FTI Consulting Public Affairs Snapshot – Labour Party Conference 2022

Backdrop to Conference

September 2022 will be a month remembered in UK history – the passing of Her Majesty Queen Elizabeth II was an epochal moment. People queuing for five miles to pay their respects, and leaders from around the world flying in to be present for a funeral watched by millions.

Almost directly after the mourning period ended, the Chancellor and Prime Minister, only days into their new jobs, delivered the most politically charged financial statement seen for a very long time. The economic and political fallout continues to dominate the news agenda and provided a dramatic backdrop to the Labour Party Conference in Liverpool. Through the prism of these historic events, Labour conference won’t be remembered such was its smooth passing. That said, when we look back, it might have also marked the moment when the public began to look at Keir Starmer as a Prime Minister-in-waiting.

Policy proposals and battle lines drawn

In a scene unthinkable a few years ago, Labour Conference opened with the national anthem and tributes to the late Queen. This involved a major operation by party staff in screening delegates who attending, to ensure there were no disruptions on conference floor.

Throughout the rest of the week, there were confident performances from many of the Shadow Cabinet centred around this year’s theme of “a fairer greener future”. The aim was to set out a much more defined platform than before, and illustrate, via substantial policy announcements, what a Labour government would deliver for the UK. Key pledges included the reversal of the 45p tax cut, targets for 70% home ownership, an expanded NHS workforce and 13,000 new police officers and PCSOs as well as free breakfast clubs for primary school children. Some details remain to be seen, though a party that might be two years – and a whole financial crisis – away from government will claim that buffer is wholly necessary.

Shadow Chancellor Rachel Reeves gave an assured performance and laid out Labour’s Green Priority Plan which would invest in green energy such as hydrogen and encourage economic growth. Shadow Business Secretary, Johnny Reynolds published Labour’s industrial strategy, branded ‘Prosperity through Partnership’ which he pledged would be built on partnership with business as well as trades unions. This is arguably a clear difference from the Government who have rejected the principle of an industrial strategy and an interventionist approach. There was a commitment to 100% clean power by 2030, which included doubling onshore wind, tripling solar, quadrupling offshore wind and investing in tidal and hydrogen. Labour also announced they would launch Great British Energy, a publicly owned energy company run on clean UK power, that would deliver jobs and green energy security. Further announcements included scrapping business rates and the creation of a national wealth fund to invest in towns and cities. In addition, there was a promise of a new law to crack down on corporate fraud and promises to introduce a ‘genuine’ living wage.

The Leader’s speech is the most important ‘set piece’ conference moment, providing the opportunity for Starmer to speak to the country, not just the party faithful. Doing this when Labour has been consistently ahead in the polls since December would be welcome, but for Starmer to wake to news of a poll lead of 17 points on the morning of his speech would no doubt have given him an extra spring in his step.

And he delivered what was required – a confident and assured performance, despite some murmurs that he is still not an exciting enough speaker. He presented his positive vision for the country, which he is hoping will convince the electorate that Labour, under his leadership, is ready to deliver in power. Leading up to conference, discussions amongst strategists centred on how to persuade voters that whilst there is a new Prime Minister, the Liz Truss administration is simply a continuation of the last 12 years of Conservative government. This was delivered with multiple attacks on the Conservative record, highlighting that the new Cabinet was simply a reorganisation of the same people. What was also clear, were the new dividing lines on the economy that have presented themselves following the Chancellor’s fiscal statement on the Friday prior to conference starting. Whilst this new approach from Truss and Kwarteng somewhat undermines Labour’s planned arguments, they will not have been upset to have been gifted an even stronger avenue of attack.

Starmer’s leadership

This conference, Starmer has emerged as more comfortable and confident in his own political skin. There is a willingness from Labour to be seen as a party of business and aspiration, confidently taking the centre ground. Rachel Reeves, Jonathan Reynolds, Tulip Siddiq and Seema Malhotra were among those out on the fringe circuit emphasising that Labour is the party of both business AND workers.  Labour will need to do more, though, to get all their Shadow Ministers to buy into this strategy with some teams still failing to engage well with industry.

Starmer’s assertion that that, moving forward, his focus was “country first, party second” was an important moment, but one that will prove much easier to spell out in theory than deliver in practice. Pivoting to the country, away from the internal politics of the party will come with challenges as manifestos are drawn up. Difficult choices on the balance between tax and spending, regulation and deregulation must be made in a tough economic climate with a high deficit. With the Budget in November, and deregulation high on Truss’ agenda, Starmer will face a different policy landscape at the point of the next election. Notably Starmer also confidently laid out his position on Brexit; that he would not reverse it. Whilst many in the party do not agree with this position, even this didn’t cause the divisions we have seen in recent years on conference floor.

Starmer’s critics still say he is not bold enough – too boring, too safe. Some have argued that Labour’s poll lead until now reflected the frustrations voters have at the Government rather than a rise in popularity for a Labour government. However, new You Gov polling puts Labour ahead on every measure on cost of living and delivering economic growth with the exception of ‘making a success of Brexit’. Rumours of a leadership challenge that had been gently swirling earlier in the year will now be firmly quashed.

At a time when the public fear that Liz Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng have taken an unnecessary gamble on the economy, Starmer’s team are hoping that a safe pair of hands will become even more highly valued.

Conference takeaways

The biggest headache for the party to manage this year was a motion on proportional representation for Westminster elections, which is notable as it is not a particularly controversial issue in itself. The motion passed, but Shadow Ministers were at pains to point out that does not mean it will be adopted as official party policy.

There were also no large rows on Brexit, or nationalisation, or the fundamental rules of how the Labour Party works. Of course, these issues were still discussed in debates and in fringe meetings, but the existential dividing lines and fierce rows of the last few years had significantly subsided. This is partly because of the parallel conference, run by Momentum, which draws those who have supported Corbyn in recent years away from Labour’s own conference.

There was a contagious feeling of optimism amongst delegates, with many believing the next election is in the bag for Labour. There was a noticeably higher attendance from commercial attendees, with someone remarking ‘you can tell Labour is on the up because of the number of Tory lobbyists here’ – this reflects the need to engage with the party who are back in contention to form the next Government.

For anyone looking for gossip, infighting and disagreement, this conference was dull, but party staff and Starmer’s office will be delighted with that. They were however furious with Rupa Huq MP, who was recorded at a fringe event claiming Kwasi Kwarteng was “superficially” black. This was dealt with swiftly by the Labour leadership and she was administratively suspended with Starmer describing the remarks as “stupid and racist”.

What next for the Labour party?

The task of winning the next election is still huge for Labour, given their current number of MPs and the number of different groups and areas in which they will have to win support. Whilst they left Liverpool on a high, this will need to be tempered with a dose of realism to keep their focus on a winning strategy.

Starmer has to stick to his strategy of making Labour electable, even when that comes into conflict with party instincts, and at the same time adapt to the fast-moving cost of living crisis and developing economic situation.

The new Prime Minister and Chancellor have taken an almighty economic and political gamble, and if it does not pay off in the medium term, they may have helped put Labour one step closer to Downing Street. Much could change before the next General Election is called, but Starmer and his team will rightly be basking in the glory of a successful week in Liverpool.