Sinn Féin’s Poor Performance: The story that has dominated the political airwaves in the aftermath of the election has been the poor performance of Sinn Féin. While the party performed better than in the 2019 local elections, results show a collapse in support for the party, receiving just 10.7% in local elections and 14.3% in the European elections.^[5]  This performance follows on from a steady decline in opinion polls in the months building up to these elections, with the results showing the drop was a real trend. With a general election likely to be called before the end of the year, it will be interesting to see how Sinn Féin attempts to halt and reverse this slide. They will likely take solace in the fact that they performed poorly in the 2019 local and European elections, but then eight months later had their strongest electoral performance in modern history in the 2020 General Election. While a usually higher voter turnout at general elections will give them hope, Sinn Féin will also likely return to focusing on core issues facing the electorate, principally housing and cost of living.

Increase in support for Independents: Sinn Féin’s poor performance left an opening for other parties and candidates to make gains. While Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil have performed better than expected, it is the growth in support for independent candidates who have polled at 19.5% and 14% local and European elections respectively.^[5] If they were a singular party, then they would be one of the largest parties in the country. It is also worth noting that, the rise in support does not equate to a rise in right wing politics in Ireland, with the candidates elected spanning from the far-left to the far-right. independents have played key roles in forming previous governments in Ireland, going so far as securing senior ministerial positions in return for their support. If independent candidates also receive such large support in the next general election, it will be interesting to see if any find themselves in a similar position.

Smaller parties hold their own: There was concern ahead of these elections that the smaller political parties – particularly the Green Party, The Labour Party and Social Democrats – would perform poorly. However, similar to Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael, they have outperformed their expectations, holding their ground and in some constituencies improving their support. The Social Democrats, a party only founded in 2015, in particular will be pleased as they have almost doubled their seats since the 2019 local elections. This, coupled with the performance of independents, is a significant development as the next Irish Government will likely need support of smaller parties or independents – either as a coalition member or through a confidence and supply arrangement – to be formed. It has been suggested in recent months that The Labour Party and Social Democrats – both centre left parties – should consider a merger and based on final vote results, they would have similar sized support to Sinn Féin. For now, both parties have ruled out such a move.^[6]

Rise of far right fails to materialise: Ahead of these elections, there was much debate regarding the rise of the far right in Ireland, particularly on the back of an increase in anti-immigration protests and sentiment across Ireland. However, it is clear from the voting results – particularly at local level – that there was no big surge in support for the far right5. While there were independent candidates who campaigned on an immigration-sceptic message, Fine Gael, and Fianna Fáil’s pivot to a harder stance on the issue meant that the overall voting preference did not drift too far from the centre. However, the far-right made some minor gains, with The National Party’s Patrick Quinlan successfully elected to Fingal County Council, becoming the party’s first elected representative. Despite this, Ireland would appear to be an outlier in Europe, where there has been a clearer swing to the right most noticeably in Germany and France.