FTI Consulting UK Public Affairs Snapshot: After Humza Yousaf, what next for the SNP and Scottish politics?

After Yousaf’s resignation is finalised, the Scottish Parliament will have 28 days to agree a new First Minister by a simple majority. Whether that First Minister will be able to command the confidence of the Scottish Parliament – with a political make-up of 63 SNP MSPs, 31 Scottish Conservative MSPs, 22 Scottish Labour MSPs, 7 Scottish Green MSPs, 4 Scottish Liberal Democrat MSPs, 1 Alba MSP, and 1 Independent MSP – remains to be seen.

The decision came after a tumultuous week for Yousaf that saw him unexpectedly tear up the Bute House Agreement – the SNP’s power-sharing agreement with the Scottish Greens – which kept Nicola Sturgeon, and later Yousaf, in a working majority. While this decision was unexpected, the feeling behind the scenes within both parties was that they could no longer manage the arrangement.

For the SNP, the refusal by Patrick Harvie – the co-leader of the Scottish Greens – to accept the findings of the was a key turning point.

For the Greens, the shine came off the deal when Yousaf announced that his government would miss its ambitious target to cut carbon emissions by 75% by 2030. The target was dropped just a week before the collapse of the deal and had already triggered a ballot of Green members – which was

In the end, Yousaf moved first. While the details of the conversations between the SNP and Greens on Thursday are unknown, it had been expected that the two parties would continue to support one another informally on a case-by-case basis.

Those expectations were soundly quashed after Scottish Conservative Leader Douglas Ross tabled a vote of no confidence in Yousaf during First Minister’s Questions on Thursday, leading to the Greens confirming that they would not support the First Minister in a confidence vote. The pressure then intensified when Scottish Labour Leader Anas Sarwar tabled a vote of no confidence in the Scottish Government on Friday.

In an attempt to avoid losing the vote, Yousaf wrote to the leaders of all the political parties represented in Holyrood over the weekend. The responses he received ultimately decided his fate, with only the Alba Party signalling its willingness to make a deal. However, Alba’s proposed terms, namely that the SNP should step aside in some seats at future elections, were not acceptable to Yousaf.

Scotland’s next First Minister

If 2023 was an annus horribilis for the SNP, 2024 barely seems to be getting any better. With difficult stories continuing to emerge about the previous administration, continuing controversies over its policy platform, and the SNP currently polling at their lowest in well over a decade, the position of leader looks rather less enviable than it did following Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation just over a year ago.

If the party goes to the polls now, it would likely lose seats and be no closer to forming a working majority. While the Greens may gain seats, this would be outweighed by SNP losses, with Scottish Labour likely to be the primary beneficiary.

Accordingly, while there is no obvious successor to Yousaf, the party will need a unifying figure who can somehow manage the already-damaged relations between the SNP and the other pro-independence Scottish political parties, avoiding the need for an early election. Ideally, such a figure would also project stability and good governance.  

John Swinney MSP

Swinney, a former Deputy First Minister and Deputy SNP leader, is the most experienced contender for leadership and has been touted by insiders and the media as the natural frontrunner. It had previously been understood that Swinney was looking to take a step back from frontline politics. However, the crisis in which the SNP now finds itself could change this – at the time of writing, he is understood to be giving the issue “strong consideration”. It is also possible that he could take on the top job on an interim basis until a permanent successor is chosen.

Neil Gray MSP

Gray is the current Health Secretary, having taken over from Michael Matheson MSP following the expenses scandal that culminated in his resignation. Gray is a close ally of Yousaf and is likely to be considered more of a “continuity” candidate than some of the other contenders. He was also Yousaf’s campaign manager during last year’s leadership contest. Gray is widely recognised as a solid parliamentary performer, but should the need for a fresh start be overwhelming, his close association with Yousaf might mean he is not the best person to deliver it.

Kate Forbes MSP

A former Finance Secretary and Sturgeon protégé, Forbes came exceptionally close to beating Yousaf in the last leadership contest, despite the criticism she received for her conservative views on social issues. It is widely expected that Forbes will put herself forward, but given these views she is likely to struggle to garner the support of the Greens, whose cooperation will be essential in avoiding an election.

Jenny Gilruth MSP

Gilruth is the current Education Secretary and is reported to have been canvassing colleagues over the weekend for a run at the leadership. A former teacher, Gilruth backed Yousaf in the 2023 leadership contest and is a close ally to Swinney, having once served as his parliamentary aide. While Gilruth is a relatively new Cabinet Secretary, she has been an MSP for over eight years and could be considered a far more unifying figure than Forbes. She is also less closely politically linked to Yousaf than Gray.