FTI Consulting UK Public Affairs Snapshot: With votes cast, what would a Powell victory mean for Starmer?

With votes cast, members and political pundits alike eagerly await the appointment of the Labour Party’s new deputy leader on Saturday morning. Yet, with polls overwhelmingly predicting a landslide victory for Lucy Powell over Bridget Phillipson, there is little anticipation over the result itself. With it being no secret that Phillipson is No 10’s candidate,  a Powell victory would be cast as a message of discontent with the Prime Minister’s leadership from his own party faithful, and as a push to change direction. But what will the result mean in practice, and what can we expect next?

Early on in this contest, the dividing lines were set. Bridget Phillipson as the “Starmer” candidate and a member of the cabinet pledging party unity. Lucy Powell as the “anti-establishment” figure – despite having spent most of her time in Parliament on Labour’s frontbench and never having voted against the current government. Powell has pledged  to steer the government towards realising a more inherently “Labour” vision, framing the role of deputy leader as a bridge-builder between the various factions of the Labour movement, who can amplify the voices of members and activists.

Regardless of the fact that there is little separating the candidates ideologically, this division is the lens through which the membership has viewed the contest. A Powell victory would therefore signal an unmistakeable message from a membership that feels disengaged and dissatisfied. The leadership is acutely aware of this, and the result will be announced with little fanfare. Members will join virtually as the victor delivers just a brief address – a muted departure from historical announcements.  

A Powell victory would raise a number of questions. Chief among them: would she rejoin the cabinet or stay on the sidelines? Unlike Phillipson, Powell does not currently sit in the cabinet, meaning she is not bound by collective responsibility. This presents an innate risk, and the last thing that the Prime Minister needs is a deputy leader publicly criticising government policy and cabinet decisions.

Powell has also ruled out taking on a government position in a bid to maintain popularity with the membership. And with the recent reshuffle still fresh, the leadership would not want to upend positions too significantly. Yet, they would be keen to find a way to bring her on board and keep her in the tent.

Over the last few weeks, Powell and her team have demonstrated skill at mobilising the membership and running a strong campaign.  The government could deploy her in a campaigning role, leveraging these skills and her new found popularity among members, in the run-up to the 2026 elections, which are expected to be challenging. This could potentially come in the form of party chair, a role currently held by Anna Turley, who attends cabinet as a minister without portfolio.

Secondly, what would this mean politically for the Prime Minister? Powell sits a little to the left of Starmer, and a victory would be further evidence of what the leadership already knows – that the party wants bolder action and a more socialist agenda.

Powell has been outspoken about what she describes as “unforced errors” by the government on welfare and winter fuel payments. She has also made axing the two-child benefits cap central to her campaign, a policy Phillipson has also signalled support for. As such, whatever the result of the election, there will be further pressure on No 10 to lift the cap at the upcoming Autumn Budget. However, fiscal conditions remain incredibly challenging with little headroom, and the government will struggle to allocate the resources needed to implement this change.

It remains to be seen just how vocal Powell would be after the election. Labour would gain nothing from a deputy leader pushing her own policy agenda in public. As a sensible political operator, she would be unlikely to make any comments before the Budget that risk spooking the markets.

As the Prime Minister struggles to unite the party, a seemingly low-stakes election risks undermining the government nonetheless. Whether Powell wins or if the pollsters are wildly off, the leadership faces a huge challenge: energising its base while clawing back support in the country.