Global Public Affairs Newswire – 5 April 2024
Welcome to the latest edition of the FTI Consulting Global Public Affairs Newswire. In this installment, our global public affairs leaders offer insightful analyses of the current election landscapes within the US, UK, and EU. We also provide our regular market update, covering crucial political developments in a broad range of regions. Our thought leadership includes a spotlight on a new episode of our Electoral Pulse podcast, where our team sits down with experts in Colombia. Additionally, we delve into how the UN is continuing to focus on regulating plastics, ahead of the meeting for environmental decision-makers in Ottawa next month.
2024 Elections: What to watch for in the United States, UK and Europe
This year, more than half of the world’s population will vote in elections. In addition to the high-profile presidential, congressional, state, and local elections being held in the United States this year, voters will also head to the polls in the UK and European Union. FTI Consulting global public affairs leaders, including Jackson Dunn, Alex Deane, Hans Hack, Caroline Muecke-Kemp, and Carlos Ochoa-Alonso, provide an overview of the electoral landscape and what organizations need to look out for.
Jackson Dunn
The United States
Alex Deane
The United Kingdom
Hans Hack
The European Union
Caroline Muecke-Kemp
Germany
Carlos Ochoa-Alonso
Spain
Our team is closely following the ‘Year of the Election’ and taking a deep dive into the upcoming implications, considerations, and opportunities for the business world. |
Efforts to secure further funding for President Biden’s re-election campaign ramped up last week, with former Presidents Barack Obama and Bill Clinton attending a televised fundraiser alongside Biden in New York. The event brought in more than $26 million for his campaign. Former President Trump’s campaign and the Republican National Committee raised $65.6 million in March, ending the month with $93.1 million in cash on hand. While Biden’s campaign is yet to announce its March fundraising results and has held a significant cash advantage over Trump’s to date (raising more than double Trump’s reserves at the end of February), the GOP campaign hopes this news will ease current funding concerns. President Trump retains an advantage among low dollar donors, allowing him to return to his donor base again and again to strengthen his political war chest.
Florida’s Supreme Court triggered a six-week abortion ban approved by state legislators last year, making Florida one of the most restrictive states in the U.S. on reproductive rights. Crucially, the court also ruled that an abortion rights amendment will be on the ballot paper in November – a move which some speculate will provide a possible advantage to Biden in a state Trump won twice, given its unpopularity and the likelihood of the amendment decision driving voter turnout. This follows the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization Supreme Court ruling in 2022 which overturned abortion rights access. Democrats are hoping it will energize voter turnout in key swing states on election day.
Independent presidential candidate Robert F. Kennedy Jr. has announced lawyer and philanthropist Nicole Shanahan as his running mate for the presidential race. Shanahan notably funded his expensive Super Bowl ad in February and has signaled support for Kennedy’s anti-vaccine stance. This comes as Kennedy directly attacked President Biden this week, stating that he is a “much worse” threat to democracy than former President Trump, due to his “weaponizing” of federal agencies to “censor political speech”. Kennedy is averaging double digits in several polls. It is expected by some political observers that his campaign has the potential to sway Biden voters more than Trump voters. The Democratic National Committee, recognizing this potential threat, is creating its first ever team to communicate, lead research, and strategize against third-party presidential candidates in an attempt to neutralize Kennedy’s impact on election day.
South Africa is slowly getting into election mode, with the announcement of the election date, 29 May 2024, by President Cyril Ramaphosa. The South African political environment remains dominated by the governing African National Congress (ANC), which has held an outright majority since the first democratic elections in 1994. However, with the upcoming 2024 National and Provincial General elections, analysts predict that the ANC may not attain a majority in the general elections and may be forced to entertain the possibility of a national coalition government, which has so far introduced instabilities in municipal/local governments in major Metros in the country. In the next few months, the focus of South African politics will mainly be on the upcoming elections, with an expectation that the government will put much of its work on hold for the campaign season as officials will be expected to be on the campaign trail.
