FTI Consulting Public Affairs Snapshot: King’s Speech 2023 – With an election looming, was this the ‘reset’ moment needed for Sunak?

The last time the Government’s priorities for the year ahead were formally set out, things were rather different. The Prime Minister was Boris Johnson. Liz Truss was still on the front benches. And, although then-Prince Charles had to stand in at the last minute to deliver it, it was still very much the Queen’s Speech.

Two Prime Ministers later, the King’s Speech was the second of three set-piece events this autumn designed to show what the Sunak administration is all about. Following a muted response to the announcements made at Conservative Party Conference, resolutely sluggish poll ratings, and a drumbeat of scandals and by-election losses, the Conservatives are very aware that opportunities are running out for them to make the political weather.

One way to make that weather is by focusing on “wedge issues” – those designed to display clear blue water between the Conservatives and Labour over the coming months. This is a high-risk approach: “red meat” galvanises the party’s core support base but risks alienating swing voters; however, since the Conservatives’ unexpected by-election victory in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, majorly driven by the unpopular ULEZ road charging scheme, CCHQ considers it effective.

In addition, policies are being framed as “difficult but necessary long-term decisions to change this country for the better”, citing Ukraine and the pandemic as having created new challenges which require a new approach.

Translated into policy, this means a thematic focus on security, resilience, and economic growth: all worthy aims which theoretically allow Rishi Sunak to play to his strengths. As such, we saw a high-profile intervention to require North Sea oil and gas licences to be awarded on an annual basis, with ministers arguing this would “bolster energy security” (though Claire Coutinho, the Energy Secretary, has admitted they may not bring down household energy bills).

Similarly, legislation taking forward the practicalities of the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) will lock in another key part of the Government’s trade and economic strategy.

Crime, another theme likely to dominate the coming months, was also addressed, with five bills aiming to cement the Conservatives as the party of law and order and creating a swathe of new police powers and criminal offices. Notably, following the Lucy Letby case, the Criminal Justice Bill will force criminals to attend their sentencing hearings, and allow the Government to rent prison places abroad to alleviate domestic pressures. Given the ongoing Rwanda row, difficulties might arise when it comes to implementation.

The Government’s bid to strengthen society centred on housing issues – a response to Starmer’s pledge to back “builders not blockers”. Bans on leasehold for new houses and rules strengthening the rights of existing leaseholders mark the next step in Michael Gove’s programme of reforms.

Other measures, including making it easier to evict anti-social tenants and speeding up evictions where tenants are clearly at fault, should placate landlords. A ban on ‘no fault evictions’, first promised in the 2019 Conservative manifesto, will also go ahead, although only once new court procedures are in place. But root-and-branch reform has been placed in the “too difficult” box.

Home Secretary Suella Braverman’s proposal to ban tents for the homeless was conspicuous by their absence. The plans drew sharp criticism over the weekend, including from fellow Conservatives. Also shelved – despite previously hinted at – were plans to hinder the rollout of 20mph zones and low-traffic neighbourhoods, though such plans will need to be sent to a digitalised central platform.

Legislation on AI, A-level reforms, mental health, nutrient neutrality and conversion therapy are also off the table, for now, and the plans for offshore oil and gas, it emerges, were also considerably watered down due to last-minute legal concerns raised by officials.

Criticism has centred around three themes. The first is that the Conservatives are still concentrating too much on culture war issues, with particular focus on the Offshore Petroleum Licensing Bill, perceived as intended largely to wind Labour up.

The second theme is lack of ambition, with Labour leader Keir Starmer saying the speech only offered “more of the same” and, though “Rishi Sunak admits the country needs to change”, “the Tories can’t fix the country because they’ve already failed”.

Finally, critics have asked whether some of the smaller-scale, free-standing legislation proposed – around pedicabs, driverless cars, and a football regulator, for instance – is really the mark of an ambitious Government focused on the big picture. Some legislation is by its nature niche, but with the Conservative Party 20 points behind, it is difficult to see a new football regulator making a significant difference to its electoral prospects.

Traditionalists will be pleased with King Charles’ assured delivery and sense of ceremony. In many respects, though, the speech signalled less the start of a new era than the end of an old one. The fear among many of the Prime Minister’s Parliamentary colleagues is that playing it safe won’t be enough to give the party a fighting chance at the next election.

There remain opportunities to set out a more expansive vision for Britain’s future, and the internal thinking is that the time to do so is in the March Budget, on the back of – No 10 hopes – better economic figures. In the meantime, however, critics are forming a narrative that this legislative programme represents a timid administration running out of ideas. Changing that perception has now become a little bit harder.