Public & Government Affairs

Distilling the Real Impacts of Bank Capital Increases

The Federal Reserve has unveiled its much anticipated Basel capital standards for large banks. While the  Basel “endgame” capital rules can sound technical and abstract, these standards are just as onerous as they sound and have the potential to significantly impact everyday lending, mortgages, and retail banking operations[1]. Without a sufficient regulatory cost-benefit analysis of these impacts, the industry stands at risk of erasing past progress and unintentionally tightening lending and credit access for consumers.

On July 27, the prudential bank regulators – the Federal Reserve, Office of Comptroller of the Currency, and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation – announced a proposal for a new regime of capital standards for banks with more than USD100 billion in assets[2],[3]. The Basel endgame is a framework that sets uniform international standards for bank capital adequacy, stress testing, and liquidity requirements established by the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS). This most recent proposal would be the most comprehensive prudential regulatory standard change for banks in almost a decade.

The Basel rules would set a new industry standard for measuring risk and other activities and would dictate how conservative banks must be in measuring their risk while forcing them to hold more capital in case of losses – capital that could otherwise be put to work in the form of small business lending, consumer mortgages, etc. Under the proposal, banks with at least USD100 billion in assets would have to boost the amount of capital set aside by an estimated 16%[4]. The eight largest banks face about a 19% increase, with lenders between USD100 billion and USD250 billion in assets seeing as little as 5% more, according to agency officials[5].

The plans, as proposed, would spare smaller institutions such as community banks, but it would increase standards for larger, regional lenders that previously were considered too small to be subject to the most stringent capital rules. Of course, these proposals come shortly after the failure of Silicon Valley Bank, Signature Bank, and First Republic which raised questions about the Fed’s previously “tailored” capital levels for smaller and mid-sized banks. “Today’s proposal also represents an effort to recast the narrative about the March 2023 bank failures, which resulted from a failure to manage and examine interest rate risk and deposit concentration risk,” the Bank Policy Institute, an industry trade group said in a statement.[6]

Communications and Public Affairs Considerations

The industry should be highly activated but not completely discouraged. Federal Reserve members, including Chairman Jerome Powell[7], raised concern on the new rule and appear open to changes to make the standards more manageable.[8] To best inform these changes and see them come to fruition, we recommend the industry take a comprehensive communications and public affairs campaign, including:

Provide the Data: Industry trade groups have already started pushing back on the rule by pointing out contradictory statements from the Federal Reserve and the lack of analysis. However, the industry should also show actual data in a compelling format to move the needle on these changes.

Clearly Articulate the Impact: The industry statements already raised the generic lines that the rules would harm lending, but, to be impactful, they need to provide clearer proof points to move regulators and galvanize third parties. Basel can be complicated and overwhelming for those without a banking legal background, so any impact statements need to avoid industry jargon and focus on how this will impact consumers, not just the regulatory lawyers in the banking industry. For example, the impact may be most felt in the mortgage market. The proposal would include stiffer requirements for large banks’ residential mortgage portfolios which would directly limit the availability of mortgages. The housing industry can play a critical role in helping to explain what this rule could mean for everyday Americans.

Educate for Education’s Sake: Many of the media and policymakers were not active in banking the last time Basel changes were proposed. Capital alphabet jargon can be complicated and overwhelming. The industry needs to spend the next few months educating to create a knowledge baseline before moving too quickly with any advocacy demonstrating the impact of these changes.

Activate Third Party Partners or End Users: The best message on the impact of the capital increases may be best delivered from those most harmed by the rule. For example, the NAACP, Mortgage Bankers Association, and the National Urban League sent a letter to the Federal Reserve, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (OCC) and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (FDIC) on July 24 saying that if “these standards are adopted, they will have a devastating impact on our efforts to increase Black homeownership and disadvantage all first-time, and, in particular, first-generation homebuyers.” [9]  The industry needs to engage and activate similar voices to show the real-life impact of the proposed rules on consumers.

Final Thoughts

Basel is going to be a months or years long battle for the industry. The window within which to influence and improve the proposal is now. The longer the industry and its advocates wait, the greater the risk we run of doing harm to consumer lending and to the economy as a whole at such a critical time in our nation’s economic recovery.

[1] Jennifer Surane and Katanga Johnson, “Why Bigger ‘Capital Cushions’ Have Banks On Edge,” Bloomberg (August 3, 2023), https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2023-08-03/why-big-banks-are-worried-about-new-capital-requirements?sref=0VhLjdWy (Subscription required)

[2] “Agencies request comment on proposed rules to strengthen capital requirements for large banks,” Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and Office of the Comptroller of the Currency (July 27, 2023), https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/bcreg20230727a.htm

[3] “Federal Reserve Board announces the individual capital requirements for all large banks, effective on October 1,” Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (July 27, 2023), https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/bcreg20230727b.htm

[4] “Regulatory capital rule: Amendments applicable to large banking organizations and to banking organizations with significant trading activity,” Department of Treasury, 12 CFR Parts 3, 6, 32, Federal Reserve System, 12 CFR Parts 208, 217, 225, 238, 252 and Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, 12 CFR Part 324 (Docket ID OCC-2023-0008), https://www.federalreserve.gov/aboutthefed/boardmeetings/frn-basel-iii-20230727.pdf

[5] See supra note [1]

[6] Sean Oblack, “BPI Response to Banking Agencies’ Basel Proposal,” Bank Policy Institute (July 27, 2023), https://bpi.com/bpi-response-to-banking-agencies-basel-proposal/

[7] “Statement by Chair Jerome H. Powell,” Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (July 27, 2023), https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/powell-statement-20230727.htm

[8] Victoria Guida, “Powell voices skepticism at Fed’s own bank rule proposal,” PoliticoPro (July 27, 2023), https://subscriber.politicopro.com/article/2023/07/27/powell-skepticism-bank-proposal-00108530

[9] Letter from National Housing Conference, Mortgage Bankers Association, NAACP, National Association of REALTORS® and National Urban League to The Honorable Jerome Powell, Chairman, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, The Honorable Michael Hsu, Comptroller, Office of the Comptroller of the Currency and The Honorable Martin Gruenberg, Chair, Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation (July 24, 2023), https://nhc.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/Housing-Groups-Letter-re-Bank-Capital-7.25.23.pdf

The views expressed in this article are those of the author(s) and not necessarily the views of FTI Consulting, its management, its subsidiaries, its affiliates, or its other professionals.

©2023 FTI Consulting, Inc. All rights reserved. www.fticonsulting.com

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