Mayoral elections 2021
In the most high-profile race of the year, the London Mayoral battle between Labour incumbent Sadiq Khan and Conservative Shaun Bailey, there was a closer than expected contest. The majority of polls had shown Khan in with a shot of securing an outright majority in the first round but, in the end, he led Bailey by a narrow 40%-35% margin in the first round of voting, which extended to a 55-45% victory when second preferences were tallied.
Given the closeness of the result, a degree of soul-searching appears to be underway in Conservative circles as to whether the party machine could have been more supportive of Shaun Bailey, who many in the party had written-off as an also-ran. In reality, the closeness of the result between Khan and Bailey appears to be largely driven by differential turnout; with the Conservative suburbs turning out strongly while pro-Khan turnout in the inner city was lower. Nevertheless, predictions of a Conservative wipeout in London were misplaced.
Outside of the capital, personality politics was very much at play. In the cases of Steve Rotherham in Liverpool, Andy Burnham in Manchester, Andy Street in the West Midlands, and Ben Houchen in Teesside, their results proved the outsized impact that personally popular incumbents running on records distinct from that of their own parties can have.
In Greater Manchester, Andy Burnham increased his vote share to 67% as voters across the city region appeared to endorse his adversarial approach towards the Conservative government in Westminster, particularly on issues such as the perceived unfairness of the support package accompanying the Coronavirus restrictions that had been imposed in the city prior to many other parts of England. Andy Street built on his reputation as the fair-dealing, pragmatic Chief Executive of John Lewis to narrowly miss out on a first round victory in the West Midlands, an area which takes in Birmingham, Coventry and the Black Country. Street’s leaflets barely mentioned his Conservative affiliation.
Arguably the single most impressive result, though, was that of Ben Houchen in Teesside. Elected in 2017 on what was widely considered a fluke, Houchen has amassed a strong record of achievement in office which has had broad political appeal; from the effective nationalisation of the local airport to the creation of thousands of new jobs on former heavy-industrial sites. His 73% vote share represented a 33% increase on his first-round share at the last election.
Elsewhere, there was good news for Labour in the mayoral elections in the south of England with the party gaining the Cambridgeshire & Peterborough and West of England (essentially Bristol and its environs) from the Conservatives. Labour also won the inaugural race for the mayoralty of West Yorkshire with the victor, outgoing MP Tracey Brabin, now set to resign from the House of Commons and force a by-election in Batley and Spen – a race both parties expect to be competitive.
As one seeks to draw psephological conclusions about the election results it will not go unnoticed that Labour’s gains were predominantly drawn from the “affluent south”.
Click here to go back to the FTI Consulting Public Affairs Snapshot – 2021 Mayoral, Scottish, Welsh and Local Elections Analysis.
