COVID-19 UK Political Analysis by Tim Hames – 9th October 2020

The fringe meeting element of the rather surreal virtual Conservative Party conference and some modest revolts among Conservative MPs in the House of Commons this week were indications of an irritable mood, to put it mildly, within the party in Parliament. The regular survey of sentiment amongst the party membership (or at least the most active element of it) by ConservativeHome also suggested that discontent with the direction of events as they stand was held more deeply than merely within Westminster itself. This has translated into media speculation about the performance and even the psychological state of the Prime Minister and, at times, whether his tenure in 10 Downing Street might expire involuntarily before the next general election currently scheduled for May 2024.

Boris Johnson felt obliged to respond to these suggestions directly both in a television interview on Sunday and in his conference speech when he denied a diminished “mojo”. His colleagues did their best to minimise the sense of internal disagreement over policy.

This is, nonetheless, almost certain to be a very challenging few months for ministers even if the development of a vaccine at the earlier end of the credible timetable range allows them to offer a sense of a light at the end of the tunnel. It is a racing certainty that this will reinforce a whispering campaign against the Prime Minister within Westminster itself and continued media musings as to whether Mr Johnson has the stomach for the role that he has been obliged to play and what his prospects of remaining leader may be. This has the potential to be a destablising factor in politics during this difficult period.