Scottish Parliament elections 2021

The run up to the Holyrood elections provided high drama with the return of Alex Salmond to the political stage causing a headache for the SNP. The results, in comparison, were largely drama free in an election which saw very few constituency seats change hands and, with the addition of the regional list seats, little change in the overall composition of the Holyrood chamber.

The SNP failed by just one seat to get the overall majority they were quietly hoping for. The party managed expectations on this well, repeating the line that the proportional representation system used for the Scottish elections is designed to avoid one party dominance. Some of the SNP’s opponents are briefing that they should have easily met this electoral test given that everything was stacked in their favour, but their return to power is unquestionably impressive, as a fourth term Government.

Despite falling short of an overall majority, the SNP will be able to govern comfortably with the support of the pro-independence Scottish Green Party, who added two seats to their number at the expense of Scottish Labour. The results provided only one high profile casualty as Paul Wheelhouse, Minister for Energy, Connectivity and the Islands failed to take a seat from the Conservatives.

The pattern of incumbents doing well across the UK held firm in Scotland. Nicola Sturgeon has personally fronted daily Covid briefings throughout the pandemic, which have placed her directly into the living rooms of a captive audience for over a year. Despite marginal differences in the handling of the pandemic and health outcomes between Scotland and England, Sturgeon has won the communications battle, with a majority of Scots viewing her as more trustworthy than the Prime Minister, at least with regards to her handling of the Covid crisis.

Unionists point to a majority of votes in the constituencies being for anti-independence parties, and the electoral system allowing for ‘double counting’ of voters using the Green Party as a vehicle to elect more independence supporting MSPs. In reality this will have no impact on what happens next. Just as in the aftermath of the 2014 referendum, the SNP had their lines thought out and their spokespeople entirely on message, claiming a mandate for a second independence referendum based on a majority of independence MSPs being elected.

Despite arguably poor performances in the televised debates, Douglas Ross comfortably held onto the Conservative’s spot as the second largest party in Holyrood, with a consistent and clear position on the constitution since 2014 standing him in good stead, and the loss of the popular Ruth Davidson not proving as detrimental as his members feared.

Anas Sarwar will be disappointed that Scottish Labour did not make more progress and in fact lost two seats. However, their vote share is up significantly on poll ratings from the start of the year under the previous leader when the party was facing obliteration. Sarwar ran an energetic campaign and the party membership will give him more time to build on the short run he has had so far. He will be helped by the addition of some new faces in his parliamentary group, giving Scottish Labour the refresh it so desperately needed, and the backbone which will be required should a second referendum become a reality.

Both Salmond’s Alba party and George Galloway’s All for Unity party failed to win a single seat. The two will continue to insert their voices into the constitutional debate, but it will be from outside the Holyrood Chamber.

The results show a nation completely divided on the omnipresent constitutional question. The Sunday political shows were dominated by discussion of the legal route to securing independence; Holyrood does not have the powers to legislate for a referendum and the Conservative Government at Westminster has said they will not allow such a vote to take place. This is partly an issue of conflicting mandates, with both anxious to deliver on their respective manifesto promises. In truth Nicola Sturgeon is not confident of winning an independence vote were it to be held soon and as such 2023 is emerging as her preferred date. For Scotland and indeed the whole of the UK, this means years of constitutional wrangling to come.

 

Click here to go back to the FTI Consulting Public Affairs Snapshot – 2021 Mayoral, Scottish, Welsh and Local Elections Analysis.

 

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