COVID-19 UK Political Analysis by Tim Hames – 26th June 2020

Lockdown is loosening in the UK, as it has been in many countries across Europe. England, which was hit first by the coronavirus crisis, has moved the furthest. July 4th this year will be celebrated by more than just Americans. Yet the mood is cautious, even wary. The tone of Boris Johnson’s statement in the House of Commons on Tuesday was certainly not one of celebration. Any move that enhances mobility involves risk, which is made harder by the reality that it is virtually impossible to measure the R number in anything close to instant time. Not only is some form of second spike likely, but it is very probable. The core issues are the size of any increase in infection rates, where these are most likely to occur, what sort of people are most likely to catch the virus, how swiftly those who had contact with them are traced and whether outbreaks be contained.