FTI Consulting Public Affairs Snapshot – Boom or bust? Chris Skidmore’s ‘Mission Zero’ calls for an all-in approach towards a green economy

The public would be forgiven for forgetting that Mission Zero, a Truss backed review into the UK’s net zero transition, was only authorised to appease a small lobby of Conservative MPs sceptical of the process. The growing power of the Net Zero Scrutiny Group (NZSG), made up entirely of backbench Conservative MPs, have sought to seed perspectives that climate policies are an act of self-harm on the UK’s economy. This included the group’s founder, Steve Baker, who claimed in October that the UK could no longer afford a transition to net zero. On the contrary, through building its conclusions on strong evidence and analysis, Skidmore’s magnum opus decisively concludes the transition to net zero as the economic opportunity of the century. Albeit, caveated by the admission that the over-promising and under-delivery of the past is not an option going forward.

The review contains 129 recommendations to “turbocharge” the nation’s climate action, with more than half being set deadlines before years end. These proposals include a “solar and onshore wind revolution,” which complements Prime Minister Rishi Sunak’s U-turn in December to end a moratorium on new onshore wind projects, albeit with new projects still requiring community support. Additionally, the report calls for an earlier ban on the sale of new gas boilers and stricter targets for electric-car sales imposed on manufacturers.

Skidmore, a former energy minister did not pull any punches in frank criticism of the government, and his own party, which included the admission that we are “not matching world-leading ambition with world-leading delivery”. He also indicated that inconsistencies in appetite for transitional policymaking had cost businesses and the wider economy. This conclusion has been repeatedly admonished upon the government by its own climate advisers, the Climate Change Committee (CCC), who have often cited l failures of achieving emissions-cutting targets.

Ensuring Delivery

The UK’s stance on net zero targets has received plaudits for ambition and scope, such as for the commitment to a fully decarbonised power sector by 2035, but substantial policy to drive these ambitions has been found wanting. In 2021 hope was cemented on Glasgow’s COP 26 to serve, on a policy level, as the UK’s net zero accelerator. In 2022, war in Ukraine became the desired catalyst, as European states looked to end decades-old reliance on Russian oil and gas, instead turning to more sustainable sources of energy. However, in an environmental volte-face, the UK government ended 2022 by announcing it will open the first new coal mine in the country in 30 years.

The reality is the transition to net zero was always going to be imperfect by including elements of fossil fuels to bridge the gaps. However, the messaging around this has failed to instil the knowledge that the transition was never going to be a matter of switching energy sources practically overnight. Especially while the technological and regulatory landscape are playing catch up to ambitious and comprehensive targets.

The overarching message of Skidmore’s report is that some action is better than no action and choosing the latter will only become more detrimental to the economy as we edge closer to 2050. This point is echoed throughout the 129 recommendations, of which 74 include a deadline for this year, that it’s simply now or never. In this regard, the report proposes significant additional governmental action to ensure the UK achieves net-zero in the most optimal way for the economy and the public. That being said, the utility of additional action, as set out by the report’s respondents, is reliant on clarity, certainty, consistency, and continuity from government. Something the Conservatives have struggled with across a number of policy areas in the preceding 12 months.

To facilitate this, Skidmore has given significant attention to short-term net zero coordination with the following key recommendations:

• Publish, before Autumn 2023, a review of how the UK should change regulation for emerging net zero technologies to enable their rapid and safe introduction.
• Government to establish an ‘Office for Net Zero Delivery’ by Spring 2023, to ensure that the cross-departmental priorities for net zero are properly managed.
• Government to consider the case for creating new separate delivery agencies to deliver long-term decarbonisation programmes.
• New ‘Net Zero select committees’ should be created in both Houses of Parliament.
• Government to significantly expand its public reporting on net zero – potentially either through the ONS’s climate portal or developed in partnership with the CCC.

These measures would bring forth sorely needed transparency and accountability to prevent politicians hiding behind climate action rhetoric. Significantly, it will also prevent new administrations waiving their environmental responsibilities, which should serve to expedite the net zero delivery.

The year ahead

Implementing the net zero transition has been aptly described as the most ambitious engineering challenge ever undertaken, but it’s also a huge political undertaking, even without considering the issue’s growing polarisation. Furthermore, Sunak and the Conservatives risk being outmanoeuvred by the opposition should they continue to dither on net zero.

Keir Starmer and his Labour Party have majored on net zero and the Party’s conference in September reflected how pertinent the issue is among the frontbench as well as the grassroots activists. The respective speeches of Sunak and Starmer to the CBI Conference in November illustrated that Sunak risks falling behind the times on issues like green growth. While Starmer’s speech came in stark contrast to Sunak’s address that failed to even mention net zero, renewables or climate change.

There’s no doubt to Skidmore that the months ahead require a change in step from the Prime Minister and his government in what is amongst, if not the most, critical years for the UK to start turning the transition into materiality.

The prospect of turbocharging the net zero transition in 2023 must be sobering thought for a Prime Minister that only took office three short months ago. Especially given the headwinds facing the global economy and the cost-of-living crisis at home. Recessions have never been an attractive time to invest, but for the self-proclaimed ‘party of growth,’ there appears no better opportunity to spur green growth and galvanize the UK’s climatic future.