Most recently, political parties submitted the required signatures in order to appear on the election ballots and party candidate lists – which have possible party representatives for both the national lower and upper Houses and provincial legislatures, to the Independent Electoral Commission (IEC). The governing party, the ANC, has already been under scrutiny for its party list as there was a significant interest in the inclusion of several ANC leaders who have been previously implicated in corruption cases and the Judicial Commission of Inquiry into Allegations of State Capture, Corruption and Fraud in the Public Sector including Organs of State, better known as the State Capture Commission.
Market updates
As U.S. lawmakers head back to Washington next week, they will continue attempts to address high-priority issues and secure legislative victories they can campaign on leading up to November’s elections. While Democrats and Republicans have different views of what those wins might look like, both sides of the aisle are focused on addressing the issue of Ukraine aid this month, albeit in different ways. The Senate passed their version of the aid package in February, a $95 billion bill that includes $60 billion for Ukraine, $14.1 billion in security assistance to Israel, $9.2 billion in humanitarian assistance to Gaza, and $4.8 billion to support Indo-Pacific allies.
Speaker of the House Mike Johnson has committed to some form of action on the matter soon but remains undecided on the best path forward as he navigates the narrow GOP House majority and the dwindling support for the issue among his party. Johnson has floated the idea to provide additional funding through the REPO Act, which would confiscate Russian assets in the United States to fund the necessary aid or structuring the aid package as a loan and reversing the Biden administration’s pause of liquified national gas export approvals in tandem.
As Democrats continue to tout the Senate package as the only path forward, it remains to be seen how U.S. lawmakers will navigate the need for aid with the volatile nature of the 118th Congress. If you have any questions, please reach out to our U.S. Government Affairs team at [email protected]
The EU-US Trade and Technology Council (TTC) taking place in Belgium on 4 and 5 April is set to reveal significant agreements and initiatives on various fronts. While a finalized EU-US Critical Minerals Agreement is unlikely, negotiations persist, indicating ongoing efforts toward cooperation in critical mineral resources. Additionally, a pivotal agreement between the European AI Office and the US AI Safety Institute is poised to introduce a common framework for AI model evaluation, signalling strides in harmonizing AI standards.
Quantum collaboration also takes centre stage, with discussions emphasizing reciprocity in the openness of quantum research programs. This dialogue is anticipated to culminate in the announcement of a cooperation instrument, facilitating joint advancements in quantum technologies. Moreover, attention is directed toward the progression of 6G technology, with a joint vision focusing on security, affordability, and sustainability. The commitment extends to collaborative research and funding initiatives for 6G and Next Generation Internet technologies.
Semiconductor sector discussions revolve around extending joint mechanisms to coordinate support and address supply chain distortions. Plans for industry surveys on legacy chip usage underscore efforts to align strategies and mitigate risks. In terms of trade dynamics, there’s a concerted push towards mutually recognized standards in emerging technologies, fostering a conducive transatlantic marketplace environment.
Sustainability remains a key item, with the continuation of initiatives such as the Transatlantic Initiative on Sustainable Trade (TIST) and exploration of cooperation proposals. Efforts toward e-invoicing interoperability and combating forced labour further reinforce the commitment to ethical trade practices.
The TTC also underscores collaboration in defending human rights online and combating foreign information manipulation, underscoring shared values in digital governance. This comprehensive approach signals a robust foundation for transatlantic collaboration across various technological, trade, and ethical domains, highlighting a proactive stance in addressing global challenges and fostering mutually beneficial partnerships.
Six months after the initial draft was issued for public comments and consultations, the Cyber Administration of China (CAC) promulgated the final version of the rule “Provisions on Promoting and Regulating Cross-Border Data Flows”. Compared to the draft version, the finalized piece considerably eases the restrictions on cross-border data flows by specifying the business scenarios it applies, expanding the scope of exemptions, and reducing the compliance burden to different businesses. Here are some key changes in the final provisions that send positive signals to the business community.
First, the final provisions change its name by placing “promoting” ahead of “regulating” instead of the other way around as in the draft rule. The seemingly minor change highlights the goal regulators would like to achieve with the piece – promoting secure, orderly, and smooth cross-border data flows.
