The Goods (U.S. Edition) – One Spray Or Another
Welcome back to The Goods! This week we’re discussing the new Axe body spray that deters dousing, TikTok Shop’s rising influence, and how Punch the monkey’s orangutan plushie from Ikea offers a case study in tariff complexity.
Wearables are heading into new territory, and yes, that includes your gut. Researchers at the University of Maryland are testing a “Fitbit for Farts” (we hated saying it as much as you probably hated reading it). Built using the same miniaturized tech found in smart rings and earbuds, the tiny sensor that tracks digestive activity in real time for the roughly 40% of U.S. adults dealing with GI issues.
What’s In: This Week’s Trends
- One Spray Or Another: Axe body spray is synonymous with teenage boyhood, and for parents and teachers surrounded by teenage boys, it’s synonymous with overdoing it. Even the brand’s parent company Unilever is aware of Axe’s reputation, and they are encouraging their users to tone it down. The company has developed a new spray mechanism that delivers a “lighter, more controlled application” and promises to last 72 hours (seriously, no need to reapply). The smaller bottles, which are expected to provide 10% more sprays for consumers, will be promoted through a complementary campaign dubbed “The History of Overdoing It.”
- Plush Hour: The real frenzy at this year’s Winter Games wasn’t over podium finishes – it was over plushies. Spectators in Milan lined up outside stores, furiously refreshed their browsers and even entertained under-the-table offers to snag Tina and Milo, the event’s stoat mascots. With prices ranging from $21 to $69, the toys sold out across official retailers, making them nearly as hard to obtain as a gold medal. Organizers framed the shortage as enthusiasm for the Games, while Trudi – the Italian toymaker producing the hand-sewn dolls – pointed to limited production timelines.
- Jean Pool: Skinny jeans might currently be out, but the real story is how fast denim cycles are speeding up. Sales of skinny jeans declined in 2021 for the first time in a decade, as looser, wide-leg fits took over and multiple styles began trending at once. For millennials – who are now facing their mom jean era – the shift underscores how TikTok and internet culture can accelerate trend turnover. Waistlines rise and fall and legs widen and narrow, pushing shoppers to keep up with the relevant styles season-by-season. For skinny jean loyalists, there could be some good news: the fit could be due for a revival thanks to 2010s nostalgia and GLP-1 drugs.
Cash or Card: Consumer Behavior
What’s going on with the consumer these days? This week we talk about the “functional but fragile” U.S. consumer, experiential indulgences, and how TikTok shop could soon be bigger than Walmart.
- Split Decision: S. consumers are still spending, they’re just not feeling great about it. Retail sales rose more than 4% year over year in December with volumes up 1.4%, even as consumer sentiment fell to a 10-year low, according to the Conference Board. Nearly 40% of shoppers say they are trading down, using coupons, or cooking at home, showing how budget-conscious behavior now cuts across income levels. The result is a “functional but fragile” consumer who is still buying but thinking twice about nearly every purchase.
- The Sweet Spot: Even as GLP-1 use and the MAHA movement push consumers toward healthier options, indulgent snacks tied to experiences are holding up. J&J Snack Foods, the maker of Dippin’ Dots and Icee, reported $343.8 million in quarterly sales – with nearly two-thirds coming from venues like movie theaters and theme parks where treats are viewed as part of the outing. The company says their “experiential” positioning has kept demand steady despite broader health shifts. Still, the company is testing natural dyes and launching smaller, better-for-you options to stay ahead of potential regulation and changing consumer preferences.
- Tikking Time Bomb: A new report from commerce agency Flywheel projects that TikTok Shop could be responsible for 14.6% of global marketplace share by 2030, which would place it as a top-three global retailer. Walmart, which currently holds the top spot, is projected to rank number five by 2030. “In the U.S., TikTok Shop is the largest social commerce platform and exceeded $15 billion in sales in 2025.” The beauty category currently dominates on the platform, but health & wellness, home goods, and women’s apparel continue to grow.
