime real estate on menus, consumers are also “Zebra Striping” – alternating between alcohol and non-alcoholic drinks.
Making Moves: Industry Transformations & Innovation
ICYMI, even industry icons need to reinvigorate their brand presence through unique and creative ways. Here are some new brand moves that you should know about:
- The ⭐ Tars ⭐ Aligned: Target is rebooting its SoHo big-box store in New York City as a fashion-forward playground, reopening after four months of renovations with rotating merchandise, influencer- and celebrity-curated displays, and immersive touches designed to put style back at the center of the brand. Highlights include a dramatic red hallway inspired by the Bullseye logo, a selfie-ready Broadway Beauty Bar, and “The Drop” – a rotating shop-within-a-shop that refreshes every four to six weeks. The one-of-a-kind store concept is “a punctuation point” for Target’s sense of style and its plans for the future.
- On the Rocks, Literally: Fueled by a post-pandemic surge in travelers craving nature and adrenaline, all-inclusive adventure resorts are positioning immersive experiences as the new luxury, replacing all-you-can-drink wristbands with all-you-can-try thrills. Clayoquot Wilderness Lodge and other wilderness resorts are taking a hassle-free approach to adventure by bundling activities like canyoneering, mountain biking, hiking, fly fishing, and rafting into one (hefty) upfront price. With no à-la-carte decisions or fear of “wasting” money, guests are free to try everything – a luxury that ranch owners hope will let adults feel like kids again.
Capital Markets Corner
What consumer news is moving the market this week? Our investor relations experts break down this week’s trends and headlines.
- Boss of Sauce: Kraft Heinz has named former Kellanova CEO Steve Cahillane as its new chief executive, effective January 1, tasking him to steer the company through a major transition. In September, Kraft Heinz announced plans to split its condiments and grocery staples portfolios. Cahillane, who recently oversaw Kellanova’s $36 billion sale to Mars, will flex his consumer goods experience to lead the faster-growing condiments company, while the Board will launch a separate search to identify a CEO for its grocery staples business. Cahillane replaces current CEO Carlos Abrams-Rivera, who will serve as an adviser through March. The transition also comes amid notable investor disapproval of the breakup strategy, particularly from Warren Buffet, who warns the spinoff is a band-aid solution to structural issues facing the packaged foods giant.
Word on the Hill
The Word 🏛️ Executives from Target, American Eagle, and the American Trucking Association testified before Congress Wednesday about the nationwide surge in organized retail crime. The hearing comes as the Combating Organized Retail Crime Act continues to add new cosponsors from both parties. Testimony before the House Judiciary Subcommittee on Crime & Federal Government Surveillance emphasized that theft – from smash-and-grabs to highly sophisticated heists – causes harm beyond the cost of stolen goods; it takes a toll on employee safety, customer experience, and business continuity.
What It Means: According to the National Retail Federation, retail theft increased 19% from 2023 to 2024, on top of a 26% increase from 2022 to 2023. This trend has gone unchecked largely due to a lack of coordination between law enforcement agencies, allowing repeat offenders to commit minor crimes across jurisdictions that never add up to serious charges. The legislation before Congress would establish an Organized Retail and Supply Chain Crime Coordination Center to streamline information-sharing across state, federal, and local law enforcement.
Meanwhile, on the Street… A repeat offender was nabbed at a “Shop With a Cop” charity event last week at a Wisconsin Walmart, just days after she committed felony-level shoplifting at the same store. The officers recognized her and paused their shopping to place her under arrest. As the Hartford Police Department noted on Facebook: “If you’re planning felony retail theft… maybe avoid the day when the building is basically 30% law enforcement and 70% wrapping paper.”
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