Second, the rule expands the scope of exemption for different types of data. Transfer of non-sensitive personal information of no more than 100 thousand people will be exempted from reporting, and four scenarios (re-entry, business contracts, personnel management, and emergency) are now within the scope of the exemption for sensitive personal information. Critical information infrastructure operators can refer to government guidance for reporting, and more relaxed rules will be applied based on the “negative list” mechanism in designated Free-Trade Zones.
Lastly, the rule simplifies the guidelines and procedures for security assessment and introduces an online reporting system that makes necessary reporting easier than before. The increased transparency and expectedness brought by the provisions are expected to significantly alleviate corporate compliance burdens while safeguarding data privacy and security.
The Competition Commission of India (CCI) has passed an order noting that Google’s Users Choice Billing (UCB) on its Play Store violates the country’s Competition Act. An investigation has been initiated with a report to be filed by 15 May.
The CCI order said Google imposed unfair pricing (with up to 30% commission) on app developers, leaving them with fewer resources – which could force developers out or deter them from entering, denying them market access, and constraining market growth.
This order was passed after a plea from key Indian firms alleging that Google had violated CCI’s earlier order asking it to not restrict app developers from using third-party payment services to pay for apps or for in-app billing.
On 1 March, Google removed several hundred Indian apps from its Play Store for violating billing rules. After the IT ministry intervened, the apps were reinstated ‘temporarily’ on 5 March.
Earlier, in 2022, the CCI had fined Google and directed it to allow third-party payment for Play Store transactions. Google was fined over USD 270M in two CCI rulings October 2022, the other one being on Android.
The current investigation will determine if Google’s billing system stifles competition and harms consumers by limiting payment options. Google has faced similar criticism globally, with developers challenging their app store billing practices. The outcome could have broader implications for Google’s Play Store operations and its approach to in-app purchases.
The UK’s Foreign Secretary, former Prime Minister David Cameron, this week ruled out sending British troops to Ukraine, telling the BBC that “We don’t want to give Putin a target like that”. Cameron said that the UK would use the “architecture of NATO” to deliver support to Ukraine but drew a distinction between a NATO mission “for Ukraine” and a NATO mission “in Ukraine”.
The UK has been one of the leading donors to the Ukrainian war effort and has pledged almost £12 billion in overall support since the Russian invasion in February 2022, of which £7.1 billion has been military assistance. The UK has also hosted a training programme, “Operation Interflex”, which has trained 30,000 Ukrainian military personnel, including fast jet pilots, and hopes to complete the training of another 10,000 by mid-2024.
Cameron acknowledged in the interview, conducted for the BBC’s “Ukrainecast” podcast, that the war “will be lost if the allies don’t step up”, adding that “I think it’s not escalatory to say we’re going to help this independent, sovereign country to fight off an aggressor and we’re going to give it all the help we can in order to do that.”.
The medium to long-term UK and NATO approach to the conflict will ultimately be shaped by the United States and the results of the US Presidential election in November- former President Trump has been critical of NATO in the past and has suggested that a future Trump administration could reduce US support. In the interim, and to get NATO in “the best possible shape by November”, Cameron is set to visit Washington next month, his second stateside visit since he became Foreign Secretary in November 2023.
The Brazilian National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels (ANP) has announced that Brazil’s proven oil reserves increased by 6.98% in 2023, compared to the previous year. This category represents the amount of oil and natural gas that geoscience and engineering analysis classifies as commercially recoverable with reasonable certainty. The surge in reserves was driven by increased production throughout the year, new development projects and the reassessment of the commercial viability of reserves in fields that had already been mapped.
In the first two months of 2024, Brazil’s oil trade balance recorded a surplus of US$ 5.4 billion, which represents an increase of 31% compared to the same period in 2023. The result, which is supported by a surge in oil exports and a reduction in imports of derivatives, emphasizes the country’s expanding participation in the international oil market. According to estimates by the International Energy Agency (IEA), Brazil should account for 4% of the global oil market by 2030. In 2023, average oil production in Brazil hit a record of 3.4 million barrels per day and the IEA points out that production could increase even more, reaching 4.5 million barrels per day by the end of this decade.
