The 2022 Australian Federal Election

Along with the rest of the world, Australia has had to contend with the changing phases of the COVID-19 pandemic over the last three years. The public health challenge soon became a global lockdown and, while Australia initially fared better than some of its contemporaries, the challenges of administering the vaccine rollout and responding to the Delta and Omicron variants has put enormous pressure on the Australian Government.

The crisis in Ukraine remains a major geopolitical issue for the Government and also continues to put pressure on the cost of living, fuel prices, and supply chains for Australians. On top of these global issues, Australia has also faced devastating floods in 2022, and months of catastrophic bushfires through the summer of 2019 and 2020. Prime Minister Scott Morrison MP and the Liberal National Coalition have also failed to pass a number of key legislative commitments, while concurrently defending itself against intense political attacks – from both outside the Government and within – on a range of high-profile social issues[1].

It has clearly been a turbulent and testing term and, if the content and reaction to the recent handing down of the Federal Budget is any indication[2], the coming election is likely to be the culmination of one of the hardest-fought and contentious campaigns in recent years[3].

The result[4] is likely to come down to voting in a small number of marginal seats across the country. While the Coalition is in a difficult position, currently holding only a one-seat majority, it has often been easier for an incumbent to hold what they have, rather than an opposition try to gain government.

Broadly, most agree there are four possible outcomes, a victory by either the Coalition or the Australian Labor Party, or a minority government formed by either side with the support of independents. The importance of smaller parties and independent candidates has increased significantly and may well dictate the outcome of this election.

With the election looming, we want to provide some information on the possibilities and potential outcomes and what business can do to navigate this uncertain landscape.

Put simply, Australia’s new policy and regulatory regime for the next three years will be decided in May – if the Coalition wins outright, it will be business as usual. If they depend on independents in a minority government, the independents will hold sway over policy and regulation.

If Labor wins (or a Labor Minority Government occurs), there will be a substantial shift in policy and regulation. It will be critical for business, especially those in heavily regulated sectors, to be agile and adjust business plans to respond to the impact of new policy.

In these unprecedented times, it might seem like the only certainty is uncertainty, but we can explore the implications of the upcoming election and how best to prepare for what comes next.