BRICS 2026: Strategic Autonomy and Economic Integration in a Fragmenting Global Order
The current global landscape highlights a fundamental truth about BRICS: it is not a monolithic geopolitical alliance, but a pragmatic economic platform. Rather than seeking a unified political voice, the bloc operates on a model of strategic autonomy, where members prioritize national interests while deepening bilateral agendas according to a pragmatic consideration of national interests. By focusing on economic cooperation – from digital infrastructure to supply chain resilience – BRICS demonstrates that substantial partnership can flourish even when national diplomatic positions diverge. Moreover, the lack of a single position in response to global tensions throughout the last months reflects the group’s core identity as a flexible framework for multi-alignment, that seeks to reduce exposure to risks and guarantee influence in shaping a new world order.
Brazil
- Recent geopolitically charged events, such as the conflict in Iran, are creating a significant stress test for Brazil’s doctrine of non-automatic alignment. While the Brazilian government has formally condemned violations of international law, it has maintained a highly cautious diplomatic stance to avoid hurting its delicate bilateral relationship with the United States – which is just recovering after last year’s tariff standoff. This requires navigating a difficult “middle ground,” as Iran’s status as a BRICS member (and relevant trade partner) places Brazil in a position where it must balance solidarity with its bloc partners against its essential negotiations with Washington, ensuring that geopolitical tensions do not derail its primary economic interests.
- This volatile global environment presents a complex energy paradox that threatens Brazil’s domestic stability. While the government initially mirrored the harder tone of some BRICS partners regarding the initial strikes, its subsequent condemnation of Iranian retaliation reflects a pragmatic effort to prevent the conflict’s expansion. This “double condemnation” serves a dual purpose: it upholds the doctrine of autonomy while addressing the high economic stakes at home. As a top crude exporter still structurally dependent on imported refined fuels and fertilizers, Brazil faces a persistent risk of pass-through inflation—a destabilizing scenario the administration must aggressively mitigate during a critical electoral year.
- Brazil is leveraging the institutional trust built through years of BRICS cooperation to move beyond simple commodity trade toward deep technological integration. While the bloc has historically served as a hedge for trade, these long-standing relationships are now paving the way for intensified bilateral agreements in strategic sectors like AI, critical minerals, and healthcare. This shift was underscored during last week’s state visit from South African President Cyril Ramaphosa; building on their shared history as BRICS partners, President Lula emphasized that without joint technological and military self-reliance, developing nations risk future “invasions.” Overall, this signals Brazil’s vision for the bloc: hat it should prioritize deeper integration over further expansion.
"For Brazil, BRICS serves as a strategic hedge, providing trade diversification options to avoid the pitfalls of overexposure to any single global market, while opening unique pathways for developing several bilateral agendas in critical areas. However, Brazil’s multi-aligned posture significantly heightens complexity for both diplomats and businesses. For the first group, this means a delicate 'middle ground' approach to avoid alienating key partners at all times. For the private sector, this translates into a more intricate operating environment, demanding rigorous management of overlapping regulatory compliance and the navigation of increasingly fragmented global supply chains."
Natalia Mejia
Director, Public Affairs, Brazil
India
- India assumes the BRICS presidency at a volatile geopolitical moment, positioning itself as a stabilizing, commercially grounded actor for global businesses navigating supply chain diversification and emerging market expansion. Despite expansion-led coordination complexities, BRICS economies account for over a third of global GDP in PPP terms and a significant share of global trade, reinforcing their importance in global growth strategies. India’s approach signals that economic cooperation within BRICS can remain decoupled from political alignment.
- Under its BRICS presidency theme, “Building for Resilience, Innovation, Cooperation, and Sustainability,” India is driving practical collaboration across energy transition (particularly biofuels, green ammonia), digital infrastructure and payments, and critical supply chains including agriculture and minerals. Within BRICS, this includes deepening India–Brazil cooperation on critical minerals and rare earths, spanning exploration, processing, and technology collaboration to diversify sourcing and strengthen resilience in energy transition and advanced manufacturing value chains.
- Building on its G20 leadership, India will advance Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI) as a core pillar of its BRICS presidency, positioning it as a scalable framework for digital cooperation across emerging markets. India will seek to expand cross-border payment linkages, digital identity frameworks, and public digital rails to enable more seamless trade, financial inclusion, and service delivery, particularly for the Global South. Leveraging the scale of systems such as Unified Payments Interface (UPI), which already processes over 10 billion transactions monthly, India will also push for greater interoperability across countries.