The increase in production and investments in fossil fuel exploration has been a point of friction between Lula’s government and environmentalists, who point out contradictions on the part of the government in maintaining investments in this type of source, distancing itself from the energy transition.
Simon Harris is on course to replace Leo Varadkar as Ireland’s Taoiseach (Prime Minister) next week following his confirmation as Leader of Fine Gael on 24 March.
Following Varadkar’s surprise resignation last month, Harris – currently Minister for Further and Higher Education, Research, Innovation and Science – was the only candidate that sought to replace him as leader of the Fine Gael Party. He has the backing of Fine Gael’s coalition partners Fianna Fáil and The Green Party and is expected to win the vote to be appointed Taoiseach when the Houses of Parliament returns from Easter recess on 9 April.
Harris, who will be Ireland’s youngest ever Taoiseach at 37, will also announce a reshuffle of Fine Gael’s Cabinet members next week, filling the vacancy he leaves in Higher Education, as well as another left by long time Fine Gael Minister, Simon Coveney who has announced he will leave Cabinet next week. Junior Minister Josepha Madigan also recently announced her resignation and became the 11th Fine Gael member of parliament to announce they will not run in the next election.
With less than 12 months to go until the next general election, and two months out from the local and European elections, Harris is expected to outline his priorities for both the country and the party at Fine Gael’s Conference this weekend.
Petro’s administration is confronting a new diplomatic crisis after the President opted to sever ties with Argentina and expel the country’s Ambassador in late March. The decision follows a rising tension that became evident during the 2023 Argentinian electoral race, when Petro stated that Milei’s victory would bring “barbarism” to Argentina. The latter then referred to his Colombian counterpart using terms like “terrorist murderer”; thus suggesting how political differences could be escalating to foreign policy level.
Despite both countries’ embassies eventually deciding to engage in dialogue to ‘enhance diplomatic relations’ Colombia’s bilateral communication channels continue to face a complex situation in the broader landscape.
In Latin America, Petro’s refusal to acknowledge the Peruvian President, Dina Boluarte (representative of a key partner within the Andean Community), led to a suspension of diplomatic relations in 2023. The situation has now lasted for nine months. Moreover, confrontations between the Colombian President and Israel following the conflict in the Gaza Strip, as well as tensions on social media with El Salvador’s President Nayib Bukele, among others, have prompted questions about the adequacy of the diplomatic relations’ management. Not to mention that Colombian Foreign Affairs Minister has been suspended by the Procurator’s Office, leaving the vacancy for current US Colombian Ambassador Luis Gilberto Murillo.
The intermittence in Colombia’s diplomatic presence, largely stemming from Petro’s contentious activity on X, highlights two key points: there’s a high unpredictability that could endanger long-standing relationships and even jeopardize trade agreements; and the trend according to which Government itself exercises self-restraint following Petro’s outspoken statements.
The government has recently given the green light to its annual regulatory plan for the year 2024, outlining a roadmap for upcoming legislative actions. A total of 199 regulations are slated for approval, comprising 75% decrees and 25% laws, meaning that 2024 will see more executive and less parliamentary legislative activity. Of particular note is the emphasis on driving forward the country’s recovery, transformation, and resilience agenda, with 37 regulations directly tied to the implementation of the Recovery, Transformation, and Resilience Plan.
Emerging as the most proactive ministry, the Ministry of Ecological Transition and Demographic Challenge spearheads the regulatory action with a total of 29 proposals. Conversely, the Ministry of Defense and the Ministry of Housing and Urban Agenda lag behind with only one initiative each.
In a bid to reignite stalled projects from the previous legislative term, the government is reviving ambitious initiatives such as the Industry Law and the Law on Cinema and Audiovisual Culture. Furthermore, the regulatory plan includes the introduction of the much-anticipated Law for the Protection of Minors in Digital Environments. Remarkably, this law will be jointly proposed by four ministries: the Ministry of the Presidency, the Ministry of Youth and Childhood, the Ministry of Equality, and the Ministry of Digital Transformation.
