COVID-19 UK Political Analysis by Tim Hames – 2nd October 2020

The atmosphere in Parliament and with the public at large towards the measures being imposed to control the second outbreak of COVID-19 is clearly coming under huge strain. The contrast with the strong sense of national unity and almost universal support for the introduction of the lockdown back in March is striking. The pace of events means that local conditions are being reassessed and in some cases dramatic rules handed down at very little notice. There may come a point when there are so many “local” lockdowns of various forms that the whole notion of there being a national set of regulations of any meaningful kind becomes close to an irrelevance. This is quicksand terrain for ministers.

Yet despite all this, the list of key questions that will determine policy for the remainder of 2020 is becoming clearer, even if the answers to them remain matters of speculation. This framework of “known unknowns” is unlikely to alter much before January 2021, although Whitehall will be hoping and praying that its ability to start settling on definitive answers and then its capacity to deliver the required solutions by then will be improved. It is scant compensation that there are numerous other countries throughout Europe and beyond who have very similar challenges and few can be confident that they have the resources to limit the damage of the second wave and move back towards normality. This edition of the FTI Weekly UK Political Analysis will, therefore, set out ten central questions and issues which No. 10 and the main departmental players are considering.