FTI Consulting UK Public Affairs Snapshot: Local and Devolved Elections 2026 – Labour on the losing side of change

Thursday’s local and devolved elections delivered a gut punch to Prime Minister Keir Starmer, as Labour suffered heavy electoral losses. While governments are often punished in mid-cycle contests, voters across England, Scotland, and Wales sent a clear message of frustration.

Reform UK emerged as the undisputed winner, making gains across traditionally Labour and Conservative strongholds. But this was far from a two-horse race. The Liberal Democrats and the Green Party also advanced in England, while Plaid Cymru strengthened its position in Wales to claim a record number of seats in the Senedd. In Scotland, the SNP remained the largest party, with Labour and Reform tied for second place.

Labour has been squeezed from both directions, haemorrhaging support to Reform UK on the right while simultaneously losing ground to the Greens on the left. With all results now declared, the party has lost more than 1460 councillors across England, marking a significant reversal from the momentum it carried into office just 18 months ago. The Conservatives fared only slightly better, losing more than 500 seats and ceding voters to both Reform and the Liberal Democrats. The combined effect is a recalibration of the local government landscape, with voters dispersing across a more fragmented and volatile five-party landscape.

In London, both major parties fared slightly better. The Conservatives retained Bexley, regained Westminster, and emerged as the largest party in Wandsworth, while Labour held approximately 67% of the seats it previously controlled – more than double its national retention rate of 30%.

Nevertheless, the results were still deeply disappointing for Labour given its long-standing dominance in the capital. The party lost mayoralties in Hackney and Lewisham, as well as control of councils in Haringey, Brent, Waltham Forest, Southwark, Enfield, Barnet, Lambeth, Wandsworth, Westminster and Newham. Mayor of London Sadiq Khan described the results as “bitterly disappointing” and blamed the government for the losses. 

Nationally, Reform UK has been the principal beneficiary of Labour’s decline. The party has taken control of 12 councils and secured breakthroughs in areas long considered Labour heartlands. Victories in places such as Hartlepool, Tameside and Wigan demonstrate Reform’s ability to channel anti-establishment sentiment into tangible electoral success. At the same time, it has made significant inroads into traditionally Conservative territory, including in Essex, which is home to Kemi Badenoch and much of the Conservative shadow cabinet.

In urban areas, particularly among younger and more left-wing voters, the Green Party has continued its steady rise, gaining more than 440 councillors across England and capturing the Hackney mayoralty. Meanwhile, the Liberal Democrats have also made notable gains, especially across southern England, where they consolidated their position as the primary challengers to the Conservatives in affluent and semi-rural seats.

The most dramatic institutional shift happened in Wales. Plaid Cymru has become the largest party in the Senedd, defeating Labour for the first time in devolved history. First Minister Eluned Morgan lost her seat to Plaid Cymru, underscoring the scale of Labour’s collapse.

In Scotland, the SNP retained its position as the largest party for a fifth consecutive term, though it again fell short of securing an outright majority. Labour and Reform finished tied in second place, while the pro-independence Scottish Green Party secured 15 seats. As a result, parties supporting Scottish independence now hold a majority in Holyrood, likely intensifying calls for a second independence referendum.

While the dominant narrative continues to emphasise Labour loss and Reform gain, the most striking feature of these results is the level of fragmentation. A large number of councils across England are now under no overall control with support split between four or five parties. This creates significant practical challenges for local governance. Without commanding majorities, councils struggle to commit to long-term infrastructure projects, coordinate regional development strategies, or sustain multi-year investments in areas like social care and housing. These councils cannot function effectively as consensus-building becomes necessary on even routine decisions. At a time when central government is seeking to rebuild trust and deliver tangible change, this local-level gridlock risks undermining the delivery of its wider policy agenda.

What does this mean for a future general election?

The results point to the emergence of two broad electoral blocs. On a projected national vote share, the combined “left of centre” vote – Labour, Liberal Democrats and the Greens – sits at around 56%, while the total vote share for right wing parties trails behind on 44%.

In theory, this gives the left a clear electoral advantage. In practice, however, that support is spread across multiple parties competing against one another in the same seats, increasing the risk of split votes and the likelihood of right-leaning candidates coming through the middle.

Labour’s challenge is therefore twofold: not only must it recover voters lost to Reform, but it must also find a way to consolidate the wider left-of-centre vote. Without that, a divided left risks handing a strategic advantage to a right-wing coalition at a future general election – although, for now, there is little indication that Reform and the Conservatives are willing to work together.

Where does this leave Starmer?

As the full scale of the losses sink in, the outcome for Starmer looks bleak. More than 40 MPs have already called on him to set out a timetable for his departure, with criticism cutting across factional lines.

For now, the Cabinet has sought to contain speculation, and Starmer remains adamant he will not “walk away,” despite taking responsibility for the poor results.

The mechanics of a Labour leadership challenge remain complex, and there is no obvious unity candidate.

What is clear, however, is that the coalition that delivered Labour’s landslide victory in 2024 has fractured beyond recognition. Voters are demanding change, and increasingly, so is the party itself.

All eyes now turn to the King’s Speech where Starmer will attempt to perform yet another reset. Can this moment bolster his credibility or will it simply prolong the inevitable? With pressure mounting from every side, there is an increasing sense in Westminster that his days are numbered.