The Goods (U.S. Edition) – Gobble Squabble
Welcome back to The Goods! This week we’re discussing the battle over affordable turkeys, a resurgence in communal dining, and a farewell to orange Cheeto dust.
Macy’s is hosting its 99th annual Thanksgiving Day Parade next week, and while there will be many familiar faces among the floats including the Peanuts and Tom Turkey, seven new floats are also joining the mix. One addition includes a 16-foot tall fuzzy inflatable Labubu, which is the first-ever giant furry balloon to hit the parade stage.
While the parade must go on, The Goods team will be taking off next week for Thanksgiving. Wishing everyone a wonderful holiday! See you in December.
What’s In: This Week’s Trends
- Gobble Squabble: Grocery chains are entering one of the most aggressive Thanksgiving price wars since the pandemic, slashing turkey prices – even selling them at or below cost – to hang onto budget-strapped shoppers. Food prices remain about 30% higher than pre-pandemic, and with nearly 1.3 million turkeys hit by avian flu since October, stores are absorbing costs so consumers don’t have to. Major chains like Walmart, Aldi, and Target are rolling out meal bundles – including some private label items – for around $4 per person, cheaper than previous years. In a tough affordability environment, retailers are willing to take a hit to keep loyal shoppers coming through the door.
- Santa’s Secret: Retailers like Walmart and Target are stuffing shelves with “blind-box” collectibles this holiday season, hoping mystery packaging can spark some magic in a sluggish toy category. Collectibles drove toy growth in the first nine months of 2025 after two flat years, according to Circana, and brands from Barbie to Furby are now embracing the blind-box charm. Labubus helped set off the craze this summer, selling out in minutes and resurfacing online for hundreds to thousands of dollars. With toy costs climbing because of tariffs, the expanding blind-box market offers a cheaper and more accessible alternative to costly collectibles.
- The Store Less Traveled: Heightened fears over immigration raids are reshaping how Hispanic shoppers browse and buy, accelerating a shift toward online shopping and a sharp reduction of in-store foot traffic. Self-reported store visits to mass retailers by Hispanic consumers fell 14.7% between April and June, compared with a 4.5% decline among non-Hispanic shoppers, according to Kantar. At dollar stores, visits dropped nearly 6%, while other groups reported a 3% increase. This trend is hitting small brick-and-mortar shops the hardest, since many lack e-commerce offerings. Hispanics’ buying power is projected to hit $2.8 trillion next year, increasing faster than any other group.
Cash or Card: Consumer Behavior
What’s going on with the consumer these days? This week we talk about America’s love for cheap goods, the resurgence of communal dining, and vintage Ralph Lauren Christmas vibes making a comeback.
- Can You Cheap Up? Americans are addicted to buying cheap stuff, but higher tariffs could reverse the overconsumption mindset of recent years. Imports of the cheapest goods from China and Vietnam rose 36% since 2015 to roughly $176 billion, feeding into a habit of clothing being worn only an average of seven times before being tossed. However, the average tariff on imported goods has risen from 2.5% in 2022 to 13% today, the highest since 1941. Add that to the end of the de minimis shipping exemption, which previously allowed many goods to enter the country tariff-free. While this might give some consumers pause before pressing “buy now,” psychologists and analysts of consumer behavior say it will take a prolonged period of higher prices and lower availability, along with a broader shift in our collective mindset, for shopping habits to change for good.
- Table for Twenty: Gen Z is reviving the polarizing trend of communal dining, which surged in popularity during the 1980’s and early 2000’s. According to online reservation platform Resy, 90% of Gen Z enjoy sharing large tables compared to just 60% of boomers. While some find the idea of rubbing elbows with strangers at dinner cringe-worthy, this generation views it as an opportunity to meet new people and socialize without the stress of carrying the conversation. The move to communal dining appears to be part of Gen Z’s broader shift toward the tangible – along with their reversal back to using flip phones – as they seek experiences that can’t be downloaded, duplicated, or filtered.
