FTI Consulting Public Affairs Snapshot: SNP Conference 2023: In Sturgeon’s Shadow

Today, many will be returning from Aberdeen wondering if their party may become politically neutered after the next General Election. After all, with the backdrop of a senior defection to the Conservatives, constant party in-fighting, a by-election humiliation, and the ongoing police probe into the party’s finances, it may well be expected that the SNP’s post-conference mood is an anxious one.

The backdrop to conference was sombre, taking place in the days following Hamas’ attacks on Israel, and as Israel began her response. Tragically, First Minister Humza Yousaf’s in-laws found themselves trapped in Gaza, following a visit to relatives. While many would have forgiven him for taking some time out, Yousaf ploughed on despite being visibly upset by events.

Expectedly, the scale of the defeat in the Rutherglen and Hamilton-West by-election was the talk of conference and will have prompted behind-the-scenes soul-searching among the party’s upper echelons. The First Minister, Humza Yousaf, has had a tricky first six months in power, a period that has been marred with his struggle to escape the shadow of his predecessor, Nicola Sturgeon, and the ongoing police investigation into her own party dealings.

But this year, the party’s 89^th annual conference presented an opportunity for Yousaf to shed his ‘continuity candidate’ guise and present a fresh vision to the party’s membership. Instead, the headlines have been largely dominated by a Liz Truss-esque appearance from Sturgeon on the sidelines.

However, it hasn’t all been doom and gloom for the SNP. A rising star and leader of the SNP in Westminster, Stephen Flynn was accredited with a rousing opening speech on Sunday that was akin to those seen at the height of Alex Salmond’s and Nicola Sturgeon’s political powers. Somewhat of a reality check followed, with a three-hour-long debate on the party’s independence strategy heading into the next General Election.

Delegates overwhelmingly voted to adopt Yousaf and Flynn’s independence resolution, which means the party will seek to begin negotiations with the UK Government if it wins a majority of seats in Scotland at the next election. Additionally, delegates supported an amendment ensuring that the next SNP manifesto would demand the permanent transfer of powers over employment and windfall taxation.

However, following the Rutherglen and Hamilton-West by-election, it is in doubt whether the SNP will manage to win a majority of seats at the next election. The party finds itself now polling at around 35 per cent in Scotland, a far cry from the years of consecutively polling between 45 and 55 per cent at the height of the Sturgeon administration.

Despite this, there was little public recognition among the senior SNP ranks of the difficult position in which the party finds itself. The only notable recognition came from Flynn as he labelled the by-election a “humbling defeat” that would require the SNP to be “honest” with themselves.

But honesty is an interesting adjective for a party that continues to be embroiled in an ongoing police inquiry that may well derail any hopes of electoral success. If Flynn is in fact referring to the fragmented nature of the current state of the party, he may catalyse some positive change. Yet, it appears that even senior figures within the party are unwilling to constructively cooperate for the party’s greater good.

Hours before Yousaf was set to announce a plan to spend an extra £300 million to tackle the NHS backlog, his own Wellbeing Economy, Fair Work and Energy Secretary, Neil Gray, told BBC Radio Scotland that the funding for the pledge had yet to be identified, with talks across the Scottish Government still required. Going further, Gray stated that the pledge would be to the detriment of other budgets and services.

Despite this, Yousaf seemed defiant as he gave his closing address to the conference hall. His team will have viewed this conference, his first as First Minister, as one to get through relatively unscathed, and that has largely been achieved. However, the acclaim of Sturgeon still holds true and there will be a sense, especially following her surprise appearance, that Yousaf lacks a firm grip over the party’s direction. What is ultimately clear is that the SNP’s electoral dominance is beginning to wane, and with Labour snapping at its heels, there will be an air of concern among its 43 MPs.