Making Moves: Industry Transformations & Innovation
ICYMI, even industry icons need to reinvigorate their brand presence through unique and creative ways. Here are some new brand moves that you should know about:
- Chip the Script: With 68% of Gen Z shopping directly on social platforms, PepsiCo is trying to turn scrolling into snacking. The salty snack maker is launching its first creator-led product drop called Flavor Swap, teaming up with singer Madison Beer, streamer iShowSpeed, and trick-shot troupe Dude Perfect to pair popular flavors in unexpected ways. The limited-time lineup – which includes flavors like Lay’s Sweet Southern Heat Barbecue on Cheetos Crunchy, Doritos Cool Ranch on Ruffles, and Ruffles Cheddar & Sour Cream on Doritos – is available now on TikTok Shop ahead of a wider rollout in March.
- Kollaboration is Key: Kim Kardashian has found her latest venture, officially joining clean-energy drink company Update as a co-founder for the brand’s relaunch. Kardashian came on board after “placing large consistent orders” of the product, and “offering unsolicited feedback on flavor, formulation and packaging.” Introduced in 2022, Update is made with paraxanthine, which can apparently provide a similar boost to caffeine without the jitters or crash. Update has relaunched online and is available in more than 4,000 Walmart stores as of March 1.
Capital Markets Corner
What consumer news is moving the market this week? Our investor relations experts break down this week’s trends and headlines.
- Jolly Bean Giant: Keurig Dr Pepper has secured an additional $1.5 billion in equity funding, including backing from T. Rowe Price, as it advances its roughly $18 billion acquisition of JDE Peet’s. The expanded capital raise not only eliminates the need for a partial IPO of its planned Beverage Co. unit, but also reduces projected leverage and strengthens the balance sheet ahead of closing. The financing builds on an earlier $7 billion commitment from Apollo and KKR in October, including $4 billion dedicated to a coffee pod joint venture. The bolstered funding reinforces confidence in the transaction, which is expected to close in April, with a spinoff of the coffee business targeted by year-end.
- Mint Condition: eBay has agreed to acquire fashion resale app Depop from Etsy in an all-cash transaction valued at $1.2 billion. The deal intends to strengthen eBay’s appeal among Gen Z shoppers, a key force behind the growth of secondhand commerce, by incorporating Depop’s fashion-centric, mobile-first marketplace into its broader platform. eBay plans to cross-list products across both platforms and expects the acquisition to drive market share gains. Depop will continue operating under its existing brand, while benefiting from eBay’s payments infrastructure and global shipping capabilities. Etsy, which acquired Depop for $1.6 billion in 2021, is divesting the asset as part of its strategy to streamline operations and refocus on its core marketplace.
Word on the Hill
The WordHours after the Supreme Court struck down tariffs imposed under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act, President Trump signed an executive order imposing new 10% global tariffs under Section 122 of the Trade Act of 1974. The tariffs took effect Tuesday, with plans to increase them to 15%. They expire after 150 days unless Congress extends them.
What It Means: The Court didn’t address refunds on the estimated $150 billion already collected under invalidated tariffs. One justice called the refund process a “mess” – meaning that banking on reimbursement isn’t viable. For retailers, the only certainty is uncertainty as they must engage with Congress to demonstrate tariff impact, while modeling multiple scenarios: 10% rates, 15% rates, expiration in 150 days, or congressional extension. Inventory, pricing, and vendor contracts all require planning for futures that may never materialize or could shift overnight.
Meanwhile, on the Street…IKEA’s Djungelskog orangutan plushie became a viral sensation as the stand-in “mother” to Punch, a baby monkey at Japan’s Ichikawa City Zoo. It’s also a perfect tariff case study. One plushie might contain polyester thread from one country, plastic eyes from another, polyfill from a third, assembled elsewhere, shipped through multiple jurisdictions, and hit with different tariff rates at each stage. If one toy requires that much coordination, imagine managing thousands of SKUs across constantly shifting trade rules.
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