The Goods (U.S. Edition) – Can I Pull You for an Ad?
Welcome back to The Goods! This week we’re talking about hot new advertisers entering the Love Island villa, the growing miniature economy and one makeup brand’s push to serve the “forgotten generation.”
Welcome to New York, where even the trash is collectible. Taylor Swift fans snapped up cubes filled with trash around Madison Square Garden following her “royal wedding.” The limited-edition collection of garbage, coined the “Not Invited Edition” by artist Justin Gignac, sold out in just over 24 hours.
What’s In: This Week’s Trends
- Available for Higher: Marijuana use is becoming increasingly popular among Americans in the workforce, showing up in 4.4% of urine tests – up from 3.8% in 2021 – and 15% of hair tests, according to data from Quest Diagnostics. At the same time, fewer employers are treating cannabis use as a hiring dealbreaker, treating off-the-clock use more like alcohol, and about half no longer screen for it during the pre-hiring process. As legalizations and labor markets remain competitive, many companies are shifting their focus toward on-the-job impairment instead.
- Cup Runneth Under: Despite major sponsorships and visitors from around the world, the World Cup has yet to provide the broader economic boost that brands and investors were counting on. S. alcohol sales fell 3.1% in the four weeks through June 27, while non-alcoholic beverage sales slightly increased be 2.2%. The numbers don’t tell the whole story though, as analysts believe alcohol consumption shifted on-premise to bars and restaurants rather than home watch parties. Travel also saw an unexpected slump, as TSA traffic is running 2.2% below last year, with Southwest Airlines and Alaska Air taking the biggest hit.
- Can I Pull You for an Ad? It’s safe to say that some hot new brands have entered the villa. With 1.31 billion minutes of viewing in just the first week of the season, Love Island USA has become prime real estate for advertisers to connect with fans. NBCUniversal’s ad sales around the franchise jumped 73% this season, with partners like Maybelline, CeraVe, Coffee-Mate and Poppi expanding beyond one-off placements to full-scale campaigns including in-show beauty integrations, limited-edition flavors, creator collabs, themed watch parties and more.
Cash or Card: Consumer Behavior
What’s going on with the consumer these days?
This week we talk about Americans using points to cover essentials, the “mini” product takeover and trade school’s heightened enrollment.
- Breaking Points: Rather than saving credit card points to splurge on discretionary purchases like flights and hotels, Americans are now using their points to cover the basics. According to a survey of more than 1,000 people conducted by USAA Federal Savings Bank, over 35% said they redeem reward points for “everyday expenses” and 79% of respondents have applied points towards their credit card bills at least once in the past six months. As the cost of groceries, gas and other essentials rise, consumers are combining cash-back offers with credit card rewards to stretch their dollars further.
- Itty Bitty Economy: As economic uncertainty weighs on household budgets, consumers are finding joy in the little things – literally. From Trader Joe’s viral tiny tote bags to limited edition mini Lowe’s buckets, retailers have found that smaller purchases are attracting shoppers who remain cautious about bigger-ticket spending but are still looking for moments of joy. Mini products often sell out fast while increasing store traffic and ultimately driving full-sized purchases. Just don’t call it shrinkflation: minification is a market all its own.
- Good Weld Hunting: Rising tuition, an unpredictable white-collar job market and AI creeping into office work are pushing more Gen Z-ers to rethink the four-year college degree. Trade school enrollment has jumped nearly 20% since 2020, with young workers betting on welding torches, electrical wiring and hands-on skills over lecture halls and student debt. While many see the trades as a practical, future-proof choice, Gen Z workers are still running into skepticism from parents, peers and counselors who remain attached to the traditional college path.
Making Moves: Industry Transformations & Innovation
ICYMI, even industry icons need to reinvigorate their brand presence through unique and creative ways. Here are some new brand moves that you should know about:
- Lease Offering: Major retailers are taking residence in urban markets by creating mixed-use developments with affordable housing. From Costco’s first-ever residential project of 800 apartments in Los Angeles, to Target’s Harlem location with 171 affordable housing units, retailers are partnering with developers to gain access to dense, high-traffic neighborhoods while helping cities address housing shortages. The strategy offers retailers new growth opportunities, gives developers marquee anchor tenants and reflects a broader shift toward mixed-use communities that combine shopping, housing and essential services.
