The Goods (U.S. Edition) – Euro-ver Budget
Welcome back to The Goods! Welcome back to The Goods! This week we’re discussing the cost of European vacations, why fast-casual restaurants are betting big on loyalty programs, and how much consumers are shelling out for their summer cookouts.
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What’s In: This Week’s Trends
- All That Glitters is Old: The price of gold has spiked 60% since early 2024, driving up costs for contemporary jewelry brands already navigating tariffs and inflationary pressure. Meanwhile, vintage jewelry proves to be a hidden gem, with dealers seeing strong momentum and reporting monthly sales bumps of sometimes 50% annual growth since 2020. Vintage jewelry is largely protected from economic volatility, and current consumer trends – like a shifting preference for one-of-a-kind jewelry and younger generations’ growing preference for pre-owned items – has created a booming business for vintage dealers during an otherwise turbulent time for the jewelry industry.
- Prime is Ticking: Online spending is expected to reach $23.8 billion during the 96-hour Amazon Prime Day event this week, marking a 28.4% increase in sales compared to the 48-hour event last year. According to Adobe Analytics, the projected spending is equivalent to that of two Black Fridays, as cost-conscious Americans frequently turn to features like Buy Now Pay Later and generative AI to find the best deals. Clothing is expected to have the steepest discounts at 24%, up from 20% last year.
- Euro-ver Budget: Jetting off to Europe this summer might be a steal as airfares are down 10% from last year, but the affordable vacation will end at the airport. The U.S. dollar has weakened against the euro and pound amid the ongoing trade war, leaving Americans with a tighter budget on their European vacations. In the first half of 2025, the dollar index fell 10.3% – the worst mid-year performance since 1973 – meaning that hotel and theater tickets cost more in European currency. While nearly one third of Americans express reduced interest in traveling due to the current state of the U.S. economy, 47% say they’re likely to travel abroad within the next year.
Cash or Card: Consumer Behavior
What’s going on with the consumer these days? This week we talk about the cost of cookouts, the glow up of store-brands, and why fast casual chains are leaning into loyalty programs.
- Footing the Grill: Consumers this summer are shelling out to cook out. The Joint Economic Committee’s Democratic minority arm found that the cost of a grocery trip for summer barbeque essentials has risen by 12.7%. The steepest price increases hit crucial cookout gear like camping chairs and griddle accessories kits, whereas prices on sunscreen, aluminum foil, and propane grills rose moderately. Beer drinkers also paid 13% more on domestic fan favorites like Miller Lite and Coors Light, and up to 10.5% more on foreign brews. It is estimated that the cost of a 10-person barbeque hit $100 for the first time, an increase of 4.2% this year.
- Generics Glow Up: As grocery prices have risen 23% over the past five years, shoppers are more open to trying store-brand dupes – and some consumers don’t even know they’re trading down. Last year, S. sales of store-brand or private-label products rose nearly 4% to a record $271 billion. A survey conducted by First Insight found that 72% of consumers were unable to differentiate in-house brands from their name-brand counterparts, despite 71% thinking they knew when they were buying a private-label item. Grocery stores have abandoned old, stripped-down packaging in favor of sleeker designs to highlight product value and entice consumers with cheaper prices.
- The Loyal Treatment: Amid recent pullbacks in discretionary spending, fast-casual restaurants are overhauling their loyalty programs in an attempt to reengage cost-conscious consumers. As fast-casual chains like Starbucks and Chipotle have experienced same-store sales declines, they are hoping revamped rewards programs will build brand loyalty and bring customers through the door. Loyalty program members visit restaurants 22% more frequently per year than non-member consumers. By expanding customer benefits like limited offers, in-app challenges, and seasonal campaigns, these chains are betting that promotions will encourage customers to buy more, and more often.
