The North American Agenda: Legislative Blitz

“It’s good that the senators are there and I hope they stay like that longer, that they camp there […] we must tell them: senators, hold on; legislators, hold on, the people rise up; keep fighting corruption, keep fighting privileges.”

– commented President Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO) on Morena Senators’ marathon session in which the party fast-tracked the approval of 20 reforms.

Morena Senators’ all-nighter.

On the last day before the summer recess, MORENA Senators fast-tracked the approval of a slate of legislative priorities that the lower chamber had previously also approved along party lines. The final meeting was held behind closed doors and without the participation of opposition parties, after these had occupied the main chamber in an effort to force debate. Many of the bills that were approved advance AMLO’s objectives in sectors ranging from healthcare, transportation, mining, the role of the military, academic freedom, and others. Critics have pointed out procedural inconsistencies – even confusion over the number of votes actually recorded – and questioned the legal validity of this accelerated process. Opposition legislators have already pledged to challenge the reforms’ constitutionality in court.

• Diving deeper: Despite pressure from the executive branch, some of the president’s wide-ranging legislative priorities were ultimately not included in MORENA’s legislative blitz. Elements of the administrative reform package and the proposal to absorb technical agencies into political bodies, which have concerned the private sector, remain queued up for the next legislative session in September.
• Our takeaway: Analysts are left to wonder if the end of this legislative session will set the tone for what will be the final policy-making opportunities of AMLO’s tenure as president. If the end of a regular session caused such a rush, what could be expected of next year’s June-to-September lame-duck period between the presidential elections and the swearing-in of a new Administration?

Uncertainty over Mining Law reforms.

The controversial Mining Law reform was among those passed by the Senate with no further changes to the version sent by the Chamber of Deputies, in spite of warnings from sector experts. Although the lower chamber had taken out the reform’s most damaging clauses upon discussions with the private sector, the measure still reduces concession periods, alters tender procedures, and widens the state’s ability to revoke licenses.

• Diving deeper: Mexico-Canada relations may be particularly affected by the approval, as most foreign investment mining projects in Mexico are Canadian. When the initiative was first sent to the Senate, Minister of International Trade Mary Ng expressed her concerns to Mexico’s Secretary of Economy Raquel Buenrostro that its approval would not only impact foreign investment, but also North American competitiveness. These concerns were later echoed in a meeting with U.S. Trade Representative Katherine Tai after the reforms were passed.
• Our takeaway: Mining and critical minerals are a stated area in which North American governments have agreed to seek regional synergy. Efforts to decarbonize industrial sectors plus policies that codify regional content requirements are expected to spike local demand for such materials. However, these reforms may spook investors from leveraging Mexico’s natural resources, with the potential to slow the regional deployment of energy transition technologies.

USMCA recommends probing Mayan Train’s environmental impact.

The USMCA’s Secretariat of the Commission for Environmental Cooperation (CEC), recommended developing a “factual record” to investigate the environmental impact assessment procedures used in AMLO’s pet infrastructure project, the Mayan Train, which is currently being rushed to completion. CEC will prepare a full impact report if at least two of the three countries vote in its Council to support the measure. The action responds to a Submission on Enforcement Matters filed by various Mexican NGOs.

• Diving deeper: As a domestic Mexican project, the Mayan Train answers to local laws and regulations. While the USMCA has no direct authority over it, if violations of the treaty’s environmental standards are identified, the Mexican government would be obligated to take measures to correct them. Local environmental groups have long decried the train’s construction, which has cut through local jungles and fresh water sinkholes with little prior study of the associated environmental impacts.
• Our takeaway: Regional activist networks have often been dismissed as part of “the opposition” by the AMLO administration. Just this week, AMLO sent a letter to the U.S. government demanding that USAID stop “intervening” in Mexico’s affairs by funding local NGOs. The CEC recommendation demonstrates that these regional NGO networks are – and will remain – an important element of North American’s civil society infrastructure.

Following the Conversation

• “I would like to briefly express to you that for some time the United States government, in particular the United States Agency for International Development, USAID, has dedicated itself to financing organizations openly opposed to the legal and legitimate government that I represent, which is clearly an interventionist act, contrary to international law and the respect that should prevail between free and sovereign States” – read a letter sent from President López Obrador to U.S. President Joe Biden.
•  “The United States’ request to Mexico follows the interests of seed, agrochemical, and other food-producing oligopolies,” said Mexican Deputy Agriculture Minister Victor Suarez regarding the U.S.’s request for technical consultations on Mexico’s ban of biotech corn imports.
• “[I]n the case, for example, of the panel regarding energy […], I would say that the likelihood to reach an agreement is quite high before you reach a panel. That is my forecast, because the incentives are very high.” stated Mexico’s Secretary of Foreign Relations Marcelo Ebrard regarding ongoing trilateral consultations under the USMCA over Mexico’s energy policies.
• “With the Acapulco Declaration, signed on April 26, 2023, by Mexico, Colombia and Cuba […] it is proven that Latin America and the Caribbean exists […] With this declaration, we take aim at […] the promotion of self-sufficiency in medicines, vaccines and medical devices.” – wrote Alejandro Svarch, head of the Federal Commission for the Protection against Sanitary Risks (COFEPRIS), on a new sanitary risk agreement that creates the Medicines Agency of Latin America and the Caribbean (AMLAC).

All translations provided by FTI Consulting.

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