- Gen X Marks the Spot: After years of partnering with the hottest celebrities and fresh new faces, CoverGirl is going back to its roots by targeting the women who grew up with the brand. The Coty-owned makeup brand is shifting its focus to Gen X women in their 40s, 50s and low 60s, with a new campaign featuring models ages 45 to 55 and products priced under $10. Sometimes called the “forgotten generation,” many Gen X women feel underserved by the beauty industry. Yet this group accounts for roughly one-third of total spending within the segment and will remain the world’s highest-spending generation until at least 2033.
Capital Markets Corner
What consumer news is moving the market this week? Our investor relations experts break down this week’s trends and headlines.
- Here We IPO Again: Shein has secured approval from China’s securities regulator for a Hong Kong IPO following its earlier listing attempts in New York and London. The fast-fashion giant has been under pressure from shareholders to cut its valuation to about $30 billion, well below its 2022 peak of $100 billion, as regulatory scrutiny of its supply chain and labor practices, tariffs pressures and intensifying competition from Temu have weighed on growth. Executive Chairman Donald Tang, who led Shein’s IPO efforts, is stepping down, leaving founder and CEO Sky Xu to take a more visible role. The move comes as Shein also works to complete its acquisition of sustainability-focused brand Everlane, adding another layer of scrutiny ahead of what will be a closely watched IPO.
- Deals on Wheels: Uber is in advanced talks to acquire Germany-based Delivery Hero for approximately €40 per share, valuing the food-delivery company at more than €12 billion. If completed, the deal would significantly expand Uber’s international delivery footprint and strengthen its ability to compete with rival DoorDash beyond the U.S. The talks also come amid a strategic review at Delivery Hero following pressure from activist Aspex Management, which successfully ousted CEO Niklas Östberg. The potential acquisition follows a wave of industry consolidation – including DoorDash’s acquisition of Deliveroo and Prosus’ purchase of Just Eat Takeaway.com – as global delivery platforms pursue scale, profitability and stronger competitive positioning.
Word On The Hill
The Word California’s sweeping plastic packaging law just got real for brands and retailers. With the August 1 deadline for Initial Source Reduction Plans looming, companies across the consumer goods and packaging industry are scrambling to close compliance gaps that could expose them to penalties of up to $50,000 per day under Senate Bill 54, widely considered the most comprehensive packaging regulation in U.S. history. And while the Circular Action Alliance recently released a program plan for implementation to help producers navigate the road ahead, many brands are discovering that the hardest part of compliance isn’t the regulation itself: it’s the data.
What It Means: SB 54 requires brands to submit a binding legal commitment to reduce plastic packaging against a permanently fixed 2023 baseline, covering both plastic weight and component count simultaneously. That sounds straightforward until you realize that most companies don’t have a clean, centralized record of what they put into the California market in 2023. Packaging data is scattered across supplier portals, spreadsheets and co-manufacturer records with no single source of truth. From there, the compliance complexity compounds: brands must attribute every reduction to one of five California-approved pathways, including post-consumer recycled content, lightweighting, elimination, refill, or reuse, and then model the financial impact of a fee and penalty structure most have never fully mapped. The law is also shaping up as a de facto national standard. No major consumer goods company maintains a California-only product line, which means SB 54 compliance requirements will migrate across entire product portfolios regardless of where they are sold.
Meanwhile, on the Street… Oregon, Colorado, Maryland, Washington, Maine and Minnesota are all developing or implementing their own extended producer responsibility frameworks, meaning the brands treating this as a California problem are accumulating risk everywhere else. Meanwhile, seventeen state attorneys general – led by Nebraska – have filed a legal challenge arguing SB 54 unconstitutionally forces nationwide compliance with California’s environmental standards. The courts will sort that out eventually. In the meantime, August 1 is still coming fast.
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