Making Moves: Industry Transformations & Innovation
ICYMI, even industry icons need to reinvigorate their brand presence through unique and creative ways. Here are some new brand moves that you should know about:
- Taste the Rainbow: As U.S. Health and Human Services Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. continues to push for eliminating synthetic food dyes with his MAHA movement, big names like Kraft Heinz, Nestlé and General Mills have already pledged to remove them from products. However, the candy industry – led by Mars and its iconic M&Ms – remains resistant to the change, citing challenges like higher costs and less vibrant natural alternatives. Mars found that while consumers wanted artificial colors removed from foods they ate as part of meals, there was a split in their attitudes about candy: European consumers wanted the dyes removed, but American consumers preferred the artificially-colored treats.
- Absorbent, Not Exorbitant: Disposable diapers are a $60 billion industry…and an environmental nightmare. It is estimated that 300,000 diapers end up in landfills every minute. To address this challenge for eco-conscious parents, ZymoChem is brewing up a cleaner solution by using a beer-like fermentation process to create a biodegradable, super absorbent polymer made from sugar. The material can be added to existing diaper brands, offering manufacturers an easy alternative to the fossil-based plastics that make up 60% to 80% of a typical diaper. Though not yet on the market, the product has raised $35 million from investors like Toyota Ventures and Lululemon, with Lululemon planning to use the material in its leggings.
- Aged Cheddar: Chuck E. Cheese is leveling up with Chuck’s Arcade, a new adult-focused experience featuring nostalgic hits like Mortal Kombat and Ms. Pac-Man alongside modern titles like Halo and Jurassic Park. Now open in cities from St. Louis to El Paso, each location boasts custom artwork and is overseen by one of the company’s classic animatronic characters. After filing for bankruptcy in 2020, Chuck E. Cheese invested $350 million into rebranding its arcades, rolling out digital ticketing and adult-friendly menus as part of a broader effort to attract a more mature audience as younger demographics opt for digital entertainment.
Capital Markets Corner
What consumer news is moving the market this week? Our investor relations experts break down this week’s trends and headlines.
- A Sweet New Gig: On Tuesday, Wendy’s announced that its CEO, Kirk Tanner, will be departing after less than 18 months to become Hershey’s new president and chief executive. According to an analyst at Consumer Edge, Tanner’s exit comes at a “potentially inopportune time” for Wendy’s, which has struggled with muted sales and seen its share price decline 31% this year. Tanner’s appointment marks an unprecedented move by the Hershey’s Board and Trust to select an external candidate for its top spot, as the company’s current CEO Michelle Buck was an internal promote. The Trust’s decision to back an external hire could make Hershey less vulnerable to a takeover, as the company has faced several attempts over the years, most recently by Mondelez in December.
- Tried and Brew: It’s a sobering time for the beer industry, which is grappling with muted sales driven by a number of trends including the rise of GLP-1 drugs, younger adults favoring canned cocktails or nonalcoholic drinks, expanding cannabis legalization, and recent tariff hikes on aluminum. Against this challenging backdrop, Michelob Ultra has distinguished itself within Anheuser-Busch InBev’s portfolio by catering to health-conscious consumers. According to an analysis of NIQ data by Goldman Sachs, U.S. store sales of Michelob Ultra grew by 3.1% in the 12 weeks ended June 14, compared to the year-ago period. The growth of Michelob Ultra stands out amid a broader downturn in the beer industry. During its earnings last week, Modelo-maker Constellation Brands reported a 6% year-over-year decline in beer sales.
Tariffs, Ands or Buts
This year, patriotic celebrations may have been slightly subdued as tariffs disrupted supply chains for fireworks and other Independence Day necessities, causing price hikes and scarcities. Researchers predicted a 5% decrease in Fourth of July celebrations this year, as many consumers cut back on costly celebrations. Industry experts warn there’s a real risk of product shortages and significantly higher prices in 2026 – just in time for America’s 250th birthday.
This week, President Trump shared screenshots of letters on social media platform Truth Social outlining new tariff rates of 14 countries that will be effective August 1. Countries such as Japan and Malaysia will face a 25% tariff, while a heftier duty of 40% will be imposed on Laos and Myanmar.
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