IR Monitor – 11 March 2026

In this week’s newsletter:

• SpaceX: the final frontier of IPOs. With revenue guidance of up to 50% growth in 2026, Craig Coben asks: what growth rate will investors be offered in the 2027 projections?
• Can you tell if the executives are lying? Matt Levine writes for Bloomberg on “evidence that managerial tone predicts returns when text does not”
• Activist threat pushes Japanese companies to unwind cross-shareholdings: Reuters
• Bernard Arnault can continue as CEO until he’s 85: Fortune Magazine on a shareholder change to company bylaws at LVMH
• This quarter’s earnings calls are brought to you with the letter ‘K’: the New York Times on the new earnings buzz phrase
• And finally … The Wealth of Nations is 250 years old and available as a graphic novel 

This week’s news

SpaceX: the final frontier of IPOs

Craig Coben examines the intricacies of the upcoming SpaceX IPO, which could defy expectations if it lists at a reported $1.75tn valuation. With 2025 revenue of $16bn and EBITDA of $8bn, and projected $22bn–$24bn revenue in 2026, investors will likely scrutinise 2027 projections for even faster growth. Justifying a $1.75tn market cap requires near-miraculous expansion, particularly after the Musk-controlled xAI acquisition reportedly lifted SpaceX’s private valuation to $1tn. The rapid rise in valuation creates an interesting unifying factor for the company’s varied shareholder mix of venture funds, sovereign wealth funds and employees, each with differing mandates and exit horizons, as they have humongous paper gains that incentivise quick exits, creating a massive overhang when lockups expire. That might be exacerbated by index inclusion mechanics, which would trigger mandatory passive buying; if rumours of SpaceX fast-tracking its inclusion in major indices proves true, bookbuilding would almost certainly be influenced by investors who want to front-run that demand. As the FT notes, a company of SpaceX’s stature faces complex messaging challenges, and for those managing communications around mega-IPOs, these dynamics may be almost as tricky to convey as the valuation itself. 

Can you tell if executives are lying? 

Recent research examines whether executives’ vocal cues convey predictive information beyond the words they speak. The study, “Voice Beyond Words: Evidence That Managerial Tone Predicts Returns When Text Does Not,” analyses a large dataset of Russell 3000 earnings calls, focusing on situations where textual sentiment is neutral. Bloomberg reports that paralinguistic features, including assertiveness, arousal and nervousness, carry measurable economic signals. Portfolios built using these vocal cues earned an extra 0.4-0.7% return in the 10-30 days after earnings announcements compared with the market. Even when language appears neutral, the acoustic properties of speech can influence market reactions, suggesting AI-enabled models can systematically evaluate tone to extract actionable insights. The findings point to the ways in which delivery, emphasis and underlying vocal patterns can provide an additional layer of information to the market, even if the words themselves appear monotone. 

Activists push Japanese companies to unwind cross-shareholdings

Japanese companies are moving quickly to dismantle cross-shareholdings with business partners and lenders as pressure from activist investors grows, Reuters reports. These mutual holdings have traditionally helped management maintain stable relationships with other firms, but they are increasingly criticised for obscuring company value & limiting shareholder influence. Regulators and the Tokyo Stock Exchange have also encouraged companies to reduce these arrangements as part of wider corporate governance reforms. Some of Japan’s largest firms have begun to respond: for example, Toyota Motor is expected to oversee the sale of about $19bn of its stock currently owned by banks and insurers. Additionally, Nintendo recently announced the $1.9bn sale of shares held by financial institutions including Kyoto Financial Group. Activist campaigns have become more common in Japan, and investors increasingly expect companies to review ownership structures that were once considered standard in Japan. 

Arnault can continue until he’s 85

Reported by Fortune, LVMH shareholders have approved a rule change allowing the chair of the board to remain in the role until age 85, extending the potential tenure of CEO Bernard Arnault by nearly a decade. The amendment, passed at the company’s 2025 annual meeting, follows a previous increase in the leadership age limit from 75 to 80 in 2022. Arnault, who turned 77 this year, has led the luxury group since 1989, overseeing its expansion to 75 brands including Louis Vuitton, Givenchy and TAG Heuer. Despite the extended runway, succession planning remains uncertain. Five of Arnault’s children hold senior roles within the company and four sit on the board, but investors have increasingly called for greater transparency around who will eventually lead the world’s largest luxury group. 

K-shaped: new earnings buzz phrase

According to the NYT, a new phrase is gaining traction on corporate earnings calls: the “K-shaped economy,” describing the widening gap between high-income consumers and the rest of the market. Mentions of the term have surged in recent months according to AlphaSense, appearing on 59 calls in the first two months of 2026 alone whilst appearing on average less than once per month in 2025. The shift reflects a growing divergence in spending patterns. The top 10% of US households now account for nearly half of all consumer spending, according to Moody’s Analytics, supported in part by strong stock market returns. Meanwhile, inflation and wage pressures are squeezing lower and middle-income consumers. Executives from companies including Walmart, PayPal and Mondelez have pointed to the trend in recent calls. While some economists question the scale of the divide, the term is rapidly becoming part of corporate earnings vocabulary. 

And finally… The Wealth of Nations is 250 years old and available as a graphic novel

The Wealth of Nations was published 250 years ago yet Adam Smith remains relevant to this day whether on free trade, the invisible hand or the division of labour. Those working in IR should remember that Smith was sceptical of listed companies given the separation of institutional ownership and corporate management. On the institutional side, he believed that owners should be more closely involved with their capital to ensure it is used productively. On the corporate side, he worried that directors not managing their own money would lead to “negligence and profusion”. For those who found Wealth of Nations too long/didn’t read the original at university, we can recommend the wonderful graphic novel developed by the Adam Smith Institute.