- Plaid to Cart 🛒: This holiday season, nostalgia is on everyone’s wish list as shoppers are trimming real trees and buying vintage décor. Searches for antique Christmas décor spiked 102% in September and October compared to last year, with a 563% year-over-year increase throughout the first nine months of the year, according to Yelp. Interest in “Ralph Lauren Christmas” also reached a record high, becoming the most trending Christmas décor search term last month. Although many shoppers are leaning into vintage vibes to revel in their childhood celebrations, Gen Z may also be driving the Ralph Lauren Christmas trend as they seek out cozy holiday elements like plaid tablecloths, vintage cookie jars, and velvet bows that channel the brand’s signature aesthetic.
Making Moves: Industry Transformations & Innovation
ICYMI, even industry icons need to reinvigorate their brand presence through unique and creative ways. Here are some new brand moves that you should know about:
- They See Me Scrolling: Ford is partnering with Amazon to offer franchised dealers a way to sell certified pre-owned vehicles online. The new program will allow customers to handle financing, begin filling out paperwork, and schedule pickup from their couch – though they’ll still need to sign on the dotted line in person. So far, over 160 of Ford’s 2,900 U.S. dealers have started the process, with a dozen fully onboarded and more launching soon. The deal comes two years after Amazon said it would allow auto dealers to sell cars through its site, which started with new vehicles from Hyundai.
- When It’s All Red and Done: Pepsi is rolling out “Simply NKD” Cheetos and Doritos made without artificial flavors and dyes, resulting in uncharacteristically pale yellow snacks that leave zero orange evidence on your fingers. The company says the flavors are identical to the originals, and they have the verification of expert taste testers to prove it. Hitting stores on December 1, the launch is part of a broader push toward “better-for-you” snacks as PepsiCo is feeling the pressure of the MAHA movement, activist investors, and a 5% dip in its stock. Whether fans will embrace Flamin’ Hot Cheetos that look decidedly not hot remains to be seen.
Capital Markets Corner
What consumer news is moving the market this week? Our investor relations experts break down this week’s trends and headlines.
- After Shareful Review…The White House is weighing sweeping changes to shareholder voting, with draft plans that could curb the influence of proxy-advisory firms such as Institutional Shareholder Services and Glass Lewis, and restrict key index-fund managers like BlackRock, Vanguard, and State Street from voting on behalf of clients unless they mirror client instructions. Proxy advisors – which are under scrutiny from leaders such as JP Morgan’s Jamie Dimon and Tesla’s Elon Musk – provide asset managers with voting recommendations on shareholder ballot items such as director elections, executive compensation, and shareholder proposals. Options under review range from an outright ban on voting recommendations, to limits on firms that serve both companies and funds. The policies, if enacted, could significantly impact voting outcomes at annual shareholder meetings.
Word on the Hill
The Word 🏛️ Affordability is the operative word in Washington these days, especially after Democratic candidates won this month’s gubernatorial races in Virginia and New Jersey by doubling down on this issue in their campaigns. Trump, in a speech to franchise owners and operators at Tuesday’s McDonald’s Impact Summit, said Republicans should “reclaim” the affordability mantle, and his administration’s decision last week to roll back tariffs on grocery staples like bananas and coffee was seen as a quiet acknowledgement that consumers are hungry for relief.
Affordability is easier promised than delivered. Even as inflation eases, an à la carte Big Mac still costs about $6.01 – up from $5.69 a year ago – according to The Economist’s Big Mac Index, which has tracked the price of the burger in countries across the globe for nearly 40 years as an informal measure of the strength of the dollar.
For its part, McDonald’s recently brought back $5 and $8 Extra Value Meal options for the first time since 2019. That proactive move paid off. Trump told McDonald’s Summit attendees: “I want to give a very special thanks to McDonald’s for slashing prices for your most popular items, bringing back Extra Value Meals.”
What it means: Success, in retail as in politics, requires keeping a pulse on the needs of the people – your voters, constituents, and consumers. Rather than waiting for slow-moving policy changes or economic shifts, McDonald’s understood that it had to keep its products affordable and accessible to its consumer base. While a cheaper Value Meal won’t deliver much relief beyond the drive-thru window, consumers’ growing frustration with the lack of relief from Washington may increasingly extend to retailers, especially those known for value and affordability.
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