FTI Consulting Public Affairs Snapshot: Election Special – The Bell Tolls for DUP: These Northern Ireland Assembly Elections are the most important in a generation

The Party heads into Assembly Elections in May playing high stakes, and with everything to lose. Under Sir Jeffrey Donaldson, the DUP has gambled, staying true to its word of collapsing the Northern Ireland Executive if the Protocol in its current form – which imposes checks on certain goods travelling from the UK to Northern Ireland, effectively creating a border in the Irish Sea – was not revised. On 3^rd February, the DUP First Minister Paul Givan resigned, simultaneously forcing Sinn Féin Deputy First Minister Michelle O’Neill out of her job by dint of Northern Ireland’s unique power-sharing constitution, and rendering Northern Irish Government non-existent yet again. Only the ballot box will tell if that move was inspired or foolhardy.

It all stands in stark contrast to the DUP’s moment in the sun, when the confidence and supply agreement brought about by Theresa May’s failure to secure a majority in the 2017 General Election meant that the Party found itself with an unprecedented opportunity to meaningfully voice its opposition to the UK’s political direction on Brexit. DUP hard-liners were able to stick to their positions in the knowledge that the Government would be rendered immobile without their votes in the House of Commons.

However, fast forward to 2022 and the DUP has no sway whatsoever, its influence obliterated by Boris Johnson’s decisive 2019 election victory.  Ever since, this cold dose of reality has meant that Unionists, however affronted by Johnson’s compromises on Northern Ireland’s frontier with the rest of the UK, have had to deal with a situation in which Downing Street has shown little in the way of appetite to consult. It has thus been a major risk for the DUP to collapse the Executive over the Protocol, as well as make it their central issue going forward.

The Protocol, as far as both London and Brussels are concerned, is a best-case scenario which has prevented a No-Deal Brexit whilst addressing the unique position of Northern Ireland. To both signatories, the Protocol is a teething problem which requires months of ironing out. To the DUP, however, regulatory divergence from the UK in the form of a border in the Irish Sea is an existential threat and one in which they are urging their voter base to view similarly. But the DUP’s gamble has been further compounded by the fact that the vast majority of the Northern Ireland population care more about the current cost-of-living crisis and health system pressures. The Party’s core issue, therefore, is one which London, Brussels and the Northern Irish electorate appear to hold low on their immediate priority list.

Where Northern Ireland is Going

Going into this election, the DUP has placed its eggs in one basket, hoping to animate the Unionist voter base to shout loudly about Northern Ireland’s place in the UK. Yet in doing so, it has given Sinn Féin perhaps the easiest and most valuable open goal in recent Northern Irish election history. Sinn Féin is not just accusing the DUP of collapsing power-sharing altogether but rather is laying much of the region’s problems squarely at their door, emphasising that health and the cost-of-living crisis are subordinate to mere ideology in the DUP’s eyes. This position – a refusal to accept the Protocol – ranks below health and economy as the main concern of voters across the Unionist and Nationalist split, according to latest polls.

The strategy of the DUP in selecting its candidates for the Assembly Elections also suggest that the Party is preparing for significant losses, if not outright defeat. The frantic shuffling of former leader Edwin Poots to a Belfast safe seat from Lagan Valley and indecision by the DUP’s current leader on how many and precisely who would run in this area – including himself, in his own Parliamentary constituency – suggests the Party is deeply concerned and may be attempting to save face.

Perhaps even more confusing is the DUP’s comments upon the launch of its campaign last week. Speaking to supporters, Sir Jeffrey Donaldson said that the DUP would not be re-entering an Executive which is “required to implement a Protocol that harms Northern Ireland every day.” At the same time, Donaldson has also refused to confirm whether he would enter an Executive should Sinn Féin become the largest party. The risk – evidenced in polling – is that Unionist voters may be unhappy with the Protocol but the more pressing issues of rising bills and healthcare backlogs matter more. Neither seems likely to be fixed with an Executive in shutdown.

Latest polling also suggests that Sinn Féin’s popularity has risen to 27%, extending its lead over the DUP to almost seven points. To say that a Sinn Féin victory would be an earthquake in UK politics is an understatement. Much of the party’s core voter base will see this as a resounding justification for a referendum on a United Ireland. Indeed, the DUP has extensively focused on this, stating that such an outcome will inevitably lead to a “divisive border-poll.” Yet Sinn Féin have again been tactful in recent weeks, instead focusing on issues such as the cost-of-living, whilst allowing the DUP to continue splitting internally and appear vociferously nervous externally. That a focus on ‘real’ issues will appeal to a population which is changing demographically, is less attached to ideological predispositions and is not only becoming more progressive but desires progress in any form cannot be emphasised enough.

In the event that the DUP does win, the immediate aftermath for Northern Ireland, its businesses and its communities will again be a state of limbo, with sticking points over the Protocol between London and Brussels looking set to remain for many months ahead. The risk is that, in the meantime, and without a functioning Executive, serious economic damage will simultaneously impact a region that has been starved of effective government. The irony is that even in victory, the DUP’s ideological commitment to opposing the Protocol may only further drum up support for a drastic and possibly turbulent change in the political status of Northern Ireland, precisely in the manner that Sinn Féin and its base desire.

Why Northern Ireland Matters

The Irish poet Seamus Heaney’s translation of Beowulf states that “behaviour that’s admired is the path to power among people everywhere.” If such a verse is taken literally, the upcoming elections do not bode well for the DUP. The long-term threat to the Union from the results of this election are acute. It is a humorous, if not upsetting, fact that it has been promulgated by a party that is so loyal to it that it could be instrumental in its very undoing.

Yet what is even more depressing is that in all of the political strife that has been inflicted upon the region in recent years, the hope of stable government remains wholly uncertain regardless of outcome. Northern Ireland’s people desire good jobs and quality healthcare, its businesses – from agriculture to aerospace – yearn for economic confidence. Politics looks set to shy away once again from genuine cross-party consensus on issues which could benefit of all of Northern Ireland, particularly in the economically volatile environment it finds itself. The only difference is that, if polls are to be believed, we may not just have debates on the immediate political stability of the region but rather its political status in the Union altogether.