Welsh Parliament elections 2021
The Welsh elections told a different story for Labour, with the party exceeding expectations by securing 30 seats in the Senedd – just one short of an outright majority. With Mark Drakeford expected to be reappointed as First Minister and reports that the party is planning to now form a “stable and progressive” minority government, the result will create some breathing space for Labour, who continue an impressive 22 years in Government.
This follows unusually high levels of publicity for the First Minister, as Drakeford – known for his calm, scholarly approach to the crisis – guided the Welsh response to Covid-19 and led press conferences in the public eye akin to those of Johnson and Sturgeon. Towards the latter half of the week, he will begin filling cabinet positions, which will provide an insight into Labour’s vision for the future of Wales across devolved areas of healthcare, education and transport.
Elsewhere, the Conservatives gains, securing 16 seats in the Senedd, an increase from 2016 with one constituency seat taken from Labour in the Vale of Clwyd in north Wales. While the Conservatives have returned their largest number of members in history to the Welsh Parliament, this performance was less striking than the wider Conservative gains in England.
In contrast, Plaid Cymru faced disappointment as they struggled to overturn a majority of just 754 in Aberconwy and failed to win Llanelli, with the most striking result seeing former leader Leanne Wood unseated in the Rhondda to Labour candidate, Elizabeth Buffy Williams. The Liberal Democrats suffered more, with their vote share plummeting and holding onto only one Senedd seat in a very disappointing result for a party with a long history in Wales.
The Welsh Government will be eagerly watching constitutional disputes unfold between Sturgeon and Johnson, as the SNP leads inevitable calls for a second Scottish independence referendum. While the immediate ambition for independence is not found at the same scale in Wales as it is in Scotland, the fate of the constitution is no doubt a key issue for the Welsh administration.
This election was also significant itself constitutionally, given that it was the first time 16 and 17-year-olds were able to vote in the Welsh Parliamentary elections – this was made all the more interesting as Wales began vaccinating 18-29 year olds last week, which likely played a key role in Labour securing their best-ever result in the Senedd.
While Labour begins to regroup and reflect on their losses in England, Welsh Labour demonstrates a considerable resilience in the face of shifting voter trends elsewhere in the UK. The country has clearly seen Drakeford as a measured, viable leader, and his party as a credible incumbent to lead the country through the last leg of the pandemic and into economic recovery. While one may question whether Starmer has some lessons to learn from Drakeford, it is clear that Wales remains a comparative stronghold for the left – whether it can navigate rocky waters ahead remains to be seen.
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