"India’s BRICS presidency marks a strategic shift toward an execution-led economic framework. For businesses, this translates into a tangible agenda centered on supply chain resilience and regulatory coordination.”
Amrit Singh Deo
Senior Managing Director, India
China
- In a fragmented global geopolitical environment, BRICS centers on economic, financial, and development cooperation, supported by institutional mechanisms for political and security coordination. China participates in concrete initiatives, including New Development Bank infrastructure financing, local currency settlement and cross-border payment integration, digital trade, and AI capacity building. These efforts strengthen BRICS’s operational framework and facilitate coordinated implementation of projects across member markets, providing businesses with more predictable opportunities in key sectors.
- Member states may differ in specific positions or actions on regional issues, such as responses to Iran, but maintain high principled consistency: respect for sovereignty, calls for restraint, and advocacy for diplomacy. Institutionalized platforms and multilateral consultation mechanisms support dialogue and coordination, enabling members to align priorities and implement trade, investment, and technology initiatives effectively. China’s participation contributes to the pragmatic coordination of projects without requiring full alignment, helping sustain stable collective outcomes.
- BRICS has developed a distinctive approach to multilateral cooperation: full agreement is not required on all issues, yet members maintain close collaboration on core economic agendas. This flexible model preserves strategic autonomy while expanding emerging market opportunities, promoting sustainable development, and diversifying trade. Internal divergences over expansion, AI cooperation, financial integration, and security measures both shape opportunities and constrain deeper institutionalization, highlighting the balance between ambition, national interests, and external geopolitical constraints.
"BRICS demonstrates that economic cooperation can advance even in the absence of full political or security alignment. Its pragmatic model allows members to pursue shared development priorities while preserving strategic flexibility. Internal differences over expansion, technology initiatives, financial integration, and security coordination both enable opportunities and impose limits. For businesses, this creates practical pathways to engage in trade, finance, energy, and technology sectors, but requires careful navigation of national interests and external geopolitical pressures, including U.S. scrutiny. Overall, the bloc provides a predictable framework for coordinated economic action across member markets in an uncertain global environment."
Xu Zheng
Director, Public Affairs, China
South Africa
- South Africa navigates global fragmentation by refusing to change camps, instead maintaining a pragmatic policy of idealism under strain. This approach prioritises rules-based governance and international law, as seen in Pretoria’s recourse to the ICJ regarding Gaza and its cautious diplomacy during the 2026 Gulf crisis. By engaging with both the Global South and the West, South Africa has been largely effective in protecting its national interests. In an increasingly transactional international system, South Africa is carving out a role as a mediator, enhancing its credibility in international forums.
- For South Africa, the expansion of BRICS+ is primarily an economic strategy aimed at reforming global governance and the international financial architecture. Pretoria views the bloc as a platform for trade, investment, and developmental cooperation, not a security or political alliance. This distinction allows South Africa to deliberately diversify its trade and investment partnerships across BRICS+, especially China and India, as well as the EU, while maintaining trade ties through AGOA with the United States, proving that alignment on all issues is not a prerequisite for partnership.
- Positioning itself as a bridge between the Global South and the G20, South Africa utilises its middle-power status to champion the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). By integrating BRICS+ development potential with the African Union’s Agenda 2063, Pretoria is looking to industrialise regional value chains and reduce external dependencies. This strategy ensures that even as the world fragments, South Africa will try to secure resilient supply chains and attracts investment, protecting the continent’s developmental agenda safe from external shocks.
“South Africa’s strategy in a fragmenting world is rooted in the belief that BRICS is a trade-centric partnership, not a security pact. As a multi-aligned hub, South Africa is becoming a strong example of how countries don't need to be aligned on every geopolitical event to build cross-border value chains that serve both the Global South and traditional Western markets.”
Deerah Pillay-Lungoomiah
Senior Director, Public Affairs, South Africa
At FTI Consulting, we have established a dedicated BRICS working group composed of Public Affairs teams in Brazil, China, South Africa, and India, as well as a Russia specialist based in our London office. This cross-market structure allows us to monitor developments closely, provide localized insights, and support clients in navigating the complex and evolving dynamics of the bloc, as well as its impact on the local business environment. Please see our contact details below to get in touch with the team.
The views expressed in this article are those of the author(s) and not necessarily the views of FTI Consulting, its management, its subsidiaries, its affiliates, or its other professionals.
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