After months of negotiations between the Federal Government and the opposition, the planned billion-euro program to stimulate the economy and strengthen Germany as a business location is now ready to go into effect. Following the Bundestag, the Bundesrat (second chamber) also approved the coalition’s Growth Opportunities Act by a majority vote. It provides tax relief for companies and cuts bureaucracy. However, during the negotiations, the relief volume of the package was reduced from the original seven billion euros to just over three billion euros. Given the total size of the German economy of more than four trillion euros, the stimulative effect of the law is likely to be limited.
Hence, Finance Minister Christian Lindner (FDP) reacted unsatisfied. Although the law would be “an important signal,” further steps would need to be taken to fundamentally improve the economic situation, he stated. Lindner had originally aimed to ease the burden on companies during the economic recession and to encourage investment in climate protection. The centerpiece of the nearly 50 tax measures he proposed was a state premium for business investment, which the federal states rejected as too expensive.
Negotiations on the Growth Opportunities Act were made particularly difficult by the fact that the opposition CDU/CSU linked the project to the government’s plans to gradually phase out subsidies for agricultural diesel for farmers as part of budget consolidation. Although the two issues were unrelated, the CDU/CSU saw an opportunity to win over protesting farmers.
In late March, the French national statistics agency INSEE confirmed that the budget deficit for 2023 came in at 5.6%, considerably above the government’s initial expectation of 4.9%. Mechanically, such a difference implies significant budget cuts, tax raises, or increased borrowing. The gap is caused by lower-than-expected tax revenue, as inflation fell faster than initially planned. A few weeks ago, in anticipation of these tough numbers, Minister of Economy and Finance Bruno Le Maire had announced budget cuts of around € 10 billion, to be taken mainly from day-to-day operational budgets of the state and from subsidy programmes. Cuts of around € 20 billion are expected for next year. Following INSEE’s publication, the government was adamant to repeat that there would be no new tax rises and has floated the possibility of yet another reform to the unemployment welfare system. In parallel, the government has also ruled out a bill to amend last year’s budget, fearing it could be leveraged by opposition to force a no-confidence vote.
President Macron has long staked his credibility on a responsible management of the economy, and political opposition exploited INSEE’s announcement to attack him, with the left denouncing unfair fiscal reforms and misplaced spending priorities, and the right condemning an inability to responsibly manage the public purse. Indeed, France’s commitment to reduce the deficit to 3% by 2027 now seems in peril, and with it a significant component of Emmanuel Macron’s legacy.
Ahead of EU elections, scrutiny over the use of public money and the magnitude of public spending in general have once again become sensitive politically topics, especially if the controversial reform of unemployment welfare – popular with the right, less with the left – is kept as a government priority.
Expert Analysis |
UN Regulation of Plastics
Two years ago, world governments tasked the United Nations with developing an ambitious treaty to end plastics pollution. Next month, environmental decision makers will meet in Ottawa to discuss the substantive elements of the treaty in detail, including the policy options it may put forth. Other negotiations will follow over the course of 2024. Our team discusses how the potential outcomes and how the industry can take action.
EU Podcast: ColombiaCheck out the fourth episode of ‘The Electoral Pulse’ as our hosts, Anne Sophie Deman and Jeremy Van Gorp, talk with Jorge Del Castillo, Senior Director from FTI Consulting’s office in Bogota, Colombia, about what our colleagues from all over the world are expecting to see as countries across the globe are heading to the polls. |
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- 26 April: General Election, second phase (India)
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- 07 May: General Election, third phase (India)
- 13 May: General Election, fourth phase (India)
- 19 May: General Election (Dominican Republic)
- 20 May: General Election, fifth phase (India)
- 25 May: General Election, sixth phase (India)
- 29 May: General Election (South Africa)
- 01 June: General Election, seventh phase (India)
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