FTI Consulting UK Public Affairs Snapshot: Vaughan Gething: A new First Minister for Wales

This paves the way for Gething’s appointment as the new First Minister of Wales on Wednesday, when he will become the first black leader of a government anywhere in Europe.

The appointment follows a divisive leadership contest that pitted the former Economy and Health Minister against Education Minister Jeremy Miles.

Undoubtedly the most high-profile of the two candidates and a political centrist, Gething became the first black minister in any of the devolved nations in 2013, before rising up the ministerial ladder to Health and, most recently, Economy Minister. When he announced his candidacy in December, Gething was quickly installed as the bookmakers’ favourite.

Yet the election campaign proved to be far from smooth, with Gething facing a great deal of criticism over his acceptance of a £200,000 campaign donation from a company run by a man convicted of environmental offences.

Plaid Cymru, which has a cooperation agreement with the Labour administration in the Senedd, has called for the money to be paid back, although Gething has made no commitment to do so.

Compounding this, in the final weeks of the campaign, Gething also faced criticism following his appearance at the UK Covid inquiry, when he admitted that all of his WhatsApp messages sent during the pandemic had been deleted.

In the end, Gething only snuck over the winning line with 51.7 per cent of the vote, seemingly advantaged by the long window for postal votes to be returned.

Indeed, in what could be an immediate test for Gething, his opponent secured the plurality of support of Labour members of the Senedd. Aware of this, Gething promised in his acceptance speech to meet the biggest challenges facing Wales, including the cost-of-living crisis, improving the Welsh NHS, and driving up educational standards.

In the run up to this year’s General Election, the Labour Party in Westminster will undoubtedly try to position Gething and Wales as an example of successful Labour government in action – even as opposition parties seek to highlight blemishes on Labour’s record in Wales in order to signal the exact opposite.

Nevertheless, after such a tumultuous leadership campaign, Gething will first need to overcome the twin challenge of uniting Welsh Labour and repairing his tarnished public image with the wider Welsh electorate. He will certainly want to avoid unfavourable comparisons to his predecessor’s reliable if technocratic persona.

According to polling prior to the result being announced, 62% of people in Wales – most of whom did not have a vote in this Labour-only ballot – answered “Don’t Know” when asked whether Gething or Miles would make the better First Minister.

Evidently, Gething has some way to go in convincing the wider Welsh public that he is indeed the right man for the job.

To do this, Gething must grapple with a set of challenging circumstances left behind by the outgoing First Minister, including environmental policies that has led to angered demonstrations by farmers and the contentious introduction of a new 20mph default speed limit.

Coincidentally, today is the day that Welsh police are also set to begin enforcing the new speed limits with full rigour, which will only provide new oxygen to vocal opponents of the scheme.

For their part, the Welsh Conservatives are already painting Gething as a continuity of the Drakeford administration, with its leader, Andrew RT Davies, arguing that Gething has been part of the team that has “presided over record NHS waiting lists, the steepest decline in educational standards in the UK, the highest business rates in Britain, and is committed to the 20mph speed limit”.

Under Drakeford, the Welsh Government has been allowed to rumble away quietly with these issues under the cover of turbulence in Westminster.

However, if – as polls predict – Labour wins this year’s election, Gething will have a very different operating climate to his predecessor, with less space for pinning failure on Westminster with Keir Starmer as Prime Minister.

Of course, such an outcome will also mean that – for the first time in more than 14 years – the UK Government and a devolved administration will be run by the same party, something that Gething will want to exploit to Welsh advantage.

With two years until Welsh voters elect a new Senedd, it is that relationship which is set to define Gething’s leadership and provide the context for his and Labour’s re-election campaign in 2026.